{"id":1321952,"date":"2025-11-18T11:19:34","date_gmt":"2025-11-18T09:19:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/corruption-money-and-the-front-three-black-swans-circling-over-ukraine\/"},"modified":"2025-11-19T06:38:18","modified_gmt":"2025-11-19T04:38:18","slug":"corruption-money-and-the-front-three-black-swans-circling-over-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/corruption-money-and-the-front-three-black-swans-circling-over-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"Corruption, Cash, and the Frontlines: Ukraine\u2019s Three Deadly Black Swans"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Source: Author&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/denys.popovych.3\/posts\/pfbid0UTx7vbzk6DnKtpBxYgDq7SGxLEBYDEeegYDfKMKvKAFDLfwi2hWVCVWE6dWAWd6zl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Facebook<\/a> page<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Today, it was reported that the European Commission is preparing Ukraine\u2019s financing plan based on the assumption that the active phase of the war will end in 2026. I share this assessment and also believe that the active phase of the conflict will likely conclude in the second half of 2026<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"52\" data-end=\"273\">It\u2019s clear \u2014 the Russian economy is faltering. By December, the country is expected to face a budget deficit of 7\u20138 trillion rubles. This gap cannot be closed, even if the war were to stop today and all sanctions were lifted tomorrow.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"275\" data-end=\"428\">This isn\u2019t just my assessment. Official Russian data and independent economists alike confirm the economic stagnation and the looming budget shortfall.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"430\" data-end=\"537\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">A country cannot sustain a war while its economy is collapsing. Not even Putin can defy this basic reality.<\/p>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" >\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/new-sanctions-and-the-fuel-crisis-should-we-expect-the-collapse-of-the-russian-economy\/\">New sanctions and the fuel crisis: should we expect the collapse of the Russian economy?<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<p data-start=\"64\" data-end=\"416\">In this sense, the Russian Federation is following a path similar to that of Kaiser Germany, which lost the First World War without a single enemy soldier on its territory but was exhausted economically, and also the USSR, which collapsed due to falling global oil prices, the arms race, and the war in Afghanistan, all of which crippled its economy.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"418\" data-end=\"482\">Today, Russia is weaker than both the USSR and Kaiser Germany.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"484\" data-end=\"569\">However, we face our own challenges. Three \u201cblack swans\u201d are circling over Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"571\" data-end=\"845\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">The first is corruption scandals. They demoralize society and the army, erode trust in the authorities, and give our enemies powerful tools to destabilize the country from within. And we have brought this \u201cblack swan\u201d upon ourselves \u2014 our own elite has plundered the nation.<\/p>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" data-right>\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/the-aftermath-of-minditchgate-will-western-allies-freeze-aid\/\">The aftermath of \u201cMinditchgate\u201d: will Western allies freeze aid?<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<p data-start=\"82\" data-end=\"387\">The second black swan is closely linked to the first. Our economy is struggling and remains entirely dependent on foreign aid. What compromising information might emerge tomorrow? And what if it is so damaging that calls to disconnect us from the \u201cventilator\u201d grow even louder \u2014 and are actually heeded?<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"389\" data-end=\"704\">The third black swan is the front and the shelling of the rear. Russia is now exhausting every last resource it has, attempting to achieve military success, much like Germany did in the first half of 1918. Demoralization, weakened morale caused by corruption, and internal strife all work to the enemy\u2019s advantage.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"706\" data-end=\"814\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">I am not making specific frontline predictions, but the war is likely to reach a critical point this winter.<\/p>\n<p>Also, follow <strong>\u201cPryamyi\u201d<\/strong> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Facebook<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/prm_ua\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/+rtV4dxYu2_cyNjVi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Telegram<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Instagram<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 Materials published in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section reflect the opinion of the author of the publication, who bears full responsibility for the accuracy of the information.<\/em><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The editorial staff of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author&#8217;s material.<\/em><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The owner of the webpage in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section is the author of the publication.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Source: Author&#8217;s Facebook page Today, it was reported that the European Commission is preparing Ukraine\u2019s financing plan based on the assumption that the active phase of the war will end in 2026. I share this assessment and also believe that the active phase of the conflict will likely conclude in the second half of 2026. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":1321931,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76872,76893,76871],"class_list":["post-1321952","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-feed","category-thoughts","category-news-2"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1321952","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1321952"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1321952\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1322324,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1321952\/revisions\/1322324"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1321931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1321952"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1321952"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}