{"id":1354322,"date":"2026-02-05T20:54:16","date_gmt":"2026-02-05T18:54:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/the-plan-was-on-the-table-how-russia-prepared-strikes-on-ukrainian-logistics-in-advance\/"},"modified":"2026-02-06T03:32:05","modified_gmt":"2026-02-06T01:32:05","slug":"the-plan-was-on-the-table-how-russia-prepared-strikes-on-ukrainian-logistics-in-advance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/the-plan-was-on-the-table-how-russia-prepared-strikes-on-ukrainian-logistics-in-advance\/","title":{"rendered":"Pre-Planned Destruction\u201d: How Russia Mapped Ukraine\u2019s Logistics for Attack"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"s5\"><strong>In war, there are two \u201cspeeds\u201d: one for rapid advances and the other for slow, grinding attrition\u2014and both are shaping the conflict today.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>One operates on the pace of news feeds, counting \u201carrivals\u201d and \u201cshootdowns.\u201d<br data-start=\"178\" data-end=\"181\" \/>The other works on the timeline of strategy, planned not on the night of the attack but days, weeks, or even months in advance.<\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">And if we want to understand what&#8217;s really going on, we&#8217;ll have to look at the second speed.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">It was from this perspective that I recently analyzed the situation on the air of the Voice of Crimea news agency.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/bM-OwuL-mQg?si=BWDWmrQ0vsnrMNJg\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p class=\"s8\"><strong><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">And it clearly shows: massive strikes on Ukrainian energy and logistics<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">are<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">not about &#8220;random targets&#8221; or &#8220;chaotic terror.&#8221; They are about a controlled scenario in which energy, transport, and information inputs work as a single system.<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"s8\"><strong><span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">&#8220;The<\/span><\/span><span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\"> plan was on the table&#8221;<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">even before the February 3 strike.<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">We need to start here with chronology.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">And it is very revealing.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">The enemy&#8217;s intentions to attack transport logistics\u2014primarily<\/span><\/span><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\"> Ukrzaliznytsia\u2014were<\/span><\/span><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">\u00a0openly discussed as early as January 31, that is, before the massive strike on the night of February 3. We are not talking about backstage signals, but about a public Russian Telegram segment.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\">In particular, Russian Telegram channels with audiences exceeding 1.5 million openly discussed how to exploit the \u201cwindow of opportunity\u201d during the so-called \u201cenergy truce.\u201d At the same time, they highlighted vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian railway system, drawing on publicly available analytical materials.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><strong><span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">This is a fundamental point.<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">When such things are announced in advance,<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">it is not improvisation or a &#8220;reaction to the situation.&#8221; It is a planned campaign.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\">And here an uncomfortable but inevitable question arises: if the enemy\u2019s \u201cplans\u201d are publicly visible, why are they not being systematically addressed? The lack of preventive monitoring in such a war is costly\u2014especially when logistics become the target.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"s8\"><strong><span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">The European Commission, open reports and counterintelligence issues<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In the same posts I quoted, the enemy cites figures highlighting the critical condition of the Ukrainian railway fleet: more than 90% of the equipment is worn out, and the average age of electric locomotives is 40 years or more. They do not \u201cinvent\u201d these numbers\u2014they draw them from open sources, including global media reports and European Commission publications.<\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">And here I am asking the question publicly and harshly.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\">How did it happen that information about the condition of a strategic facility like Ukrzaliznytsia ended up in the public domain during a full-scale war?<\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\">This is a question for both our European partners and Ukraine\u2019s counterintelligence authorities. When the enemy plans strikes based on publicly available \u201canalytical information,\u201d it is no longer mere informational negligence\u2014it becomes a factor that directly affects the stability of the rear and endangers people\u2019s lives.<\/p>\n<p class=\"s8\"><strong><span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">From tracks<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">to<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">traction and repair bases<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">Next<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">is<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">the evolution of tactics.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">The enemy&#8217;s attacks on the tracks proved to be of limited effectiveness. The tracks are restored quickly<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">\u2014<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">sometimes in a day or two. The occupying country saw this and drew conclusions.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">Therefore, the sight shifted.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">Not rails,<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">but traction power depots, repair bases, and rolling stock modernization enterprises.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">This is no longer about &#8220;symbolic strikes.&#8221; This is about playing the long game<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">\u2014<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">about trying to reduce the system&#8217;s bandwidth for months.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">This explains the logic of strikes on key nodes like Fastov. And it is no coincidence that strikes on Fastov were recorded even earlier\u2014in<\/span><\/span><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\"> particular, on the night of December 6, 2024. The logic of choosing targets becomes readily apparent in time.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">Now let&#8217;s return to the night of February 3, 2026. A massive attack on the energy sector, which Ukrainian sources called one of the most powerful in recent times,<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">and<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">parallel pressure on logistics.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">These are not two different stories. They are one whole.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"s8\"><strong><span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">Artificial jam trap<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">The logic is simple and cynical.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\">If the railway system breaks down, all freight traffic shifts to the roads. The road network cannot handle both military logistics and triggered mass evacuations.<\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">This is how an artificial collapse is formed. It&#8217;s no longer about the front. It&#8217;s about the year as a zone of controlled artificial crisis.