{"id":1300398,"date":"2025-10-02T11:12:24","date_gmt":"2025-10-02T08:12:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/putin-has-no-plans-to-end-the-war-will-the-russian-economy-survive\/"},"modified":"2025-10-02T11:12:24","modified_gmt":"2025-10-02T08:12:24","slug":"putin-has-no-plans-to-end-the-war-will-the-russian-economy-survive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/putin-has-no-plans-to-end-the-war-will-the-russian-economy-survive\/","title":{"rendered":"Putin has no plans to end the war: will the Russian economy survive?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Source: Author&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/MykolaKniazhytsky\/posts\/pfbid02R42yqEzxCSbsweWMuyiB1LKTsw2qSDuDvTXYNhWyT7NhCX1TCqoeq43x8EeH7uPyl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Facebook<\/a> page<\/em><\/p>\n<p> <strong>This week, Russia&#8217;s draft budget for 2026 was released. What conclusions can be drawn about the state of the Russian economy and its ability to continue financing the war?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p> <strong>1. The first important conclusion is that the new Russian budget indicates intentions to continue the war.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p> The logic is simple: there is no need to raise taxes, increase fiscal pressure, and reduce funding for civilian sectors of the economy if the war is planned to end. The Russian Ministry of Finance directly indicates that the expansion of the tax base is related precisely to the need to finance the war.<\/p>\n<p> So, Putin is not going to stop the war in 2026. On the contrary, he is further militarizing the economy, increasing spending on the army. Putin is digging even deeper into the pockets of Russians to finance aggression.<\/p>\n<p> <strong>2. War and sanctions continue to destroy Russia&#8217;s economy.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p> Oil and gas revenues have been falling steadily since the beginning of the year. In the first half of 2025, the average decline was over 20%, and in August the decline exceeded 35%.<\/p>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" >\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/gasoline-crisis-in-russia-how-fuel-shortages-affect-the-war\/\">Gasoline crisis in Russia: how fuel shortages affect the war<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<p> As a result, the Russian budget deficit in 2025 will reach about $60 billion. For comparison: in 2021, Russia had a surplus \u2014 revenues exceeded expenses by almost $7 billion. If earlier the hole was patched up with reserves and additional tax pressure on big business, now even this is no longer enough.<\/p>\n<p> <strong>3. The Russian budget does not take into account the strengthening of sanctions.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p> The baseline scenario for the 2026 budget does not foresee an increase in sanctions pressure. The reasons are both subjective and objective.<\/p>\n<p> The subjective factor is the new US administration. Since the beginning of its term, it has not introduced a single new package of sanctions against Russia. The EU adopts them, but their effectiveness is lower due to weak control and limited application. US sanctions are stronger because they also apply to those who help Russia circumvent them, and compliance is monitored by the Ministry of Finance. The greatest effect is given by a combination of European and American sanctions. In 2025, there was no such synchrony.<\/p>\n<p> Therefore, no new significant sanctions are being introduced, and Russia has already adapted to the old ones &#8211; circumvention schemes have been established and worked out. And this has already been taken into account in the budget.<\/p>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" data-right>\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/the-russian-economy-is-in-survival-mode-should-we-expect-a-quick-collapse\/\">The Russian economy is in survival mode: should we expect a quick collapse?<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<p> But if the G7 tightens its sanctions policy and enforcement, the Russian economy will plummet again. And since the budget is based on the assumption that this will not happen, the blow to the economy could be even more significant.<\/p>\n<p> Last week, Donald Trump repeatedly stated that the Russian economy is collapsing. The published budget draft confirms this. He also confirms that Putin has no plans to end the war. He is ready to finance it at any cost, even at the cost of destroying his own economy.<\/p>\n<p> If Western countries find the courage to strengthen sanctions and control over their implementation, including against countries that help circumvent them, then Putin will have much more reason to think about how to save Russia from internal destruction, rather than about how to fight against Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p> Also follow <strong>\u201cPryamim\u201d<\/strong> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Facebook<\/a> , <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/prm_ua\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Twitter<\/a> , <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/+rtV4dxYu2_cyNjVi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Telegram<\/a> , and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Instagram.<\/a><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 Materials published in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section reflect the opinion of the author of the publication, who bears full responsibility for the accuracy of the information.<\/em><\/span><br \/> <span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The editorial staff of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author&#8217;s material.<\/em><\/span><br \/> <span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The owner of the webpage in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section is the author of the publication.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Source: Author&#8217;s Facebook page This week, Russia&#8217;s draft budget for 2026 was released. What conclusions can be drawn about the state of the Russian economy and its ability to continue financing the war? 1. The first important conclusion is that the new Russian budget indicates intentions to continue the war. The logic is simple: there [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":1265466,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76871,76872,76893],"class_list":["post-1300398","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-2","category-news-feed","category-thoughts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1300398","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1300398"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1300398\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1265466"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1300398"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1300398"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}