{"id":1267076,"date":"2025-07-24T14:18:52","date_gmt":"2025-07-24T11:18:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/information-about-russia-s-plans-to-increase-production-of-attack-drones-must-be-taken-with-a-grain-of-salt\/"},"modified":"2025-07-26T08:29:11","modified_gmt":"2025-07-26T05:29:11","slug":"information-about-russia-s-plans-to-increase-production-of-attack-drones-must-be-taken-with-a-grain-of-salt","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/information-about-russia-s-plans-to-increase-production-of-attack-drones-must-be-taken-with-a-grain-of-salt\/","title":{"rendered":"Drone Hype or Drone Bluff? Russia\u2019s Production Claims Under Scrutiny"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Russia is preparing for a new escalation in Ukraine \u2014 according to Bundeswehr General Christian Freiding, Moscow may soon unleash swarms of up to 2,000 Shahed drones in a single coordinated assault. The goal: overwhelm Ukrainian defenses and shift the war\u2019s momentum through mass destruction.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"139\" data-end=\"432\">Russia is significantly expanding its drone production capacity, and the anticipated increase in attacks will present a serious challenge to Ukraine\u2019s air defense system, according to Major General Christian Freiding, head of the Situation Center for Ukraine at the German Ministry of Defense.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"434\" data-end=\"675\">Earlier, Ukrainian commentators described reports about Russia\u2019s preparations to scale up drone assaults as speculative. Claims circulated that the Russian military would soon be capable of launching up to a thousand attack drones per night.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"677\" data-end=\"889\">In response, the Ukrainian Air Force urged caution in interpreting such projections. Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for the Air Force, emphasized that such narratives are often amplified by Russian propaganda outlets.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"891\" data-end=\"1129\">\u201cI urge analysts \u2014 both domestic and international \u2014 to treat these figures with care. As we\u2019ve seen, Russian state media, including the Zvezda TV channel, quickly circulated a pre-produced video in support of this narrative,\u201d Ihnat said.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1131\" data-end=\"1291\">Despite publicized claims of scaling up drone operations to unprecedented levels, there is currently no evidence of such mass production or deployment capacity.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1293\" data-end=\"1363\">The recent timeline of Russian drone activity reveals a mixed picture:<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1365\" data-end=\"1838\">\n<li data-start=\"1365\" data-end=\"1689\">\n<p data-start=\"1367\" data-end=\"1689\">On the night of <strong data-start=\"1383\" data-end=\"1394\">July 21<\/strong>, Russia conducted a large-scale airstrike on Ukraine, deploying kamikaze drones, cruise and ballistic missiles, including Kinzhal-type aeroballistic missiles. According to the Ukrainian Air Force, the assault included at least <strong data-start=\"1622\" data-end=\"1655\">200 Shaped-type attack drones<\/strong> and an additional <strong data-start=\"1674\" data-end=\"1688\">200 decoys<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1691\" data-end=\"1838\">\n<p data-start=\"1693\" data-end=\"1838\">On the night of <strong data-start=\"1709\" data-end=\"1720\">July 22<\/strong>, Russian forces launched another wave consisting of <strong data-start=\"1773\" data-end=\"1793\">42 Shahed drones<\/strong> along with various types of drone imitators.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On July 23, Russian occupiers launched 71 Shaped-type attack UAVs and various types of drone imitators into Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"149\" data-end=\"452\">The available statistics indicate that Russia does <strong data-start=\"200\" data-end=\"207\">not<\/strong> possess the capability to launch one thousand attack drones at once against Ukraine. The actual number of drones that Russian forces can use simultaneously is <strong data-start=\"367\" data-end=\"390\">significantly lower<\/strong> than the exaggerated figures circulated in public statements.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"454\" data-end=\"700\">Russia\u2019s <strong data-start=\"463\" data-end=\"488\">total annual capacity<\/strong> for producing attack drones is estimated at <strong data-start=\"533\" data-end=\"555\">up to 50,000 units<\/strong>. However, following successful strikes by Ukrainian defense forces on military-industrial production facilities, this capacity has been reduced.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"702\" data-end=\"994\">Claims that Russia can deploy thousands of drones per day should be viewed as components of an <strong data-start=\"797\" data-end=\"847\">information and psychological operation (IPSO)<\/strong> aimed at sowing fear and undermining confidence. A breakdown of Russia\u2019s actual drone production infrastructure helps to clarify the real picture.