{"id":1333852,"date":"2025-12-17T10:51:47","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T08:51:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/the-spinning-wheel-of-the-peace-process-what-the-negotiations-really-mean-for-ukraine\/"},"modified":"2025-12-18T07:51:53","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T05:51:53","slug":"the-spinning-wheel-of-the-peace-process-what-the-negotiations-really-mean-for-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/the-spinning-wheel-of-the-peace-process-what-the-negotiations-really-mean-for-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"The Peace Process in Circles: What Negotiations Really Spell for Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Source: Author&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/portnikov\/posts\/pfbid023ZSiddXR24neJ26HsC4W8SXbw9UyNf2fDkD1HFijFDqm6MjZ5Qc6AhomakXJ59TKl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Facebook<\/a> page<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>For several weeks, the proposed peace plan by US President Donald Trump has dominated political discussions in Ukraine and beyond. Debate is unfolding not only in the United States and Ukraine, but also in European capitals \u2014 and even in Moscow, which was recently visited by US representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushne<\/strong>r.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"121\" data-end=\"477\">This week also begins with negotiations. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, together with European leaders, is meeting with American negotiators. The plan, which has already been agreed upon by the Ukrainian and American delegations in Geneva and Florida, will be discussed. At the same time, Kyiv has prepared its own version, which may be proposed for consideration.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"479\" data-end=\"740\">The main difference in the Ukrainian approach is the insistence on maintaining control over all territories currently held by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This includes, in particular, parts of the Donetsk region, which Vladimir Putin seeks to cease entirely.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"742\" data-end=\"956\">Kyiv also emphasizes its right to join NATO and is seeking a security guarantee formula that would provide not only symbolic support, but real involvement by allies in the event of renewed aggression from Russia.<br \/>\nThe question is not so much why the Americans might support the Ukrainian vision, but rather why the Russians would agree to any of the proposed plans at all. After all, the Kremlin has already declared that a significant portion of even Trump\u2019s plan is unacceptable to them.<\/p>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" >\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/thousands-of-missiles-instead-of-assurances-what-should-real-security-guarantees-be\/\">Thousands of missiles instead of \u201cassurances\u201d: what should real security guarantees be?<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<p data-start=\"114\" data-end=\"236\">So far, it appears that Putin\u2019s goal is to buy time by continuing the war while avoiding serious pressure from the West.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"238\" data-end=\"527\">At the same time, it cannot be said that he is fully succeeding. Despite his peaceful rhetoric, Donald Trump has imposed new sanctions on Russian oil companies. In addition, there have been signals of US support for Ukrainian strikes on tankers belonging to the so-called \u201cshadow fleet.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"529\" data-end=\"744\">European nations recently agreed to an indefinite freeze on Russian assets, paving the way for a reparations loan for Ukraine. It no longer depends on unanimity, removing the veto that Hungary could have exercised before.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"746\" data-end=\"1022\">The situation on the front is also far from ideal for Putin. Ukrainian forces have surrounded the occupiers in Kupyansk, despite the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, reporting to Putin a few weeks ago that the city had been \u201ccaptured\u201d by Russian forces.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"134\" data-end=\"260\">However, let us imagine that the US convinces Ukraine to cede some of its territories. How could this be legally formalized?<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"262\" data-end=\"639\">The Constitution of Ukraine does not permit changes to the country\u2019s territorial structure. Even holding a referendum would not guarantee that such a decision would receive majority support from citizens. Moreover, international law does not recognize changes in borders resulting from aggression or annexation \u2014 precisely the circumstances Ukraine has faced in recent years.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"641\" data-end=\"999\">A separate issue concerns security guarantees. Is the US truly prepared to engage in conflict with Russia in the event of renewed aggression? Currently, there is no guarantee that NATO would act under Article 5 if a European country were attacked. And what about Ukraine? Would any such support be legally secured in a ratified agreement?<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"742\" data-end=\"956\">\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" data-right>\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/renunciation-of-nato-in-exchange-for-peace-why-ukraine-will-not-take-such-a-step\/\">Renunciation of NATO in exchange for peace: why Ukraine will not take such a step<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"110\" data-end=\"167\">In fact, the only reliable guarantee is Ukraine itself.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"169\" data-end=\"499\">A strong, well-armed state with a developed military-industrial complex and its own missiles \u2014 a Ukraine whose defence would inflict such painful losses on Russia that further aggression would be deterred. But such a state can only emerge with the support of its allies \u2014 and only if it is not forced to disarm, as Moscow seeks.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"501\" data-end=\"624\">Yet if we abandon the idea of \u201cdemilitarizing\u201d Ukraine, how realistic is it that Putin would agree to a peace settlement?<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"626\" data-end=\"847\">Perhaps the only viable scenario is the exhaustion of the Russian state \u2014 a situation in which the Putin regime can no longer issue ultimatums to Ukraine or the West. Only then will genuine negotiations become possible.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"849\" data-end=\"945\">Until that moment, the peace process remains like a spinning top: spinning, but going nowhere.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"742\" data-end=\"956\">\n<p>Also, follow <strong>\u201cPryamyi\u201d<\/strong> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Facebook<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/prm_ua\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/+rtV4dxYu2_cyNjVi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Telegram<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Instagram<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 Materials published in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section reflect the opinion of the author of the publication, who bears full responsibility for the accuracy of the information.<\/em><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The editorial staff of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author&#8217;s material.<\/em><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The owner of the webpage in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section is the author of the publication.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Source: Author&#8217;s Facebook page For several weeks, the proposed peace plan by US President Donald Trump has dominated political discussions in Ukraine and beyond. Debate is unfolding not only in the United States and Ukraine, but also in European capitals \u2014 and even in Moscow, which was recently visited by US representatives Steve Witkoff and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":1333365,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76871,76872,76893],"class_list":["post-1333852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-2","category-news-feed","category-thoughts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1333852","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1333852"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1333852\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1334127,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1333852\/revisions\/1334127"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1333365"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1333852"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1333852"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}