{"id":1449952,"date":"2026-10-07T18:06:20","date_gmt":"2026-10-07T15:06:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/maritime-blackmail-strategy-why-russia-is-sinking-civilian-ships-in-natos-area-of-responsibility\/"},"modified":"2026-10-07T18:06:20","modified_gmt":"2026-10-07T15:06:20","slug":"maritime-blackmail-strategy-why-russia-is-sinking-civilian-ships-in-natos-area-of-responsibility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/maritime-blackmail-strategy-why-russia-is-sinking-civilian-ships-in-natos-area-of-responsibility\/","title":{"rendered":"Maritime Blackmail Strategy: Why Russia Is Sinking Civilian Ships in NATO’s Area of Responsibility."},"content":{"rendered":"

Russian drone attacks on civilian merchant vessels in the Black Sea have sharply increased, extending beyond Ukrainian routes to international waters and the economic zones of NATO countries. The most recent incidents, which occurred on October 5\u20136, 2026, resulted in casualties among foreign crews and the sinking of a commercial fleet.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Yesterday, news broke of a Russian drone attack on the Turkish-flagged vessel ROYAD MAMMADOV. The ship was off the coast of Romania and carrying corn. The attack killed the captain and another sailor, and 11 crew members were evacuated to shore.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Russian drones attacked two Turkish cargo vessels in Bulgaria’s exclusive maritime economic zone. The ALFA WATAN sank. A fire broke out on another bulk carrier, but Bulgarian rescuers managed to evacuate 18 sailors. According to the Romanian Ministry of the Interior, two people died in the incident.<\/p>\n

Against this backdrop, the question arises: can Russian drone strikes on civilian vessels in NATO countries’ areas of responsibility be considered aggression against the Alliance, and what consequences might a series of such incidents lead to?<\/p>\n

At the same time, attacks on civilian shipping in the Black Sea have a much broader purpose than the destruction of individual ships.<\/p>\n

During the summer months, there were approximately 50 attacks on ships transporting cargo from or to Ukrainian ports. It is noteworthy that, against the backdrop of the de facto blockade of Ukraine’s port infrastructure, EU countries are deciding to restrict Ukraine’s ability to export agricultural products by rail.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

As a reminder, Poland and Romania have officially announced that they are unable to increase the transit of Ukrainian grain through their territories amid the escalating situation in the Black Sea. This decision complicates the operation of EU land logistics routes and jeopardizes the export of millions of tons of grain.<\/p>\n

Poland’s Ministry of Infrastructure announced that it does not plan additional measures to expand the transit of Ukrainian agricultural products, citing congestion at railway junctions and political pressure from Polish farmers.<\/p>\n

The European Commission states that it is continuing negotiations with all member states to avoid new logistical barriers. Brussels notes that the transit of Ukrainian grain is a key element of global food security, and any restrictions could impact markets in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.<\/p>\n

It should be noted that after this resonant decision, the occupying country sharply intensified attacks on shipping in the Black Sea basin.<\/p>\n

One of the main consequences of such enemy actions is the attempt to block Ukraine’s maritime exports. According to shipping brokers, while hundreds of ships were docking monthly at the ports of Greater Odessa by July, following the enemy’s change in tactics and a series of direct hits on civilian vessels, the ports of Odessa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhne are in critical condition, with their potential throughput capacity at the very least reduced.<\/p>\n

This simultaneously impacts Kyiv’s international standing, budget revenues, and the operations of carriers. Due to the increased risks, shipping companies are forced to raise insurance costs, making Ukrainian exports more expensive.<\/p>\n

The main consequence of Russian terrorism was not only the physical destruction of terminals but also the decision by international companies to completely abandon Ukrainian ports. While shipowners had previously accepted the risks, after the October 2026 attacks in neutral waters and the economic zones of NATO countries, the danger became guaranteed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture predicts that the prolonged port shutdown will cost the state at least $8 billion in lost revenue by mid-2027. This represents approximately 20% of the country’s total export revenue for last year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukraine had expected to export 64 million tons of agricultural products by sea and land, but due to the blockade of deep-water harbors, it will realistically be able to export only half of that amount.<\/p>\n

