{"id":1308216,"date":"2025-10-18T12:00:16","date_gmt":"2025-10-18T09:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/physics-for-dreamers-is-it-realistic-to-produce-20-million-drones-per-year\/"},"modified":"2025-10-18T12:00:16","modified_gmt":"2025-10-18T09:00:16","slug":"physics-for-dreamers-is-it-realistic-to-produce-20-million-drones-per-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/physics-for-dreamers-is-it-realistic-to-produce-20-million-drones-per-year\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cPhysics for Dreamers\u201d: Is it realistic to produce 20 million drones per year?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Source: Author&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/volodymyr.tsybulko\/posts\/pfbid0npd7UgTnykw8acA54eMBqW1hPNP3SxntSjXGEHWTSZoMYMrhKzzxayTFgq1VY3nXl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Facebook<\/a> page<\/em><\/p>\n<p> <strong>Oh, another &#8220;physics for dreamers&#8221; now from the Ministry of Defense: 20 million drones per year &#8211; &#8220;if partners give money.&#8221; Will we make it from a billion trees? Okay, let&#8217;s count without forests and fairies:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p> 20 million\/year = ~66,700 pieces per day (we assume 300 working days). For two shifts \u2014 ~33,300 per shift. One FPV assembler in real life makes \u22486 pieces per shift (with assembly, firmware, calibration). So, we need ~5,600 jobs on the line each shift, that is, about 11,000 in the final assembly. Add electronics, engines, batteries, propellers, optics, electronic warfare tests, quality control, logistics, service \u2013 multiply by at least five: we get an order of 50-60 thousand people in the production circuit. This is not &#8220;IT guys in the basement&#8221;, this is a real city.<\/p>\n<p> Area. One workplace with aisles, a test area, and packaging requires ~10 m\u00b2. For 5,600 posts \u2013 ~56 thousand m\u00b2. Plus warehouses, charging stations, and testing \u2013 boldly \u00d73. We get 150-170 thousand m\u00b2 under the roof. This is 15-20 buildings of 8-12 thousand m\u00b2 each. Or &#8220;one gigafab&#8221; according to the political imagination.<\/p>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" >\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/drones-will-finally-shoot-down-enemy-kabs-how-is-this-possible\/\">Tiny Drones, Massive Kill: KABs No Longer Safe in the Sky<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<p> Factories. Final assembly: if one site produces ~1.5-2 million per year, 10-14 such sites are needed. Components: 80 million motors (4 per quad) &#8211; 6-8 separate motor factories; 20 million flight controllers and 20 million ESCs &#8211; a dozen SMT factories with dozens of lines; 20 million batteries &#8211; several battery factories; optics, antennas, props &#8211; several more specialized workshops. The supply chain is not a &#8220;garage godfather&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p> Robots? SMT lines, soldering\/test manipulators, packaging cells: at least 500\u2013800 robotic positions are needed. And yes, in addition to China, they are made by ABB (Switzerland\/Sweden), FANUC and Yaskawa (Japan), Universal Robots (Denmark), Comau (Italy), St\u00e4ubli (Switzerland). Buying is one thing, integrating is another.<\/p>\n<p> Bottom line. &#8220;20 million&#8221; is not a number, it&#8217;s a password to the door of fantasies. Without stable money, an electronic database, people, space, standards, and logistics, it&#8217;s just another episode from the &#8220;Power of Pathological Liars&#8221; series.<\/p>\n<p> Also follow <strong>\u201cPryamim\u201d<\/strong> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Facebook<\/a> , <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/prm_ua\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a> , <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/+rtV4dxYu2_cyNjVi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Telegram<\/a> , and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Instagram<\/a> .<\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 Materials published in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section reflect the opinion of the author of the publication, who bears full responsibility for the accuracy of the information.<\/em><\/span><br \/> <span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The editorial staff of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author&#8217;s material.<\/em><\/span><br \/> <span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The owner of the webpage in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section is the author of the publication.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Source: Author&#8217;s Facebook page Oh, another &#8220;physics for dreamers&#8221; now from the Ministry of Defense: 20 million drones per year &#8211; &#8220;if partners give money.&#8221; Will we make it from a billion trees? Okay, let&#8217;s count without forests and fairies: 20 million\/year = ~66,700 pieces per day (we assume 300 working days). For two shifts [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":1308206,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76871,76872,76893],"class_list":["post-1308216","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-2","category-news-feed","category-thoughts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1308216","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1308216"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1308216\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1308206"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1308216"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1308216"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}