{"id":1390142,"date":"2026-05-05T15:27:27","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T12:27:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/the-baltics-under-the-gun-how-russia-is-stirring-up-the-topic-of-invasion-and-testing-natos-reaction\/"},"modified":"2026-05-06T08:35:13","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T05:35:13","slug":"the-baltics-under-the-gun-how-russia-is-stirring-up-the-topic-of-invasion-and-testing-natos-reaction","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/the-baltics-under-the-gun-how-russia-is-stirring-up-the-topic-of-invasion-and-testing-natos-reaction\/","title":{"rendered":"Baltics in the Crosshairs: Russia Probes NATO\u2019s Resolve"},"content":{"rendered":"

Recently, several Estonian politicians stated that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s remarks about Russia’s possible preparations for an attack on the Baltic countries do not contribute to cooperation.<\/strong><\/p>\n

In turn, Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginene suggested avoiding intimidating rhetoric in response to Zelensky’s statements.<\/p>\n

Instead, the occupying country is purposefully pushing the topic of a possible invasion of the Baltic states through Western media, trying to influence the information space and question NATO’s readiness to respond.<\/p>\n

The appearance of information in the Western media about a possible Russian invasion of the Baltic states, in my opinion, is not accidental. Moreover, these reports are inspired by Russia itself. Lavrov’s latest statement that the end of the war in Ukraine requires security guarantees not for Kyiv, but for Russia.<\/p>\n

It is said that Russia demands clear zones of military-political influence in this country. It is no coincidence that this zone includes the post-Soviet space, in particular, the Baltic countries.<\/p>\n

As a reminder, on September 19, 2025, Russian fighter jets violated Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland and remained there for a total of 12 minutes. NATO reported that they had intercepted the aircraft.<\/p>\n

And on September 23, the North Atlantic Council met at Estonia’s request in accordance with Article 4 of the Washington Treaty to discuss and strongly condemn Russia’s dangerous violation of the country’s airspace.<\/p>\n

Secondly, against the backdrop of reports in Western media, in particular Reuters, the Russian State Duma is adopting a law on the possibility of using armed forces to protect Russian citizens and the Russian-speaking population. That is, a clear political and informational signal is being given about the possibility of conducting hybrid operations or direct military invasion.<\/p>\n

First of all, this step is aimed at the United States and its allies. Russia thus demonstrates its readiness for further escalation scenarios and, in fact, declares its “right” to preemptively use armed forces to protect its own citizens or the Russian-speaking population abroad.<\/p>\n

Thirdly, a meeting of the head of the State Security Committee of Belarus and the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation is taking place in Kaliningrad. This city is a Russian exclave. Accordingly, a signal is being given to the Baltic countries and Poland regarding the possibility of implementing the Suwalki Corridor. That is, a direct invasion of Russian units from Belarus to create a land corridor, which, according to the Russians, should connect Belarus with the Kaliningrad region.<\/p>\n

Against this background, the hysteria in the Western media is the active operations of Russian special services in the information space with the aim of shaping public opinion.<\/p>\n

The latter advances two theses. The first is the Baltic countries’ unwillingness to defend their own states. The second is the unwillingness of Western countries to apply Article 5 of the NATO Charter on collective security. This primarily concerns the Baltic countries.<\/p>\n

At the same time, the thesis about possible territorial concessions by NATO countries in the event of the occupation of the Baltic countries is being put forward.<\/p>\n

I also draw your attention to the fact that statements about the possible imminent seizure of the Baltic states are part of the Russian information campaign aimed at instilling fear and undermining confidence in NATO, while the preparation of large-scale exercises by the Alliance in Estonia indicates readiness to counter Russian aggression.<\/p>\n

According to the former head of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense, K. Budanov, such actions have two goals:<\/p>\n

-information pressure: destabilizing the situation within partner countries
\n-military test: testing NATO’s real readiness to respond to threats.<\/p>\n

According to Budanov, the task of the Russian special services and military is to prepare the ground, and the political decision will be made at the last moment. However, in his opinion, the main obstacle for the Kremlin is the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

He also said that Russia is already forming a strategic reserve, but the Russian Federation cannot fight on two fronts. “Russia is forming a strategic reserve; it is being created. Strategically, it is being formed, but it has not yet acquired the capabilities that the Russians dream of. But I tell you again: as long as there is a large-scale war here, no. Fighting on two fronts\u2014World War II has shown that this is a disaster,” Budanov noted.<\/p>\n

Against the backdrop of all these reports, a report from a so-called think tank from Lithuania appears, which says that in 3 months the Russians can take over the entire country, and not a word about the implementation of NATO’s Article 5. However, it is worth giving a complete picture of the situation.<\/p>\n

The fact is that the largest NATO exercises are being held in Estonia, which is using a scenario to counter Russian aggression.<\/p>\n

Additional units from NATO countries are also being redeployed, including to Estonia. There is also talk of strengthening military infrastructure, particularly in the Narva area.<\/p>\n

In addition, NATO naval forces have increased in the Baltic region.<\/p>\n

Both the Baltic countries and Sweden are involved in this process. Actions to restrict the activities of the so-called “shadow fleet” of Russia, in particular the detention of relevant vessels, are also recorded. In the broader context, the strengthening of NATO’s military presence in this region is systemic. Back in 2015, the then commander of NATO forces in Europe called the corridor the “Achilles heel” of the alliance.<\/p>\n

Since then, measures have been taken to prevent such a development, in particular by strengthening defensive positions in Poland and the Baltic countries.<\/p>\n

Let me remind you that Russian propaganda is actively spreading the thesis that the Baltic countries and Poland allegedly allowed Ukraine to use their airspace to strike Russian ports around St. Petersburg, and the Foreign Ministry of the occupying country stated that it had “warned” the Baltic states.<\/p>\n

In addition, the Russian Ministry of Defense published a list of alleged addresses in Europe where enterprises jointly producing UAVs with Ukraine are located, hinting at “retaliatory measures.”<\/p>\n

Also, follow \u201cPryamyi\u201d<\/strong> on Facebook<\/a>, X<\/a>, Telegram<\/a>, and Instagram.<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2022 Materials published in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section reflect the opinion of the author of the publication, who bears full responsibility for the accuracy of the information.<\/em>
\n\u2022 The editorial staff of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author’s material.<\/em>
\n\u2022 The owner of the webpage in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section is the author of the publication.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Recently, several Estonian politicians stated that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s remarks about Russia’s possible preparations for an attack on the Baltic countries do not contribute to cooperation. In turn, Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginene suggested avoiding intimidating rhetoric in response to Zelensky’s statements. Instead, the occupying country is purposefully pushing the topic of a possible invasion […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":59,"featured_media":1390127,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76871,76872,76893],"class_list":["post-1390142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-2","category-news-feed","category-thoughts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1390142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/59"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1390142"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1390142\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1390323,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1390142\/revisions\/1390323"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1390127"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1390142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1390142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}