{"id":1339741,"date":"2026-01-02T17:52:54","date_gmt":"2026-01-02T15:52:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/guarantees-instead-of-illusions-what-awaits-ukraine-in-2026-and-what-will-be-the-new-security-architecture\/"},"modified":"2026-01-02T17:52:54","modified_gmt":"2026-01-02T15:52:54","slug":"guarantees-instead-of-illusions-what-awaits-ukraine-in-2026-and-what-will-be-the-new-security-architecture","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/guarantees-instead-of-illusions-what-awaits-ukraine-in-2026-and-what-will-be-the-new-security-architecture\/","title":{"rendered":"Guarantees instead of illusions: what awaits Ukraine in 2026 and what will be the new security architecture"},"content":{"rendered":"

The year 2025 formed two key vectors that will directly determine the further development of events in 2026 – foreign policy and domestic.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The first and most important is the negotiation process. It is the results of peace agreements that become the main factor that influences not only diplomacy, but also the nature of hostilities.<\/p>\n

The United States is making it clear to both Ukraine and Russia that it favors a cessation of the active phase of hostilities. This is the main vector that will influence both the situation on the front and domestic politics in 2026.<\/p>\n

The second key external shift is the signing of the agreement on the joint use of subsoil resources, which, in my opinion, is a strategic breakthrough. This is not just an economic agreement. These are political and economic guarantees for the existence of the Ukrainian state. It will shape Ukraine’s economy and its foreign policy vector for decades to come.<\/p>\n

It is not only about restoring the economy, but also about the development of the domestic military-industrial complex, mining and processing industries, which directly affects the country’s defense capability.<\/p>\n

The end of the year was marked by two events that will have a long aftertaste. The first is the anti-corruption investigation of NABU (“Midas”). The second is the resignation of Andriy Yermak. Although he formally left his post, his “shadow” will continue to influence political processes for some time. The Ukrainian system is entering a phase of readjustment after Yermak, and this process will not be instantaneous.
The anti-corruption scandal surrounding the Midas case had a much broader effect than personal resignations – a key event in 2025. It is not only about the resignation of Andriy Yermak and a number of ministers, but also about the factor of diplomatic pressure.<\/p>\n

The United States has used this situation as a tool to pressure Ukraine. Corruption risks are directly taken into account when making decisions on macroeconomic and military-technical assistance.<\/p>\n

At the same time, one of the key domestic achievements of the year is that the authorities failed to subordinate anti-corruption institutions.
The main success, in my opinion, is that it was not possible to make NABU and SAPO into manual structures. This creates a safeguard against authoritarian drift and minimizes corruption risks in the future.<\/p>\n

It is this factor that directly affects both the formation of the new management team and the political sympathies of voters. It is worth paying special attention to the artificial incitement of confrontation between the US, the EU and Ukraine, which is actively promoted by Russian special services.<\/p>\n

At the same time, Europe realizes that the Ukrainian factor is a security guarantee for the EU itself, and is not interested in a quick end to the war on Russia’s terms.<\/p>\n

We need to call things by their right names \u2013 Europe is not ready to fight for us. Kallas’ proposals consist of training Ukrainian military personnel, financial support for Ukraine and, accordingly, the Ukrainian military-industrial complex. These are not guarantees of security.
Europe’s proposals do not meet Ukraine’s interests. Instead, the US offers effective security guarantees for Ukraine.
Instead, the American security guarantees are a virtual copy of NATO’s Article 5. It primarily talks about the military part of the guarantees of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. It is worth noting that Trump emphasizes that these should be guarantees not only from the US, but also from Europe. However, what we see from Europe does not correspond to Ukrainian interests. This is worth talking about.<\/p>\n

Instead, we focus exclusively on criticizing US policy. The situation with the US is quite clear. They are not interested in the continued existence of Russia in the form it is. Actually, that is why they give guarantees for 10 years. Thus, they make it clear that Ukraine has historical prospects for returning territories. During this time, a lot can change in Russia due to physiological processes. In particular, the death of the Russian dictator.<\/p>\n

In a global dimension, I would like to note the systematic US policy of isolating Russia, in particular by weakening its positions in the post-Soviet space and in the countries of the “axis of evil”.<\/p>\n

The United States is gradually squeezing the Russian Federation, depriving it of strategic allies and the ability to influence the world stage. This will also define the year 2026.<\/p>\n

Also follow \u201cPryamim\u201d<\/strong> on Facebook<\/a> , Twitter<\/a> , Telegram<\/a> , and Instagram<\/a> .<\/p>\n

\u2022 Materials published in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section reflect the opinion of the author of the publication, who bears full responsibility for the accuracy of the information.<\/em>
\u2022 The editorial staff of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author’s material.<\/em>
\u2022 The owner of the webpage in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section is the author of the publication.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The year 2025 formed two key vectors that will directly determine the further development of events in 2026 – foreign policy and domestic. The first and most important is the negotiation process. It is the results of peace agreements that become the main factor that influences not only diplomacy, but also the nature of hostilities. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":1004794,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76871,76872,76893],"class_list":["post-1339741","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-2","category-news-feed","category-thoughts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1339741","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/31"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1339741"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1339741\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1004794"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1339741"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1339741"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}