{"id":1398062,"date":"2026-05-27T12:00:12","date_gmt":"2026-05-27T09:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/dictators-fears-why-zelensky-provokes-lukashenko\/"},"modified":"2026-05-27T12:00:12","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T09:00:12","slug":"dictators-fears-why-zelensky-provokes-lukashenko","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/dictators-fears-why-zelensky-provokes-lukashenko\/","title":{"rendered":"Dictator&#8217;s fears: why Zelensky provokes Lukashenko"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>Source: Author&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/MykolaKniazhytsky\/posts\/pfbid0GdTH1YkbXR9GSpwRqzvD6kZArsackE3BxkE4M3LxRs7hPyCnTYt2VS8YE5Jud8B4l\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Facebook<\/a> page<\/em><\/p>\n<p> <strong>Since 2026, Ukraine has been conducting a dialogue with the Belarusian authorities from a position of strength. Lukashenko understands this, and does not respond with a single word to all the attacks of Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p> For several months, Ukraine has been pressuring Lukashenko with its rhetoric. Since February, when Zelensky imposed personal sanctions against Lukashenko, Ukraine&#8217;s position has only become tougher. Statements about drawing Belarus into a war against Ukraine and preparing a new invasion across the Belarusian borders are heard from Ukrainian officials almost daily. And a few days after Lukashenko offered to come to Ukraine himself to resolve all issues, Svitlana Tikhanovskaya arrives in Kyiv and is met at the highest state level.<\/p>\n<p> It is obvious that no invasion is being prepared from Belarus right now. This requires a concentration of forces, which neither Lukashenko nor Putin currently have. Even the unsuccessful offensive of 2022 will not be able to be repeated today with the same forces, because drones and the combat experience of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have changed a lot. Therefore, neither Western intelligence agencies nor analytical centers that monitor the situation in Belarus itself observe any signs of Belarus preparing for any escalation.<\/p>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" >\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/northern-threat-is-russia-really-preparing-a-new-offensive-from-belarus\/\">Northern threat: is Russia really preparing a new offensive from Belarus?<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<p> Moreover, in the event of expanding the geography of the use of Ukrainian UAVs to the territory of Belarus, Lukashenko will simply have nothing to answer. If today Russia has two refineries in Belarus, which Ukraine does not burn, and therefore the Russians can count on them during periods of fuel shortage, then after the invasion from Belarus, the fate of these plants is not difficult to predict. Russia is not able to protect its refineries, so can anyone count on them to protect the Belarusian ones better?<\/p>\n<p> But, despite this, Zelensky&#8217;s rhetoric does not change. It looks as if our government is trying to provoke Lukashenko, so that he just gives a pretext. Lukashenko understands this and at the same time is aware of the current balance of power between the armed forces of Ukraine and Belarus. Therefore, he is silent and does not respond to Zelensky&#8217;s attacks, although we all know that he usually likes to talk.<\/p>\n<p> The question arises, what exactly is Zelensky provoking Lukashenko to do? No one will believe in the preparation of Ukraine&#8217;s invasion of Belarus. But, on the other hand, no one believed in the invasion of the Kursk region either. Today, Zelensky&#8217;s attitude towards Lukashenko resembles Trump&#8217;s attitude towards Maduro on the eve of the American military operation. Perhaps this is the goal &#8211; to keep Lukashenko in suspense, using strategic uncertainty about Ukrainian plans, so that he does not make unnecessary moves and again begins to remember &#8220;where the attack on Belarus was being prepared from.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p> For decades, Russia has sold its main product to post-Soviet tyrannies \u2013 the illusion of \u201csecurity guarantees.\u201d Now we are witnessing a fundamental breakdown: Moscow is unable to protect even its own refineries, and even the presence of nuclear weapons has not helped to avoid strikes by Ukrainian drones.<\/p>\n\t\t<aside class=\"shortcode-also\" data-title=\"Read also\" data-right>\n\t\t<a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/the-threat-of-an-offensive-from-belarus-is-it-real\/\">The threat of an offensive from Belarus &#8211; is it real?<\/a>\n\t<\/aside>\n\n<p> Lukashenko understands this new reality perfectly well, which is why he is panicking about the deterioration of relations with Kyiv. But we have no right to forget where exactly the Russian tanks in Bucha, Gostomel, and Borodyanka came from \u2013 the Minsk dictator has already made his choice. Now his paralyzing fear is the real sign of Ukraine\u2019s new role, which has clearly destroyed the myth of the all-powerful Kremlin\u2019s security guarantees.<\/p>\n<p> <em>Recall that, according to the military, <a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/rosiia-hotuie-100-tysiach-viyskovykh-dlia-nastupu-z-terytorii-bilorusi-detali\/\">Russia is considering several scenarios<\/a> for new offensive operations in the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction, which may begin no earlier than the fall of 2026. To this end, the Kremlin plans to conduct a new wave of mobilization of 100,000 people.<\/em><\/p>\n<p> <em>Meanwhile <a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/rf-posylyla-vplyv-na-bilorus-pislia-iadernykh-navchan-isw\/\">, Russia and Belarus completed joint nuclear exercises<\/a> on May 21, which included ammunition deliveries, missile launches, and missile transfers. The Institute for the Study of War believes this demonstrates Russia\u2019s influence over Belarus and the country\u2019s potential involvement in future Russian military operations.<\/em><\/p>\n<p> <em>Earlier, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky held a meeting with the heads of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the General Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, the Central Military District of the Ukrainian SSR, and the Security Service of Ukraine regarding the security situation and Russia&#8217;s actions. They discussed Russia&#8217;s attempts <a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/rosiia-khoche-zatiahnuty-bilorus-u-viynu-proty-ukrainy-iaki-dilianky-pid-zahrozoiu\/\">to increase Belarus&#8217; involvement<\/a> in the war against Ukraine and possible threats in certain areas. The head of state also previously stated about <a href=\"https:\/\/prm.ua\/ukraina-zafiksuvala-spetsyfichnu-aktyvnist-bilorusi-shcho-vidomo-pro-sytuatsiiu-na-prykordonni\/\">&#8220;specific activity&#8221; on the part of Belarus<\/a> on sections of the Ukrainian border.<\/em><\/p>\n<p> Also follow <strong>\u201cPryamim\u201d<\/strong> on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Facebook<\/a> , <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/prm_ua\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">X<\/a> , <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/+rtV4dxYu2_cyNjVi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener nofollow\">Telegram<\/a> , and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/pryamiy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Instagram.<\/a><\/p>\n<p> <span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 Materials published in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section reflect the opinion of the author of the publication, who bears full responsibility for the accuracy of the information.<\/em><\/span><br \/> <span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The editorial staff of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author&#8217;s material.<\/em><\/span><br \/> <span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><em>\u2022 The owner of the webpage in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section is the author of the publication.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Source: Author&#8217;s Facebook page Since 2026, Ukraine has been conducting a dialogue with the Belarusian authorities from a position of strength. Lukashenko understands this, and does not respond with a single word to all the attacks of Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials. For several months, Ukraine has been pressuring Lukashenko with its rhetoric. Since February, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":1396514,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76871,76872,76893],"class_list":["post-1398062","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-2","category-news-feed","category-thoughts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1398062","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/57"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1398062"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1398062\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1396514"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1398062"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1398062"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}