{"id":1304921,"date":"2025-10-11T20:34:39","date_gmt":"2025-10-11T17:34:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/how-the-dynamics-of-the-war-will-change-an-american-diplomat-named-the-conditions-under-which-ukraine-will-gain-an-advantage\/"},"modified":"2025-10-11T20:34:39","modified_gmt":"2025-10-11T17:34:39","slug":"how-the-dynamics-of-the-war-will-change-an-american-diplomat-named-the-conditions-under-which-ukraine-will-gain-an-advantage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/how-the-dynamics-of-the-war-will-change-an-american-diplomat-named-the-conditions-under-which-ukraine-will-gain-an-advantage\/","title":{"rendered":"How the dynamics of the war will change: an American diplomat named the conditions under which Ukraine will gain an advantage"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Former US Ambassador to the OSCE Mike Carpenter analyzed possible scenarios for the development of the war in Ukraine and called the most favorable for Kyiv &#8211; complete economic &#8220;strangulation&#8221; of Russia combined with a reparations loan &#8211; &#8220;quite achievable.&#8221; He also outlined the worst-case scenario, associated with winter attacks on infrastructure, which he considers &#8220;unlikely.&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n<p> He spoke about this on the air of &#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/watch\/?v=25322847130652457\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Espresso<\/a> &#8220;.<\/p>\n<p> Carpenter described in detail two contrasting scenarios that could determine the further dynamics of the war in Ukraine: one is favorable and quite real, the other is negative, but unlikely.<\/p>\n<h3> <strong>The most favorable scenario: economic &#8220;strangulation&#8221; of the Russian Federation<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p> Carpenter believes that the best outcome for Ukraine is for Europe and the United States to coordinate their efforts to increase economic pressure on Russia. According to him, such an approach includes specific steps:<\/p>\n<ul><\/p>\n<li> Complete cessation of European purchases of Russian energy resources (oil and gas).<\/li>\n<p><\/p>\n<li> US refusal to import Russian nuclear fuel.<\/li>\n<p><\/p>\n<li> Introduction of secondary sanctions against major buyers of Russian oil.<\/li>\n<p><\/p>\n<li> Complete blockade of the Russian financial sector.<\/li>\n<p><\/p>\n<li> Providing Ukraine with a reparation loan.<\/li>\n<p><\/ul>\n<p> Carpenter emphasized that, given the political will and solidarity in Europe, such measures &#8220;could significantly strengthen Ukraine&#8217;s position in the confrontation with Russia&#8221; and &#8220;change the dynamics of the war.&#8221; The diplomat added that if such a scenario were to happen, &#8220;Putin&#8217;s aura of invincibility&#8221; would begin to crumble, allowing Ukraine to go on the offensive and gradually regain control over the occupied territories.<\/p>\n<h3> <strong>Worst-case scenario: winter as a weapon<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p> Separately, Carpenter described the most negative scenario, which involves massive strikes on Ukraine&#8217;s critical infrastructure in the dead of winter. According to him, such a scenario would become a reality if Ukraine&#8217;s energy protection systems were to prove inadequate: the lack of technological means to protect power plants, the power grid, and the gas transportation system could lead to large-scale outages. This, in turn, &#8220;would force part of the civilian population to leave the country and could provoke a new wave of refugees.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p> At the same time, Carpenter expressed confidence that such a development of events is &#8220;unlikely.&#8221; He noted that Ukraine will probably be able to &#8220;rationally distribute energy capacity between regions and reduce the risk of large-scale outages.&#8221; According to him, with continued support from the West, the country will be able to overcome the coming winter, although it will be &#8220;very difficult.&#8221;<\/p>\n<h3> <strong>Conclusion and recommendations<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p> The diplomat emphasized that the most favorable scenario requires significant political will and solidarity from European partners. He believes that the combination of blocking the Russian financial sector and providing Ukraine with a reparations loan could significantly weaken Moscow and create conditions for a turning point in the war.<\/p>\n<p> Instead, additional assistance in the field of air defense and measures to protect energy infrastructure will help avoid the worst-case scenario.<\/p>\n<p> &#8220;The most favorable scenario for the further development of the war is that Europe, with some participation from the United States, will act together to increase pressure on the Russian economy. Combined with a reparations loan, such steps could significantly strengthen Ukraine&#8217;s position in the confrontation with Russia,&#8221; Mike Carpenter concluded.<\/p>\n<p> We will remind you that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated at a press conference with European Parliament President Roberta Metzola that <a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/plan-a-ta-plan-b-zelenskyy-okreslyv-stsenarii-zavershennia-viyny-ta-finansuvannia-oborony\/\">Ukraine has two strategic plans<\/a> &#8211; ending the war and finding additional financial resources to cover defense costs.<\/p>\n<p> Earlier, <a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/pohanyy-myr-ne-mozhna-nav-iazuvaty-u-kanadi-otsinyly-mozhlyvi-stsenarii-zavershennia-viyny-v-ukraini\/\">former Deputy Chief of the Canadian Defence Staff Mark Norman named three possible options for ending the war in Ukraine<\/a> . In his opinion, the most likely scenario remains a truce or compromise. At the same time, he stressed that no solution should be imposed on Ukraine from the outside.<\/p>\n<p> Also follow <strong>\u201cPryamim\u201d<\/strong> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Facebook<\/a> , <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/prm_ua\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Twitter<\/a> , <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/+rtV4dxYu2_cyNjVi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Telegram<\/a> , and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Instagram.<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Former US Ambassador to the OSCE Mike Carpenter analyzed possible scenarios for the development of the war in Ukraine and called the most favorable for Kyiv &#8211; complete economic &#8220;strangulation&#8221; of Russia combined with a reparations loan &#8211; &#8220;quite achievable.&#8221; He also outlined the worst-case scenario, associated with winter attacks on infrastructure, which he considers [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":54,"featured_media":1293713,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76871,76872,76874],"class_list":["post-1304921","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-2","category-news-feed","category-war"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1304921","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/54"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1304921"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1304921\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1293713"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1304921"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1304921"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}