{"id":1311513,"date":"2025-10-25T18:37:32","date_gmt":"2025-10-25T15:37:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/managed-flexibility-or-devaluation-what-will-happen-to-the-hryvnia\/"},"modified":"2025-10-25T18:37:32","modified_gmt":"2025-10-25T15:37:32","slug":"managed-flexibility-or-devaluation-what-will-happen-to-the-hryvnia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/managed-flexibility-or-devaluation-what-will-happen-to-the-hryvnia\/","title":{"rendered":"Managed flexibility or devaluation: what will happen to the hryvnia?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Source: Author&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sergey.fursa\/posts\/pfbid02KNzqvtp83cGS3XSdJdkB3GyqbFRGfr1rzyvcSM97A7w5c5Z6kyEzsFTNYzBfNCjUl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Facebook<\/a> page<\/em><\/p>\n<p> <strong>Ukrainians were scared by the IMF. More precisely, an article that says that the Fund requires the National Bank to devalue the hryvnia. As a result, this became one of the main reasons why the hryvnia exchange rate reached 42 hryvnias per dollar. Where it has not been for a very, very long time.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p> And in principle, it&#8217;s not such a big movement. Just a few percent. But nevertheless, for the first time in a long period, we have ordinary Ukrainians experiencing the national currency. Ukrainians who are already accustomed to managed exchange rate flexibility. Which in 2025 actually meant manageability. Without flexibility.<\/p>\n<p> The only catch is that this movement was on a completely empty site. What are we talking about?<\/p>\n<p> The IMF really advocates the devaluation of the hryvnia. But this is not news. For more than a year, the IMF has been emphasizing in its communications with Ukrainians that it is concerned about a very fixed exchange rate. And that this usually ends badly. And that it would be easier to finance the budget deficit if the hryvnia were devalued. Then international aid would simply be converted into a larger amount of hryvnia. That is why the IMF has always supported the Ministry of Finance in its desire to slightly weaken the hryvnia (by 10 percent annually).<\/p>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" >\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/the-imf-is-pressuring-the-national-bank-of-ukraine-to-devalue-the-hryvnia\/\">The IMF is pressuring the National Bank of Ukraine to devalue the hryvnia.<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<p> So, the IMF has long wanted devaluation. But has it changed anything? No. The National Bank is not going to the IMF meeting here. The National Bank&#8217;s position is based on the fact that it is responsible for inflation. And additional devaluation will mean additional pressure on prices. Especially since the hryvnia is already gradually devaluing against the euro, because being tied to the dollar, it falls with it against the European currency. And since our main trading partner is Europe, the very ratio of the hryvnia to the euro is important for business.<\/p>\n<p> Another argument of those who say that the hryvnia is too strong is the crazy trade deficit this year. We import much more than we export. And usually at such moments, countries devalue their currencies. To equalize the situation. However, there are counter-measures here too. After all, devaluation will not be able to help reduce the trade deficit. Which we have, indeed, at record levels. And it is record high due to high imports.<\/p>\n<p> Exports remain constant and fluctuate with the harvest, which fluctuates with the temperature in the fields. But can our imports be adjusted? What is pulling them up? It turns out that a very small share of it would react to a change in the exchange rate. We have a very large share of military imports. And those imports that provide either the restoration or the construction of new energy capacities.<\/p>\n<p> What would really help to hold back imports is taxes. It is very strange that we still have preferential conditions for the import of electric cars. During the war. Similarly, during the war we allow ourselves not to tax parcels from the Chinese, thus supporting the Chinese manufacturer, which in turn supports the Russian military machine. During a war for survival, not only benefits are inappropriate. In principle, it would be logical to introduce increased taxation on unproductive imports, which then results in an active consumption premium. But this is unpopular\u2026<\/p>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" data-right>\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/nbu-prepares-new-program-with-imf-tax-reforms-customs-and-legalization-of-crypto-assets\/\">NBU prepares new program with IMF: tax reforms, customs and legalization of crypto assets<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<p> By the way, the devaluation of the hryvnia is just as unpopular\u2026<\/p>\n<p> One way or another, despite the IMF&#8217;s wishes, the decision on the exchange rate is made by the National Bank. At least, while it has enough reserves. And all forecasts say that the reserves in the NBU will only increase in the near future. Unless, of course, the idea of a reparations loan fails. Because then the uncertainty will increase significantly. But for now, the base scenario suggests that Merz and company will find arguments for the Belgians (especially since there is no other way out) and Ukraine will receive guaranteed financing for the next 2-3 years.<\/p>\n<p> So, the decision will be made by the National Bank. There will be no pressure on the IMF during the war. Moreover, the independence of the regulator is a very important story for the IMF itself. And the National Bank clearly said in its latest communication that it will continue the previous exchange rate policy&#8230;<\/p>\n<p> That&#8217;s actually all&#8230;<\/p>\n<p> Also follow <strong>\u201cPryamim\u201d<\/strong> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Facebook<\/a> , <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/prm_ua\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a> , <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/+rtV4dxYu2_cyNjVi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Telegram<\/a> , and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Instagram<\/a> .<\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 Materials published in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section reflect the opinion of the author of the publication, who bears full responsibility for the accuracy of the information.<\/em><\/span><br \/> <span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The editorial staff of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author&#8217;s material.<\/em><\/span><br \/> <span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The owner of the webpage in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section is the author of the publication.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Source: Author&#8217;s Facebook page Ukrainians were scared by the IMF. More precisely, an article that says that the Fund requires the National Bank to devalue the hryvnia. As a result, this became one of the main reasons why the hryvnia exchange rate reached 42 hryvnias per dollar. Where it has not been for a very, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":1169383,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76871,76872,76893],"class_list":["post-1311513","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-2","category-news-feed","category-thoughts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1311513","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1311513"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1311513\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1169383"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1311513"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1311513"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}