{"id":1340848,"date":"2026-01-06T08:58:30","date_gmt":"2026-01-06T06:58:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/strategic-forks-2026-ukraine-in-trumps-hands\/"},"modified":"2026-01-07T06:29:26","modified_gmt":"2026-01-07T04:29:26","slug":"strategic-forks-2026-ukraine-in-trumps-hands","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/strategic-forks-2026-ukraine-in-trumps-hands\/","title":{"rendered":"Strategic Forks 2026: Is Ukraine Now Trump\u2019s Leverage?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><em>Source: Author&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/permalink.php?story_fbid=pfbid0kxDs3T2vU3sEgEic9B7AcppTRi7RCCfcmr8bM8Pcg6Npd59uzX2J223cLGPG4zUyl&amp;id=61560822014814\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Facebook<\/a> page<\/em><\/strong><br \/>\n<strong>2026 will not bring peace in the classical sense \u2014 peace born of the aggressor\u2019s defeat, accountability for the crime, and the restoration of justice. Instead, it is likely to bring something else: an attempt to turn the war into a deal, and the country into a line item in someone else\u2019s ledger.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"150\" data-end=\"387\">Not because a brilliant diplomatic plan will suddenly emerge, but because the new American logic treats war not as a moral boundary of civilisation, but as a problem that must be closed \u2014 quickly, efficiently, with a caption and a title.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"389\" data-end=\"746\">It is important not to substitute emotion for analysis. Trump\u2019s recent statements are not merely \u201coutrageous\u201d. They function as an X-ray of his thinking. When he says, \u201cWe really need Greenland\u2026 for defence,\u201d he is not debating Denmark, persuading allies, or seeking compromise. He is articulating a principle: the right to <em data-start=\"713\" data-end=\"722\">possess<\/em>, justified by security.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"748\" data-end=\"1176\">When he tells the world that \u201cVenezuela has gone to hell\u2026 a failed country\u2026 a catastrophe,\u201d he is not assessing the situation \u2014 he is labelling the state as an object that can be \u201creassembled\u201d. And when he threatens Delcy Rodr\u00edguez with a \u201cvery high price\u201d, perhaps even \u201chigher than Maduro\u2019s\u201d, he is demonstrating a negotiating style that resembles a protection racket in international relations: comply, or the cost will rise.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1178\" data-end=\"1501\">These three statements, like three nails, pin a single idea to the wall: in 2026, Trump is likely to treat Ukraine not as an ally in a war against an empire, but as a case to be \u201cresolved\u201d, and as a partner to whom the price of disobedience is made explicit. This is not about sympathies or antipathies. It is about the method.<\/p>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" >\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/special-operation-in-venezuela-why-putin-should-tighten-up\/\">Special operation in Venezuela: why Putin should tighten up<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<p data-start=\"167\" data-end=\"559\">Applying this methodology to the so-called \u201c20 points\u201d marketed as a peace plan reveals the core problem. It is not the presence of \u201csweeteners\u201d \u2014 money, guarantees, elegant language \u2014 that is at issue, but the structure itself: a framework that trades the defeat of the aggressor for a pause, and justice for procedure.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"561\" data-end=\"956\">Within this framework, Russia ceases to be a criminal that must be forced to retreat and held accountable. Instead, it becomes a \u201cparty\u201d that needs to be \u201cengaged in peace.\u201d Ukraine, meanwhile, is automatically recast as \u201cthe side that does not want peace\u201d if it refuses what is offered. This is the Kremlin\u2019s oldest trap \u2014 only now it is stitched with American thread and marketed as \u201crealism.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"958\" data-end=\"1615\">What will define 2026 is not the language of press releases, but the logic of pressure Trump applies wherever he sees the possibility of a quick result. He favours deadlines, because deadlines transform complex moral questions into \u201csimple decisions that must be made today.\u201d He favours conditional support, because resources are leverage, and leverage is power. Furthermore, he favours personalisation because humiliating a partner establishes dominance without the need for argument. And he favours creating \u201cfacts\u201d and then forcing everyone else to adjust to them. This is how business works. This is how power politics works. There is the logic of this new \u201cdiplomacy\u201d.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1617\" data-end=\"1670\">For Ukraine, this outlines a precise scenario<i>.<\/i><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1672\" data-end=\"1893\">First, 2026 will be a year of deadlines and \u201clast chances.\u201d Ukraine will be pushed toward formulas such as \u201cjust a little more, and there will be peace,\u201d while refusal will automatically be framed as a \u201ccollapse of peace.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1895\" data-end=\"2132\">Second, U.S. assistance \u2014 especially in critical areas such as air defence, ammunition, and finance \u2014 risks being converted into a system of \u201cprogress payments\u201d: not an ally\u2019s commitment, but a conditional \u201cdeliver\/freeze\u201d mechanism.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2134\" data-end=\"2333\">Third, Washington will actively shift costs onto Europe \u2014 \u201cit\u2019s your continent, you pay\u201d \u2014 reinforcing the temptation in European capitals to \u201cclose the war\u201d through compromise to stop paying.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2335\" data-end=\"2550\">Fourth, sanctions risk becoming a tradable commodity \u2014 an \u201cincentive for peace\u201d that can be relaxed in exchange for the Kremlin\u2019s \u201cconstructiveness,\u201d which in practice would mean restoring the aggressor\u2019s resources.<\/p>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" data-right>\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/zelenskys-20-points-quick-peace-or-continued-negotiations\/\">Zelenskyy\u2019s 20 Demands: Shortcut to Peace or Endless Negotiations?<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<p data-start=\"198\" data-end=\"454\">sh for internal legitimization of the agreement, through parliament or a referendum. While this may sound democratic, in the conditions of war and information warfare it can easily become a field of division and manipulation.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"456\" data-end=\"537\">This is where Ukraine\u2019s strategic forks begin \u2014 not theoretical, but existential.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"539\" data-end=\"1222\">The first fork is between a short pause and prolonged danger. A \u201ccompromise\u201d that does not force Russia to suffer losses may provide temporary peace, but almost guarantees a repeat scenario, because the Kremlin does not change its objectives \u2014 only its pace. A pause for Russia is always an opportunity to accumulate resources, renew pressure tools, and return when the West grows fatigued again. Rejecting the proposed \u201cframework\u201d is also uncomfortable: it carries the risk of resource pressure and attempts to shift blame onto Kyiv, yet it preserves the chance not to enshrine the aggressor\u2019s advantage in legal form and to maintain leverage for better conditions in the future.