{"id":1297133,"date":"2025-09-25T12:41:11","date_gmt":"2025-09-25T09:41:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/ebrd-lowers-ukraines-economic-growth-forecast-for-2025\/"},"modified":"2025-09-25T12:41:11","modified_gmt":"2025-09-25T09:41:11","slug":"ebrd-lowers-ukraines-economic-growth-forecast-for-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/ebrd-lowers-ukraines-economic-growth-forecast-for-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"EBRD lowers Ukraine’s economic growth forecast for 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has adjusted its forecast for the growth rate of Ukraine’s economy in 2025 \u2014 the expected GDP growth has been reduced to 2.5%, while the previous forecast was 3.3%.<\/strong><\/p>\n

This is stated<\/a> in a new economic report by the EBRD.<\/p>\n

The reason for the revision is the high level of uncertainty related to Russia’s ongoing aggression, the situation in the energy sector, and dependence on external support.<\/p>\n

The EBRD notes that despite moderate GDP growth of 0.9% in the first quarter of 2025, economic development is limited by several critical factors:<\/p>\n

labor shortage due to mobilization and emigration;<\/p>\n

damage to energy infrastructure \u2014 consequences of Russian attacks;<\/p>\n

Weak exports of agricultural products \u2014 a decrease in external supplies.<\/p>\n

The forecast for 2026 remains unchanged: +5% to GDP \u2014 provided that a ceasefire is established and post-war reconstruction begins actively. This factor, according to analysts, could become the engine of an economic leap.<\/p>\n

The current account deficit increased by almost 50% in January\u2013July due to high spending on defense and energy.<\/p>\n

The budget deficit in 2025 is projected at 22% of GDP.<\/p>\n

It is expected that more than $40 billion will come from abroad \u2014 in particular, from the EU, the G7 countries (including through proceeds from frozen Russian assets), as well as the IMF.<\/p>\n

Inflation is gradually decreasing: from 15.9% in May to 13.2% in August.<\/p>\n

The discount rate has been at 15.5% since March \u2014 the NBU is trying to contain prices.<\/p>\n

International reserves reached $46 billion in August, which allows covering 5.5 months of imports and maintaining a stable hryvnia exchange rate.<\/p>\n

The Ukrainian economy is showing resilience, but its development still depends on external factors: the course of the war, support from partners, and the pace of recovery. The EBRD emphasizes that the future remains uncertain, but the potential for growth remains.<\/p>\n

As a reminder, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has approved the draft state budget for 2026<\/a> and is submitting it for consideration to the Verkhovna Rada.<\/p>\n

As reported, the total amount of expenditures included in the draft state budget for 2026 will amount to 4.8 trillion hryvnias, which is more than 3 times higher than the expenditures of the Ukrainian budget before the full-scale invasion.<\/a><\/p>\n

By the way, the European Union is preparing to provide Ukraine with a \u201crepatriation loan,\u201d the amount of which could reach 130 billion euros.<\/a><\/p>\n

Also follow \u201cPryamim\u201d<\/strong> on Facebook<\/a> , Twitter<\/a> , Telegram<\/a> , and Instagram.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has adjusted its forecast for the growth rate of Ukraine’s economy in 2025 \u2014 the expected GDP growth has been reduced to 2.5%, while the previous forecast was 3.3%. This is stated in a new economic report by the EBRD. The reason for the revision is the high […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":59,"featured_media":663571,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76871,76872,76892],"class_list":["post-1297133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-2","category-news-feed","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1297133","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/59"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1297133"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1297133\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/663571"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1297133"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1297133"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}