{"id":1395707,"date":"2026-05-21T10:28:32","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T07:28:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/the-threat-of-an-offensive-from-belarus-is-it-real\/"},"modified":"2026-05-21T10:28:32","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T07:28:32","slug":"the-threat-of-an-offensive-from-belarus-is-it-real","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/the-threat-of-an-offensive-from-belarus-is-it-real\/","title":{"rendered":"The threat of an offensive from Belarus &#8211; is it real?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Source: Author&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/denys.popovych.3\/posts\/pfbid0dYfZ76z84niJKLYFfwEt5so9BYMpohihi7Z4uLnihNonw24LkDd13vASuYXv89Qul\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Facebook<\/a> page<\/em><\/p>\n<p> <strong>Many are now eagerly commenting on the statement of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, about the threat of an offensive from Belarus and Russian operations from the north.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p> Everywhere it is presented as if Syrsky warned about this as an imminent threat. Since I already foresee a bunch of questions on this subject, here is my interpretation, which borders on friendly advice.<\/p>\n<p> Colleagues, listen to the ENTIRE interview. It was taken by a correspondent for Militarny and is available on this publication&#8217;s YouTube channel.<\/p>\n<p> The phrase about an attack from Belarus and a threat from the north was taken out of context!<\/p>\n<p> It was voiced in the context of the question of corps reform. Answering this question, Oleksandr Syrsky began to talk about the stages of this reform. In particular, he explained that the process has already passed the stage of creating corps management bodies, and is now at the level of creating corps sets. At the third stage, according to him, the issue of moving brigades may arise.<\/p>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" >\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/russia-wants-to-drag-belarus-into-war-against-ukraine-which-areas-are-at-risk\/\">Russia wants to drag Belarus into war against Ukraine: which areas are at risk?<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<p> But this cannot be done just like that in wartime, since the front line tends to expand and you cannot just pull out a combat brigade from a certain direction. Here, Oleksandr Syrsky gave an example of such a possible expansion, recalling Volodymyr Zelensky&#8217;s recent statement about the probable threat from Belarus and the preparation of operations from the north, which, according to the Commander-in-Chief, could lead to an increase in the front line. At the same time, Syrsky emphasized that the Russian command is indeed planning such operations and this is quite real.<\/p>\n<p> This thesis became the information driver of the evening. But if you listen to the interview further, the conversation there is again about reforming and staffing the army, rotation, etc. The correspondent did not even begin to develop the issue of Belarus. That is, the interview was not at all dedicated to the topic of a new invasion from Belarus. There was a lot of other important information, and the story with Belarus was only mentioned in passing.<\/p>\n<p> Further to the point. Is the enemy trying to stretch the front? Yes, he is constantly trying to disperse our reserves and divert attention from the main directions of his efforts. Sumy and Kharkiv regions are vivid examples of this.<\/p>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" data-right>\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/joint-nuclear-exercises-with-russia-have-begun-in-belarus-details\/\">Joint nuclear exercises with Russia have begun in Belarus: details<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<p> Does the Russian Federation have any plans to invade Ukraine from Belarus? Yes! Such an invasion has already happened once. Let me remind you, it happened on February 24, 2022. And if it happened once, then it could happen a second time. Belarus under Lukashenko is an ally and vassal of the Russian Federation, so the danger from the north exists, and we must constantly prepare for it while the war is ongoing.<\/p>\n<p> Other operations in the north are also planned by the Russians. In particular, there are options for creating a so-called &#8220;buffer zone&#8221; in the border area of Chernihiv region. This is completely open information. This was reported by the deputy head of the OP Pavlo Palisa even before today&#8217;s interview with Syrsky, in April of this year.<\/p>\n<p> In October last year, the deputy head of the GUR, Vadym Skibitsky, said the same thing, explaining the reasons for the massive shelling of the border areas of Sumy and Chernihiv regions.<\/p>\n<p> And even before that, the then head of the SZRU, Oleg Ivashchenko, mentioned these same intentions. In addition, both Skibitsky and Ivashchenko also stated Russia&#8217;s intentions to use the territory of Belarus for actions against Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p> None of this is news! Lukashenko has been being swayed for five years now, either to help Russia invade Ukraine from the north again, or to directly enter the war himself.<\/p>\n<p> But is this realistic? Pavlo Palisa answers this question in his extensive interview, which was published yesterday, a few hours before Syrsky&#8217;s interview. Palisa clearly explains that for a new offensive from the north, the Russians need a conscious group, which is not there now.<\/p>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" >\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/lukashenko-significantly-increased-the-military-budget-of-belarus-where-to-expect-a-blow\/\">Lukashenko significantly increased the military budget of Belarus: where to expect a blow<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<p> He also explains why it is impossible and unprofitable for Lukashenko to attack Ukraine now. According to Palisa, the main efforts of the Russians this summer will be concentrated in the east and south (not from the north!), That is, in the Donetsk and Zaporizhia regions. Oleksandr Syrskyi identifies the same directions. At the same time, the deputy head of the OP directly states that the Russian army will not fulfill the tasks set for the summer, emphasizing that the situation at the front, on the contrary, creates reasons for cautious optimism.<\/p>\n<p> That&#8217;s all with the factual material. I&#8217;ll say this from myself. In the fifth year of the war, one could already get used to critical thinking and listen completely to at least what sounds at least in Ukrainian. Especially what concerns sensitive topics. Such as, for example, the attack on Kyiv.<\/p>\n<p> Next, it would be good to gather together what has already been said on these topics in open sources. This is called an analysis that reveals the picture. In particular, when we remember the offensive from Belarus every year, for some reason we forget that at least troops are needed for this. So that there is someone to attack! In 2022, they were there. Now they are gone. Maybe they will appear again someday. This cannot be ruled out either. But now they are gone. There is no one to attack from Belarus on Kyiv, Lutsk, Kovel or Sarny. Therefore, let&#8217;s stop panicking.<\/p>\n<p> Also follow <strong>\u201cPryamim\u201d<\/strong> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Facebook<\/a> , <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/prm_ua\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">X<\/a> , <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/+rtV4dxYu2_cyNjVi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Telegram<\/a> , and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Instagram.<\/a><\/p>\n<p> <em>\u2022 <span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\">Materials published in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section reflect the opinion of the author of the publication, who bears full responsibility for the accuracy of the information.<\/span><\/em><br \/> <span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The editorial staff of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author&#8217;s material.<\/em><\/span><br \/> <span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The owner of the webpage in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section is the author of the publication.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Source: Author&#8217;s Facebook page Many are now eagerly commenting on the statement of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, about the threat of an offensive from Belarus and Russian operations from the north. Everywhere it is presented as if Syrsky warned about this as an imminent threat. Since I already foresee [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":1244775,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76871,76872,76893],"class_list":["post-1395707","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-2","category-news-feed","category-thoughts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1395707","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1395707"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1395707\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1244775"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1395707"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1395707"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}