{"id":1415960,"date":"2026-07-09T15:15:59","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T12:15:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/one-step-closer-to-your-own-shield-prospects-and-potential-threats-of-localization-of-anti-ballistic-weapons-in-ukraine\/"},"modified":"2026-07-09T15:15:59","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T12:15:59","slug":"one-step-closer-to-your-own-shield-prospects-and-potential-threats-of-localization-of-anti-ballistic-weapons-in-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/one-step-closer-to-your-own-shield-prospects-and-potential-threats-of-localization-of-anti-ballistic-weapons-in-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"One step closer to your own \u201cshield\u201d: prospects and potential threats of localization of anti-ballistic weapons in Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"

During a press conference on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, US President Donald Trump said that Washington is ready to grant Ukraine a license to produce missiles for Patriot systems.<\/strong><\/p>\n

According to Trump, after the transfer of the license, Kyiv will no longer be able to reproach Washington for insufficient assistance, as it will be able to produce missiles independently. At the same time, Trump admitted that the manufacturer of Patriot systems has not yet been informed of this decision, but expressed confidence that the issue will be resolved.<\/p>\n

It is worth noting that Donald Trump’s statement about the possible transfer of a license to Ukraine to produce Patriot missiles may be not only a practical solution, but also a political signal. Such a step should be considered as an element of military-political pressure on Russia. With such a statement, the US is eliminating the last lever of pressure on Russia – ballistics.<\/p>\n

Ukraine and Russia understand that political pressure is increasing around the topic of war. Therefore, the license application may concern not so much the immediate launch of production as the historical perspective and further steps by the United States to strengthen Ukrainian defense capabilities.<\/p>\n

The practical deployment of such production cannot be quick. It involves a full production cycle, components, as well as a protected site that must be covered by air defense systems or located deep underground.<\/p>\n

This takes time. Up to six months at least.<\/p>\n

At the same time, I do not exclude that the application for the transfer of the license to Ukraine may not mean the location of production on Ukrainian territory. The most likely option is Poland. This is the most likely situation – the location of production in Poland. After all, this is a NATO country, its territory is not under the blows of Russian ballistic missiles, and logistics allow for the transfer of anti-ballistic missiles to Ukraine quite quickly.<\/p>\n

Let me remind you that at the end of May 2026, the US State Department granted Poland preliminary permission to start producing interceptor missiles for the American MIM-104 Patriot systems. These are PAC-3 MSE anti-ballistic missiles capable of intercepting ballistic targets using a direct kinetic strike. The production is planned to be organized within a consortium of Polish defense enterprises. In particular, companies that are part of the Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa group.<\/p>\n

In my opinion, it is worth highlighting two aspects of this statement. The first is military-political pressure on Russia. The second is a demonstration that Trump is publicly taking a pro-Ukrainian position and is ready to transfer the license to Ukraine.<\/p>\n

However, this decision may also pose risks for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

I draw attention to Trump’s words that after the transfer of the license, Kyiv will no longer be able to “reprove Washington for insufficient assistance.” In my opinion, this will allow the US to shift responsibility for the shortage of anti-ballistic missiles onto Ukraine itself.<\/p>\n

The US has transferred the license \u2014 and they no longer care how many the Ukrainian military-industrial complex has produced: one hundred, two hundred or three hundred. The US understands perfectly well the limited production capabilities. But on the other hand, they are beating out Zelensky\u2019s rhetoric regarding constant accusations against the US. The Ukrainian side will have nothing more to argue.<\/p>\n

The problem is that even the United States has limited capabilities to produce such missiles, and Ukraine needs much larger volumes to fully cover itself from massive strikes.<\/p>\n

The annual production volume of the main PAC-3 MSE anti-ballistic interceptor missiles for the Patriot air defense system in the United States is currently about 600\u2013620 units per year. In 2025, the manufacturer demonstrated a record pace and transferred 620 missiles to customers. It is worth noting that the figure increased by 60% compared to 2023, when 380 units were produced. Currently, thanks to additional funding from the defense sector and a new Pentagon contract for $ 4.7 billion, Lockheed Martin is ahead of schedule and plans to reach a volume of 750 missiles per year by 2027 (the initial plan was 650 units).<\/p>\n

I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the development cycle of one PAC-3 MSE missile is very long and takes from 23 to 25 months. The main problem remains the shortage of high-tech components from subcontractors, in particular homing heads (produced by Boeing) and solid rocket motors from L3Harris. It is precisely because of the shortage of these parts that the US has previously been unable to quickly increase the licensed production of Patriot at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries plants in Japan.<\/p>\n

However, we need up to 300 missiles per month to intercept 150 Russian missiles.<\/p>\n

However, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, in 2026 the military-industrial complex of the occupying country plans to supply up to 700 9M723 ballistic missiles for the Iskander missile defense system – the same number as last year. The monthly production rate of these missiles remains at the level of 55-60 units.<\/p>\n

In addition, according to the GUR of the Ministry of Defense, the enemy has more than doubled the production of RM-48U strike missiles for the S-300PM\/S-400 air defense systems, which the occupiers use to strike ground targets. In 2026, it is planned to produce more than 480 such missiles, while in 2025 this figure was more than 200 units. Currently, their monthly production rate is up to 50 units.<\/p>\n

This year, Russia also plans to deliver up to 60 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles.<\/p>\n

And, accordingly, if the US transfers the license to Ukraine, they can say: “we gave you the opportunity to produce, now it is your responsibility.”<\/p>\n

The transfer of the license may be an important step for the future, but it will not solve the problem of the missile shortage quickly and will not replace Ukraine’s current need for ready-made missile defense equipment.<\/p>\n

Also follow \u201cPryamim\u201d<\/strong> on Facebook<\/a> , X<\/a> , Telegram<\/a> , and Instagram.<\/a><\/p>\n

The materials published in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section reflect the opinion of the author of the publication, who bears full responsibility for the accuracy of the information.<\/em>
\u2022 The editorial staff of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author’s material.<\/em>
\u2022 The owner of the webpage in the \u201cOPINIONS\u201d section is the author of the publication.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

During a press conference on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Ankara, US President Donald Trump said that Washington is ready to grant Ukraine a license to produce missiles for Patriot systems. According to Trump, after the transfer of the license, Kyiv will no longer be able to reproach Washington for insufficient assistance, as […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":59,"featured_media":1415939,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ep_exclude_from_search":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[76871,76872,76874,76893],"class_list":["post-1415960","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-2","category-news-feed","category-war","category-thoughts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1415960","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/59"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1415960"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1415960\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1415939"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1415960"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1415960"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}