{"id":1276728,"date":"2025-08-06T15:47:29","date_gmt":"2025-08-06T12:47:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/nuclear-blackmail-or-putins-miscalculation-why-russia-is-lifting-the-missile-moratorium\/"},"modified":"2025-08-07T04:15:23","modified_gmt":"2025-08-07T01:15:23","slug":"nuclear-blackmail-or-putins-miscalculation-why-russia-is-lifting-the-missile-moratorium","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/nuclear-blackmail-or-putins-miscalculation-why-russia-is-lifting-the-missile-moratorium\/","title":{"rendered":"Lifting a Moratorium That Never Existed: Moscow\u2019s Missile Theatre Continues"},"content":{"rendered":"

The occupying country has officially<\/em> announced its withdrawal from the moratorium on the deployment of ground-based intermediate- and shorter-range missiles \u2014 a decision that surprised absolutely no one, except perhaps its diplomats.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Recently, the Russian Foreign Ministry declared that it no longer considers itself \u201cbound by a moratorium\u201d on the deployment of such weapons. The statement, cloaked in the usual fog of strategic victimhood, claimed:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cThe United States and its allies have not only publicly outlined plans to deploy American land-based INF (intermediate- and short-range missiles) in various regions, but have already made significant progress in practically implementing these intentions.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

The Ministry added that any deployment decisions will be made \u201cbased on an interdepartmental analysis of the scale of U.S. and other Western missile deployments, as well as the overall development of the international security situation and strategic stability.\u201d In other words, we\u2019ll do it when we feel like it<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Notably, Russia had for some time avoided giving clear responses to U.S. actions, apparently hoping the situation would quietly resolve itself. This hesitation betrayed a degree of confusion, as if Moscow didn\u2019t quite anticipate the shift in Washington’s tone. For decades, the Kremlin wielded the nuclear card as a tool of psychological pressure, while successive U.S. administrations, particularly under Obama and later Biden, responded with studied restraint, treating the bluster as little more than background noise.<\/p>\n

But then came Donald Trump.<\/p>\n

Never one for subtlety, Trump dismissed diplomatic dance routines entirely. \u201cMedvedev talked about nuclear weapons \u2014 when you talk about nuclear weapons, we have to be ready. We are fully prepared,\u201d he proclaimed, as if casually announcing the weather forecast. The bluntness reportedly left the Kremlin momentarily stunned, unused as it was to being out-blustered.<\/p>\n

Following Trump\u2019s comments, Washington\u2019s rhetorical shift began to materialize in military terms. According to the UK Defense Journal<\/em>, the United States may have transferred several B61-12 thermonuclear gravity bombs to RAF Lakenheath in Suffolk, UK \u2014 a quiet little village now potentially sitting atop several megatons of diplomacy.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

https:\/\/ukdefencejournal.org.uk\/us-nukes-deployed-to-england-for-first-time-in-over-a-decade\/<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Hans M. Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, stated there were \u201cstrong indications\u201d that the United States had returned its nuclear weapons to the United Kingdom. \u201cThere is strong evidence that the US has returned nuclear weapons to the UK… Returning US nuclear weapons to the UK is no easy feat,\u201d he emphasized \u2014 as if to remind us that moving megatons of destruction across oceans requires more than just a memo.<\/p>\n

In parallel, former US President Donald Trump once again stole the show with his signature flair for the dramatic. He revealed that American nuclear submarines were stationed near Russian waters \u2014 a follow-up to his earlier warning, issued in response to Dmitry Medvedev\u2019s latest round of apocalyptic blustering.<\/p>\n

The irony here is hard to miss. Washington used Medvedev\u2019s nuclear grandstanding as a justification to expand its nuclear footprint near Russia\u2019s borders. Classic political aikido: Use your opponent\u2019s momentum to throw him off balance. And Moscow, to its evident dismay, realized this a little too late.<\/p>\n

The Kremlin\u2019s initial reaction came in the form of a cautious, almost sheepish, statement from presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who assured the public that the Russian leadership is \u201cvery careful\u201d with nuclear rhetoric. He quickly added that Russia\u2019s official foreign policy line is defined not by Medvedev \u2014 the eternal understudy \u2014 but by President Putin himself.<\/p>\n

After that, Medvedev fell silent. No more doomsday tweets. No more Armageddon-themed press briefings. Just a demonstrative \u2014 and humiliating \u2014 pause. The Americans had successfully baited and silenced one of Moscow\u2019s loudest voices.<\/p>\n

More intriguing is what Putin didn\u2019t<\/em> say. No comment on the reported redeployment of U.S. nuclear bombs to the UK. No comment on American submarines lurking off the Russian coast. Just a statement from the Foreign Ministry declaring the end of Russia\u2019s self-imposed moratorium on medium- and short-range missiles. On the surface, this appeared to be a forceful response. But that\u2019s only at first glance.<\/p>\n

Let us rewind the tape: in June 2024 \u2014 over a year ago \u2014 Putin already announced the lifting of the moratorium on precisely these kinds of weapons. On June 28, during a Security Council meeting, he discussed abandoning restrictions on the deployment of land-based intermediate- and shorter-range missiles. So, the recent announcement isn\u2019t a bold new policy shift. It\u2019s a rehash. A recycled headline.<\/p>\n