In this way, Moscow is trying not only to weaken the Ukrainian economy, but also to push Ukraine out of the\u00a0 <\/span>international food markets and take its place.<\/p>\n

This is the multi-vector nature of the operation. It is no coincidence that the occupying power rejected Ukraine’s proposed ceasefire regarding non-attacks on civilian vessels in the Black Sea basin.<\/p>\n

According to Ukrainian Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food Taras Vysotsky, following the talks in Brussels, all diplomatic rounds have reached a dead end. Intermediary countries attempting to establish dialogue with Moscow confirmed that the Kremlin categorically refuses to compromise.<\/p>\n

The Russian Foreign Ministry publicly justifies its refusal by citing the failure to fulfill the terms of the preliminary agreements, and the West’s failure to ease sanctions on Russian exports of raw materials, fertilizers, and bank payments. Moscow is attempting to negotiate the lifting of key financial restrictions in exchange for the safety of civilian shipping.<\/p>\n

A separate issue is the response of NATO countries near whose territories such attacks occur. This primarily concerns Romania and Bulgaria, where Russian drones have been spotted off their coasts, as well as Turkey, whose flagged vessels have already been repeatedly hit.<\/p>\n

Following the Russian drone attacks, Bulgaria called for Article 4 of the NATO Treaty to be activated to allow consultations due to the direct threat to shipping safety.<\/p>\n

Bulgarian Prime Minister Rumen Radev expressed strong protest and condemned the attack by aerial and naval drones on two commercial vessels in the country’s exclusive economic zone. The Bulgarian prime minister called the attack, which resulted in the sinking of one of the vessels, “a flagrant violation of international maritime law.”<\/p>\n

Due to the emergency in Bulgaria, an emergency meeting was immediately convened with the participation of relevant ministries (defense, internal affairs, transport, environment), the Office of the President and the security services.<\/p>\n

Please note that NATO countries do not always destroy Russian drones even when they violate their airspace. Such cases have been recorded, for example, in Poland.<\/p>\n

The reasons for this abstention vary. Polish authorities, in particular, are trying to avoid a direct escalation with the Kremlin. Romania is taking a more assertive stance and has declared its readiness to shoot down Russian weapons.<\/p>\n

One possible response is military escort of civilian vessels. Russia itself has used a similar practice to protect ships of its so-called “shadow fleet.” However, for NATO countries, this means additional costs and the need to deploy more military resources.<\/p>\n

Kyiv, together with its allies, is urgently seeking diplomatic and military solutions to restore navigation security, particularly through the deployment of NATO air defenses in the Black Sea.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A series of such incidents allows the Russians to simultaneously test the capabilities of the Alliance’s air defense systems and the limits of their political response\u2014including the conditions under which the allies are prepared to move from statements to real action.<\/p>\n

Under international law, violating the airspace of a sovereign state is considered a serious act of aggression and a violation of state sovereignty. A state has every right to destroy a military target, specifically an aircraft, missile, or drone, that has entered its airspace without permission. For example, in 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian Su-24. At the time, this led to a diplomatic crisis, not a war.<\/p>\n

But, unfortunately, we see a restrained reaction, to put it mildly, from our neighbors.<\/p>\n

The main goal of Russian strikes on ports and civilian vessels is to completely deprive Ukraine of maritime export revenues. Since the Black Sea is a key financial channel for the Ukrainian agricultural sector, the Kremlin is using the ceasefire’s demise as a tool for long-term economic pressure, attempting to provoke a crisis and bankrupt Ukrainian farmers.<\/p>\n

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called attacks on civilian shipping “unacceptable” and pledged full solidarity with NATO and EU countries on their eastern flank.<\/p>\n

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