{"id":1342092,"date":"2026-01-08T19:48:37","date_gmt":"2026-01-08T17:48:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/captured-russian-ships-and-grahams-law-why-there-will-be-no-quick-peace\/"},"modified":"2026-01-09T06:13:52","modified_gmt":"2026-01-09T04:13:52","slug":"captured-russian-ships-and-grahams-law-why-there-will-be-no-quick-peace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/captured-russian-ships-and-grahams-law-why-there-will-be-no-quick-peace\/","title":{"rendered":"Seized Russian Vessels and Graham\u2019s Law: The Myth of a Fast Peace"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Source: Author&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/vadym.denysenko.1\/posts\/pfbid0PwL4RwiWcbJZvtEBjfH8Lh8Sfwd9cP2zSfboyfvnKtUAKwmnYLKKJn7XXgXyB6CZl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Facebook<\/a> page<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Unfortunately, the U.S. game is not aimed at ending the war quickly \u2014 it is focused on the American elections in November. Trump lacks the leverage to force Putin into peace anytime soon, even if shifts in his strategy can still benefit Ukraine.<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li data-start=\"167\" data-end=\"366\">\n<p data-start=\"170\" data-end=\"366\">Trump very publicly ordered the seizure of two ships directly linked to Russia. In other words, he raised the stakes, fully aware that Putin would not respond. And indeed, Putin remained silent.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"368\" data-end=\"878\">\n<p data-start=\"371\" data-end=\"878\"><em data-start=\"158\" data-end=\"245\">Apparently, someone in the White House managed to clarify a few key points for Trump.<\/em> First, that Putin has been manipulating him. Second, continuing his previous approach would only hurt his ratings. And finally, Trump concluded that he needed to start applying real pressure on Putin. This creates a peculiar situation: if Putin is intimidated, Trump is hailed as the architect of peace in Europe; if Putin refuses to yield, Trump can claim he is doing everything possible against the Russian autocrat.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"880\" data-end=\"977\">\n<p data-start=\"883\" data-end=\"977\">Much of what is happening with Trump now is, in fact, the result of Venezuela\u2019s bold stance.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"880\" data-end=\"977\">\n<p data-start=\"883\" data-end=\"977\">Trump has now switched from carrot to stick in dealing with Russia<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"979\" data-end=\"1264\">\n<p data-start=\"982\" data-end=\"1264\">But this also means that a quick peace is unlikely. Putin will now retreat and wait \u2014 as he always does in such situations \u2014 even if some elites would like to accelerate the peace process.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" >\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/putin-is-confused-and-cuba-is-tense-the-results-of-the-special-operation-in-venezuela\/\">Putin is confused, and Cuba is tense: the results of the special operation in Venezuela<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<ol start=\"5\" data-start=\"134\" data-end=\"559\">\n<li data-start=\"134\" data-end=\"559\">\n<p data-start=\"137\" data-end=\"559\">Does Trump have any leverage to force Putin\u2019s hand in the short term? Practically none. The most likely scenario is that, after applying some pressure, Trump will propose in a few months (or weeks?) that Putin return to the peace plan. How Putin responds will depend on the level of pressure from one side and the scope of proposals from the other. But no one is cancelling territorial claims or lifting sanctions.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p data-start=\"561\" data-end=\"988\">Finally, Trump is deliberately leaving Chinese ships untouched. He will now focus his pressure on Russia, India, and possibly Brazil. With China, the situation is far more complicated. The White House logic is to begin negotiations with Beijing when, against Xi\u2019s rare-earth card, Trump holds the oil and logistics cards. By April \u2014 the expected meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders \u2014 we may see a few more surprises.<\/p>\n<p><em>It was previously reported that the United States conducted an operation to <a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/ssha-zakhopyly-rosiyskyy-naftovyy-tanker-iakyy-peresliduvaly-dva-tyzhni\/\">seize the Russian-flagged oil tanker<\/a> Marinera, bound for Venezuela. It was later revealed that it belonged to a company linked to a businessman from <a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/ssha-zakhopyly-rosiyskyy-naftovyy-tanker-iakyy-peresliduvaly-dva-tyzhni\/\">occupied Crimea<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>In addition, off the coast of the Turkish province of Kastamonu, <a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/bilia-uzberezhzhia-turechchyny-dron-atakuvav-naftovyy-tanker-shcho-priamuvav-do-novorosiyska\/\">a drone attacked the oil tanker<\/a> Elbus, which was heading towards the Russian port of Novorossiysk. The strike damaged the upper part of the vessel, but according to preliminary data, the crew members were not injured.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Also, follow <strong>\u201cPryamyi\u201d<\/strong> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Facebook<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/prm_ua\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/+rtV4dxYu2_cyNjVi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Telegram<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Instagram<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 Materials published in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section reflect the opinion of the author of the publication, who bears full responsibility for the accuracy of the information.<\/em><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The editorial staff of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author&#8217;s material.<\/em><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The owner of the webpage in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section is the author of the publication.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Source: Author&#8217;s Facebook page Unfortunately, the U.S. game is not aimed at ending the war quickly \u2014 it is focused on the American elections in November. Trump lacks the leverage to force Putin into peace anytime soon, even if shifts in his strategy can still benefit Ukraine. Trump very publicly ordered the seizure of two [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":1342050,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76871,76872,76893],"class_list":["post-1342092","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-2","category-news-feed","category-thoughts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1342092","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1342092"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1342092\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1342152,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1342092\/revisions\/1342152"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1342050"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1342092"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1342092"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}