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1224\" data-end=\"1818\">The second fork is Europe: as support or as an accomplice in \u201cclosing the case.\u201d Illusions here are dangerous. Europe is heterogeneous: some will strive for rapid normalization, while others \u2014 primarily the eastern flank and the United Kingdom \u2014 cannot afford self-deception because they live physically close to Russia. Ukraine\u2019s stake in 2026 will therefore depend not on general statements, but on technical and political integration &#8211;\u00a0 joint defence production, long-term ammunition contracts, deterrence coalitions, and tangible commitments that do not hinge on the mood of the White House.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1820\" data-end=\"2455\">The third fork is Plan B \u2014 as an industrial and military reality, not a slogan. If American support becomes conditional, Ukraine must pivot toward maximum self-sufficiency: defence industry, missiles, drones, electronic warfare, repair bases, and logistics. This is not the romance of \u201cstanding alone against the world\u201d; it is a pragmatic response to a world that is being negotiated over. In parallel, security must be reinforced through bilateral and regional defence agreements with those who genuinely understand the Russian threat. If NATO is politically blocked, temporary containment structures become not a whim, but insurance.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"152\" data-end=\"647\">The fourth fork is internal stability. Any \u201cpeace framework\u201d in 2026 will act as a detonator for internal conflict: to sign or not to sign, \u201ctired\u201d or \u201cbetrayal,\u201d \u201csilence\u201d or a \u201crepeat scenario.\u201d Russia will invest resources in the sowing division, because creating discord is more cost-effective than conventional military action. If the state does not establish honest communication and mechanisms for consolidation \u2014 with veterans, volunteers, the army, and local communities \u2014 any external strategy will crumble under internal hostility.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"649\" data-end=\"1056\">The fifth fork is the temptation to \u201cwait out\u201d Trump until the next U.S. election cycle. This is only feasible if there is a solid resource base &#8211;\u00a0 a minimally equipped front, tangible European support, a functioning defence industry, disciplined sanctions, and well-managed domestic politics. Without these, \u201cwaiting out\u201d becomes a slow process of exhaustion, likely ending with a signature on worse terms.<\/p>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" >\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/for-ukraine-the-year-began-with-trump-and-ends-with-trump\/\">Trump Framed Ukraine\u2019s Year: From the First Day to the Last<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<p data-start=\"176\" data-end=\"722\">The entire logic this year boils down to a single rigid formula: the world seeks comfort, Moscow seeks a pause, Trump seeks a trophy, and Ukraine seeks survival. In this configuration, a \u201cpeace plan\u201d that contains no real coercion of Russia will be presented as pragmatism, but in practice, it will serve as preparation for the next cycle of war. And if anyone tries to tell us that this is a \u201chistorical chance,\u201d the answer should be clear: a historical chance arises when evil is stopped and punished, not when it is given a pause and legalized.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"735\" data-end=\"1541\">The conclusion here is not moral \u2014 it is practical. Ukraine must respond to Trump\u2019s mindset and methods, rather than merely reacting to his rhetoric.\u00a0The goal is not to argue over the \u201cdeal in words,\u201d but to raise the cost of formalization to a level that makes it unprofitable and dangerous for everyone. This requires a far-sighted strategy and the capability to strike at the infrastructure of war, rather than merely reacting to its consequences. Sanctions must be enforced in a way that genuinely constrains Russia, not just generates headlines. A European containment framework must function independently of the American political mood. A national defense industry must become a sovereign strategic asset. And internal consolidation must serve as the primary countermeasure to Russia\u2019s \u201ccheap weapon\u201d \u2014 division.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1479\" data-end=\"1763\">Because if Ukraine allows itself to be \u201cformalized\u201d in 2026, formalization will not occur with a single signature. It will happen every day: through deadlines, conditional aid, sanctions bargaining, referendum traps, internal splits, and the illusion that \u201cnow everything is settled.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>And if we don\u2019t survive this wave, the next series will be worse \u2013 not because we \u201cdidn\u2019t want peace,\u201d but because we signed a pause for the enemy and called it peace.<\/p>\n<p>Also, follow <strong>\u201cPryamyi\u201d<\/strong> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Facebook<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/prm_ua\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/+rtV4dxYu2_cyNjVi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Telegram<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Instagram<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 Materials published in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section reflect the opinion of the author of the publication, who bears full responsibility for the accuracy of the information.<\/em><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The editorial staff of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author&#8217;s material.<\/em><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The owner of the webpage in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section is the author of the publication.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Source: Author&#8217;s Facebook page 2026 will not bring peace in the classical sense \u2014 peace born of the aggressor\u2019s defeat, accountability for the crime, and the restoration of justice. Instead, it is likely to bring something else: an attempt to turn the war into a deal, and the country into a line item in someone [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":1340844,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76871,76872,76893],"class_list":["post-1340848","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-2","category-news-feed","category-thoughts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1340848","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1340848"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1340848\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1341267,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1340848\/revisions\/1341267"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1340844"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1340848"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1340848"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}