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"996\" data-end=\"1357\">One key facility is the <strong data-start=\"1020\" data-end=\"1038\">Yelabuga plant<\/strong>, built in 2023 with the involvement of Iranian specialists. Initially designed to produce <strong data-start=\"1129\" data-end=\"1154\">6,000 drones per year<\/strong>, the plant expanded its capacity to approximately <strong data-start=\"1205\" data-end=\"1230\">10,000 units annually<\/strong> after modernization. A similar production site, the <strong data-start=\"1283\" data-end=\"1298\">Kupol plant<\/strong> in Izhevsk, manufactures up to <strong data-start=\"1330\" data-end=\"1356\">15,000 drones per year<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1359\" data-end=\"1509\">Another facility, the <strong data-start=\"1381\" data-end=\"1405\">Kronstadt enterprise<\/strong> in Dubna (Moscow region), was targeted in a Ukrainian drone attack and has since <strong data-start=\"1487\" data-end=\"1508\">ceased operations<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1511\" data-end=\"1784\">Thus, the <strong data-start=\"1521\" data-end=\"1547\">maximum total capacity<\/strong> of the Russian Federation to produce loitering munitions such as the <strong data-start=\"1617\" data-end=\"1628\">Geran-2<\/strong> and <strong data-start=\"1633\" data-end=\"1644\">Geran-3<\/strong> is currently around <strong data-start=\"1665\" data-end=\"1700\">45,000 to 50,000 units per year<\/strong>, which rules out the possibility of deploying thousands of drones in a single day.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"188\" data-end=\"461\">According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the Russian Federation currently produces up to <strong data-start=\"322\" data-end=\"371\">170 attack drones and drone imitators per day<\/strong>. By the end of the year, this figure could increase to approximately <strong data-start=\"441\" data-end=\"460\">190 units daily<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"463\" data-end=\"989\">Ukrainian drones operated by the Defense Forces and military intelligence have repeatedly targeted not only facilities directly involved in drone production but also those responsible for manufacturing key components. For example, a <strong data-start=\"696\" data-end=\"716\">plant in Saransk<\/strong>, the only facility in Russia that produces <strong data-start=\"760\" data-end=\"792\">fiber-optic cable for drones<\/strong>, was struck. Ukrainian forces also conducted successful strikes on a <strong data-start=\"862\" data-end=\"883\">factory in Yelets<\/strong> that produced <strong data-start=\"898\" data-end=\"920\">batteries for UAVs<\/strong>, and a <strong data-start=\"928\" data-end=\"950\">facility in Tambov<\/strong>, also involved in drone manufacturing.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"991\" data-end=\"1149\">On <strong data-start=\"994\" data-end=\"1005\">June 24<\/strong>, a <strong data-start=\"1009\" data-end=\"1044\">strike on the Atlant-Aero plant<\/strong> in Taganrog, Rostov Region, disrupted the production of <strong data-start=\"1101\" data-end=\"1148\">combat drone components and control systems<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1151\" data-end=\"1616\">Following Israeli and U.S. airstrikes on drone production facilities in <strong data-start=\"1223\" data-end=\"1231\">Iran<\/strong>, the flow of both components and completed systems to Russia has significantly decreased. As a result, the Russian Federation is reportedly <strong data-start=\"1372\" data-end=\"1444\">exploring the option of transferring drone production to North Korea<\/strong>, seeking to scale up manufacturing by exploiting <strong data-start=\"1494\" data-end=\"1513\">low labor costs<\/strong>. This scenario also suggests the possibility of <strong data-start=\"1562\" data-end=\"1615\">supplying drones to the North Korean armed forces<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1618\" data-end=\"1899\">It is important to emphasize that there is <strong data-start=\"1661\" data-end=\"1690\">nothing fundamentally new<\/strong> in the Russian tactics related to drone strikes against Ukrainian territory. The attacks remain <strong data-start=\"1787\" data-end=\"1817\">predictable in methodology<\/strong>, with periodic escalation depending on logistical capacity and political context.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"144\" data-end=\"614\">The Russians continue to replicate tactics first employed by Ukraine. One such method is the so-called <strong data-start=\"247\" data-end=\"265\">\u201cswarm\u201d attack<\/strong>, in which dozens of drones approach a target simultaneously to penetrate a layered air defense system. During the most recent large-scale assault, <strong data-start=\"426\" data-end=\"452\">up to 50 Shahed drones<\/strong> targeted Kyiv. The underlying idea is that even if the majority are intercepted, a few \u2014 <strong data-start=\"542\" data-end=\"558\">five or more\u2014will<\/strong>\u00a0break through and strike their intended targets.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"616\" data-end=\"1052\">For context: <strong data-start=\"629\" data-end=\"696\">even the world\u2019s most advanced multi-layered air defense system<\/strong>, such as Israel\u2019s \u2014 which integrates <strong data-start=\"734\" data-end=\"792\">Israeli, American, British, and Jordanian technologies<\/strong> \u2014 intercepted only <strong data-start=\"812\" data-end=\"833\">approximately 84%<\/strong> of incoming threats during its last test under combat conditions. This means <strong data-start=\"911\" data-end=\"933\">16% of projectiles<\/strong> still reached their targets, despite the presence of systems like the <strong data-start=\"1004\" data-end=\"1017\">Iron Dome<\/strong> and advanced Western interceptors.