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\">This is where the congestion effect happens: disruptions in reserve transfers and flow collisions\u2014what I call a \u2018trap for the rear.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"s8\"><strong><span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">Underrated factor: CABs<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">While public attention is focused on the Shahed and missiles, the most devastating effect on frontline cities is the massive use of guided bombs.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\">On February <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">3,<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">data appeared on a record daily number of KABs\u2014over<\/span><\/span><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">\u00a0300. And the problem here is not only in the number. The problem is that KABs have a much more powerful warhead, and the possibilities for neutralizing them<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">are<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">extremely limited.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, the enemy began using FAB-500T aerial bombs with UMPIK-PID extended-range modules back in 2024. Such modules have an increased wing area and a longer power frame, a 12-element &#8220;Comet-M12,&#8221; and an updated &#8220;CMAPT&#8221; unit, which allows for an increase in the planning range of their use.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">According to Ukrainian intelligence, the key enterprise developing the UMPK and executing the state defense order is the Tactical Missile Launch Corporation.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\">It is noteworthy that six companies listed by the Ministry of Defense are still not subject to sanctions by any member of the sanctions coalition.<\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">Instead, the absence of these companies on the sanctions lists allows the adversary to establish a seamless supply of goods and technologies from abroad, as well as to organize the servicing of financial transactions by international banks.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">Therefore, we can state that the massive use of guided bombs by the enemy is another element of the same operation, namely, strikes on cities plus strikes on logistics = stimulation of artificial migration. People are being pushed to a simple and dangerous conclusion: &#8220;It is better to have a bad peace than to live without light, heat, and under bombs.&#8221;<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"s8\"><strong><span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">&#8220;Truce&#8221;<\/span><\/span><span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">\u00a0as a smokescreen<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">A separate block<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">is<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">political.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">The occupying country is trying to demonstrate its &#8220;negotiation capacity&#8221;: they say, &#8220;It hasn&#8217;t been hit for a week.&#8221; Meanwhile, it spreads its attacks across logistics, repair bases, transport hubs, and civilian infrastructure. <\/span><\/span><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">And then it can always say, &#8220;This isn&#8217;t energy.&#8221;<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">That&#8217;s why I call it a diplomatic fork.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">And the thesis that<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">&#8220;<\/span><\/span>the pause <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">was<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">needed to stockpile missiles&#8221;<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">looks weak. High-precision weapons cannot appear in the required numbers in just a week. This means only one thing: operations of this level are prepared in advance.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"s10\"><strong><span class=\"s7\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">What follows from this?<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\">First, attacks on energy and logistics must be viewed collectively, not as separate episodes.<\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">Second. If the enemy has shifted attention to rolling stock, depots, and repairs,<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">the defense must respond adequately: dispersal, electronic warfare, mobile fire groups, and air defense around key points.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">Third, monitoring hostile information platforms<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">is<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">an early warning tool.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">And most importantly.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">Russia&#8217;s goal<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">is<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">not a single transport hub or a single blackout.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">The goal<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">is<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">to break the will to resist through controlled chaos.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"s5\"><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">Therefore, the answer should lie not only in repairs after arrivals but also in refusing to play by someone else&#8217;s script\u2014in<\/span><\/span><span class=\"s4\"><span class=\"bumpedFont15\">\u00a0logistics, in the information field, and in dangerous illusions about a &#8220;truce,&#8221; which could very easily turn out to be a screen.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"full-post__content font-rules\">\n<p>Also, follow <strong>\u201cPryamyi\u201d<\/strong> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Facebook<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/prm_ua\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Twitter<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/+rtV4dxYu2_cyNjVi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Telegram<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Instagram<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 Materials published in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section reflect the opinion of the author of the publication, who bears full responsibility for the accuracy of the information.<\/em><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The editorial staff of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author&#8217;s material.<\/em><\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The owner of the webpage in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section is the author of the publication.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In war, there are two \u201cspeeds\u201d: one for rapid advances and the other for slow, grinding attrition\u2014and both are shaping the conflict today. One operates on the pace of news feeds, counting \u201carrivals\u201d and \u201cshootdowns.\u201dThe other works on the timeline of strategy, planned not on the night of the attack but days, weeks, or even [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":66,"featured_media":1354257,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76893],"class_list":["post-1354322","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-thoughts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1354322","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/66"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1354322"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1354322\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1354362,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1354322\/revisions\/1354362"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1354257"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1354322"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1354322"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}