Which leads us to the obvious question: What is the purpose of this d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu statement?<\/p>\n

In my view, it\u2019s an attempt to keep a straight face amid a strategic fiasco. The United States has delivered a calculated blow across military, economic, and political fronts. And Russia \u2014 caught off guard \u2014 is scrambling to project strength with gestures that are, at best, performative.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s not forget that in 2019, Putin had solemnly declared:<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cWe will not produce these missiles and will not deploy them until the United States deploys such systems in any region of the world.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

That red line has faded with time \u2014 or perhaps, as is often the case in Kremlin affairs, it was drawn in pencil to begin with.<\/p>\n

That is, legally, since 2019, both parties have not been bound by this agreement.<\/p>\n

So, the Russian Foreign Ministry\u2019s latest high-volume statement is less a geopolitical move and more an exercise in theatrical posturing. It’s an attempt to project information \u201cpower\u201d without backing it with real action \u2014 a kind of diplomatic cosplay.<\/p>\n

This mirrors events from 2023, when Russia loudly<\/em> declared it was \u201csuspending\u201d its participation in the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), but crucially, not withdrawing. Back then, too, the Foreign Ministry issued a statement… in which Moscow pledged to continue observing existing limitations and hinted that participation could resume \u201cat the president\u2019s discretion.\u201d<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s pause here. In international law, there is no such thing as \u201csuspension\u201d in the way Russia uses it. This is pure newspeak \u2014 a diplomatic invention that means absolutely nothing in practice. Smoke, mirrors, and bureaucracy.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s really behind this new round of missile-threatening rhetoric?<\/h3>\n

Quite possibly, the U.S. is dusting off the old Reagan-era playbook. The strategy? Exhaust Russia economically by luring it into another arms race \u2014 the same tactic that helped dismantle the Soviet Union.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s recall: in the 1980s, alongside ballooning American defense budgets, the U.S. quietly pressured Persian Gulf countries to ramp up oil production. Prices dropped. Soviet export revenues collapsed. The empire wobbled, then fell.<\/p>\n

Fast-forward to now. The Gulf states, again under American influence, have increased oil production by 540,000 barrels per day. The price per barrel has already dropped by $2 \u2014 a shift that may seem small, but in Russia’s metro-economy, even minor fluctuations cut deep.<\/p>\n

And Moscow\u2019s response? Predictably imperial: more tanks, more missiles, more parades.<\/p>\n

According to Ukraine\u2019s Main Intelligence Directorate, as cited by General Kyrylo Budanov, Russia plans to spend $1.1 trillion by 2030<\/strong> on military rearmament in preparation for a hypothetical confrontation with NATO.<\/p>\n

\n

\u201cI know this document very well,\u201d Budanov said in an interview with Moseychuk+<\/em>. \u201cThe program totals 90 trillion Russian rubles. Its number one task is to prepare Russia for this confrontation. The spending peak will be before 2030. After that, the curve goes downward.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

In other words: welcome to the new five-year plan \u2014 military edition.<\/p>\n

But here\u2019s the problem for the Kremlin: the Soviet Union at least had an industrial economy to back its ambitions. Russia today has a commodity-dependent economy, plagued by sanctions and capital flight. Already, over 6.6% of its GDP<\/strong> is swallowed by defense spending. The budget deficit<\/strong> stands at 2.2% of GDP<\/strong>, or roughly $50\u201360 billion<\/strong>. And it’s rising.<\/p>\n

In essence, Russia is stumbling into a Cold War 2.0 without the economic oxygen to survive it.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the United States is only warming up. The strategy is classic: provoke your adversary into overspending on defense while you control the pace of escalation. Slow, methodical attrition \u2014 Cold War judo.<\/p>\n

So, what does all this tell us?<\/p>\n

That Russia\u2019s latest statement isn\u2019t a strategic breakthrough \u2014 it\u2019s a strategic miscalculation<\/strong>. It\u2019s a reaction<\/strong>, not an initiative. It reveals not strength, but confusion. And most importantly, it makes clear who currently holds the upper hand in this long game of pressure and patience.<\/p>\n

Spoiler: it\u2019s not the side recycling decade-old press releases and redefining treaties on the fly.<\/p>\n

Also, follow “Pryamyi”<\/strong> on Facebook<\/a>, Twitter<\/a>, Telegram<\/a>, and Instagram.<\/a><\/p>\n

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\n\u2022 The editors of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author\u2019s material.<\/em>
\n\u2022 The owner of the web page in the \u201cTHOUGHTS\u201d section is the author of the publication.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The occupying country has officially announced its withdrawal from the moratorium on the deployment of ground-based intermediate- and shorter-range missiles \u2014 a decision that surprised absolutely no one, except perhaps its diplomats. Recently, the Russian Foreign Ministry declared that it no longer considers itself \u201cbound by a moratorium\u201d on the deployment of such weapons. The […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":1242546,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76874,76875,76991,76871,76872],"class_list":["post-1276728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-war","category-other-news","category-opinions","category-news-2","category-news-feed"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1276728","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/24"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1276728"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1276728\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1276926,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1276728\/revisions\/1276926"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1242546"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1276728"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1276728"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}