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1054\" data-end=\"1290\">It is essential to recognize that <strong data-start=\"1088\" data-end=\"1153\">no air defense system in the world guarantees 100% protection<\/strong>. As such, criticism of Ukrainian air defense over occasional missile or UAV hits is <strong data-start=\"1238\" data-end=\"1289\">unfounded and ignores global military realities<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1292\" data-end=\"1692\"><strong data-start=\"1292\" data-end=\"1334\">Geographical shifts in Russian attacks<\/strong> also warrant attention. The number of strikes in <strong data-start=\"1384\" data-end=\"1414\">western regions of Ukraine<\/strong> \u2014 including <strong data-start=\"1427\" data-end=\"1480\">Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Ternopil, Rivne, and Lutsk<\/strong> \u2014 is increasing. These attacks serve a psychological purpose: to <strong data-start=\"1546\" data-end=\"1619\">signal to the civilian population that no part of the country is safe<\/strong>, thereby aiming to <strong data-start=\"1639\" data-end=\"1659\">undermine morale<\/strong> and <strong data-start=\"1664\" data-end=\"1691\">erode public confidence<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1694\" data-end=\"2077\">It is worth recalling that on <strong data-start=\"1724\" data-end=\"1746\">September 30, 2022<\/strong>, the <strong data-start=\"1752\" data-end=\"1772\">Kremlin\u2019s leader<\/strong> referenced <strong data-start=\"1784\" data-end=\"1808\">World War II tactics<\/strong> in a speech, accusing Allied forces of opening a \u201cPandora\u2019s box\u201d with <strong data-start=\"1879\" data-end=\"1943\">the carpet-bombing of German cities like Cologne and Dresden<\/strong>. This narrative appears to inform current Russian military propaganda and their justification for terror tactics targeting civilians.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"100\" data-end=\"397\">Back in <strong data-start=\"108\" data-end=\"116\">2022<\/strong>, the <strong data-start=\"122\" data-end=\"142\">Russian dictator<\/strong> openly signaled to Western governments his readiness to <strong data-start=\"199\" data-end=\"219\">target civilians<\/strong> and <strong data-start=\"224\" data-end=\"259\">destroy civilian infrastructure<\/strong> in Ukrainian cities. His remarks were not rhetorical \u2014 they laid the groundwork for what has since become a sustained campaign of terror.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"399\" data-end=\"738\">The <strong data-start=\"403\" data-end=\"473\">escalation in the frequency and scale of drone and missile attacks<\/strong> should also be viewed as a deliberate tool of <strong data-start=\"520\" data-end=\"555\">military and political coercion<\/strong>. Russia is attempting to pressure Ukraine\u2019s leadership by intensifying strikes on the civilian population \u2014 a textbook tactic of hybrid warfare aimed at weakening internal stability.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"740\" data-end=\"1189\">Therefore, <strong data-start=\"751\" data-end=\"856\">claims about Russia\u2019s \u201cplans\u201d to dramatically increase drone production must be approached critically<\/strong>. Such statements are often <strong data-start=\"884\" data-end=\"903\">strategic tools<\/strong>, designed either to exert psychological pressure on Ukraine and its allies or to serve as <strong data-start=\"994\" data-end=\"1017\">internal propaganda<\/strong>. Not all of these plans will materialize, especially in light of the continued success of <strong data-start=\"1109\" data-end=\"1141\">Ukrainian preemptive strikes<\/strong> on key components of Russia\u2019s defense industry.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Also, follow&#8221; <strong>Pryamyi &#8221; <\/strong>on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Facebook<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/prm_ua\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Twitter<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/+rtV4dxYu2_cyNjVi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Telegram<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Instagram.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Russia is preparing for a new escalation in Ukraine \u2014 according to Bundeswehr General Christian Freiding, Moscow may soon unleash swarms of up to 2,000 Shahed drones in a single coordinated assault. The goal: overwhelm Ukrainian defenses and shift the war\u2019s momentum through mass destruction.\u00a0 &nbsp; Russia is significantly expanding its drone production capacity, and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":923556,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76871,76872,76874,76875,76991],"class_list":["post-1267076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-2","category-news-feed","category-war","category-other-news","category-opinions"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1267076","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1267076"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1267076\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1267661,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1267076\/revisions\/1267661"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/923556"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1267076"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1267076"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}