{"id":1297500,"date":"2025-09-25T19:33:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-25T16:33:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/the-russian-economy-is-in-survival-mode-should-we-expect-a-quick-collapse\/"},"modified":"2025-09-25T19:33:08","modified_gmt":"2025-09-25T16:33:08","slug":"the-russian-economy-is-in-survival-mode-should-we-expect-a-quick-collapse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/the-russian-economy-is-in-survival-mode-should-we-expect-a-quick-collapse\/","title":{"rendered":"The Russian economy is in survival mode: should we expect a quick collapse?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>The Russian economy is going into survival mode, fiscal pressure is mounting, and the Kremlin is already running out of money to finance the war against Ukraine. However, Ukrainians should not expect a quick collapse, because Russia still has a margin of safety.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p> This opinion <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=uTuLMcqWAkE\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">was expressed<\/a> on the air of &#8220;Pryamoy&#8221; by investment banker Serhiy Fursa.<\/p>\n<p> &#8220;If we expect Russia to collapse in a month or a year and a half, no, that won&#8217;t happen. But they really have problems with the economy now. And the key problem isn&#8217;t even with the economy, where they&#8217;ve actually gone into a technical recession mode and where this story has stopped working, when all the money that has been accumulated over 30 years goes to war, and this drives economic growth, because a lot of money is simply poured in. It&#8217;s stopped working, plus sanctions are in effect, plus war is very expensive,&#8221; Fursa noted.<\/p>\n<p> https:\/\/youtu.be\/uTuLMcqWAkE?t=250<\/p>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" >\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/the-russian-economy-is-slowing-down-railways-cannot-withstand-the-burden-of-war\/\">The Russian economy is slowing down: railways cannot withstand the burden of war<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<p> According to him, the key problem of the Russian economy is precisely the further financing of the war, since all the accumulated reserves have already been &#8220;eaten up.&#8221; However, one should not count on quick results of the processes that are negative for Russia.<\/p>\n<p> &#8220;And the key problem is not in the dynamics of GDP, but in the budget. Because you have to find money for the war somewhere, and in previous years, including this one, they have actually eaten up the reserves they had. And now the key question, which hardly anyone can answer, is how Russia will finance the war in 2026 or further in 2027, without turning on the printing press at full speed. Because when you turn it on, everything goes awry quite quickly. Again, not in a month or two, but negative processes will manifest themselves very quickly,&#8221; the investment banker explains.<\/p>\n<p> &#8220;And we see that they are trying to circumvent this. For example, now the Russians have decided to increase the value-added tax, trying to reduce the budget deficit. By the way, it is very indicative that the Ukrainian authorities&#8230; we already have a war for survival, an existential war, but we did not take the logical increase in VAT, because it is unpopular. And the Russians, for whom this war is not really existential, took this unpopular, of course, step. And this, I think, is a lesson for us as well, that sometimes the question is: who tries harder, who needs more?&#8221; &#8211; added Fursa.<\/p>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" data-right>\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/like-in-the-middle-ages-russia-switched-to-barter-trade-to-avoid-sanctions\/\">Like in the Middle Ages: Russia switched to barter trade to avoid sanctions<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<p> At the same time, he emphasized that currently no one understands what real consequences this will lead to and how the Russian Federation will act to maintain its economy.<\/p>\n<p> &#8220;But this, of course, will not solve the problem of this entire budget deficit. It will put negative pressure on the economy, of course, in the short term and, in principle, negatively. And the key unanswered question is how they will finance the crazy budget deficit that they have. I don&#8217;t have the answer and no one else has it, perhaps the Russians don&#8217;t either,&#8221; investment banker Serhiy Fursa summed up.<\/p>\n<p> As a reminder, the Russian Ministry of Finance has proposed increasing the value-added tax rate from the current 20% to 22%. The changes are to come into effect on January 1, 2026. The government press release states that additional revenues from the VAT increase <a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/use-na-viynu-rosiia-pidvyshchuie-podatky-shchob-hoduvaty-armiiu\/\">will be used primarily to finance the country&#8217;s &#8220;defense and security.&#8221;<\/a><\/p>\n<p> But even with the increased personal and corporate income taxes, Moscow has already been forced to triple its federal budget deficit forecast to 1.7% of GDP this year. Anonymous government sources suggest the actual deficit could be even higher, putting the 2026 target of 0.9% of GDP at risk.<\/p>\n<p> In addition, by August 2025, the Russian military-industrial complex&#8217;s interest in new workers had significantly decreased \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/u-rosii-cherez-kadrovyy-holod-i-nyzki-zarplaty-buksuie-viyskova-industriia\/\">this decline was the deepest<\/a> since the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p> By the way, <a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/rosiia-vtrachaie-tempy-sbierbank-poperedyv-pro-ryzyk-retsesii\/\">the Russian economy actually stopped growing in the second quarter of 2025.<\/a> The Russian Sberbank described the current situation as &#8220;technical stagnation.&#8221; The reasons for this state of affairs are geopolitical instability, sharp fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate, and falling raw material prices.<\/p>\n<p> Also follow <strong>\u201cPryamim\u201d<\/strong> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Facebook<\/a> , <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/prm_ua\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Twitter<\/a> , <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/+rtV4dxYu2_cyNjVi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Telegram<\/a> , and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Instagram.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Russian economy is going into survival mode, fiscal pressure is mounting, and the Kremlin is already running out of money to finance the war against Ukraine. However, Ukrainians should not expect a quick collapse, because Russia still has a margin of safety. This opinion was expressed on the air of &#8220;Pryamoy&#8221; by investment banker [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":1256732,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76871,76872,76874,76892],"class_list":["post-1297500","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-2","category-news-feed","category-war","category-economy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1297500","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1297500"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1297500\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1256732"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1297500"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1297500"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}