{"id":1452321,"date":"2026-10-13T17:42:08","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T14:42:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/mistaken-actions-of-the-ukrainian-authorities-mistakes-in-diplomacy-what-putin-is-counting-on\/"},"modified":"2026-10-13T17:42:08","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T14:42:08","slug":"mistaken-actions-of-the-ukrainian-authorities-mistakes-in-diplomacy-what-putin-is-counting-on","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/mistaken-actions-of-the-ukrainian-authorities-mistakes-in-diplomacy-what-putin-is-counting-on\/","title":{"rendered":"Mistaken actions of the Ukrainian authorities, mistakes in diplomacy: what Putin is counting on"},"content":{"rendered":"

Source<\/strong> : Author’s Facebook<\/a> page.<\/p>\n

A draft of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, which is being promoted by the United States, has been published by The Washington Post columnist David Ignatius. He cites his own sources and claims that, despite Trump\u2019s recent outbursts of anger, the United States and Europe are moving towards developing a joint peace proposal that includes financial benefits and security guarantees for both Ukraine and Russia. What he has published looks quite interesting, but I have reasonable doubts that the Kremlin will agree to them. But about everything in turn.<\/strong><\/p>\n

According to Ignatius, the United States has formed a package of proposals that, in the opinion of the White House, will make it possible to satisfy the post-war needs of Kyiv and Moscow, as well as put an end to the bloodshed and improve the situation of both countries, offering them a kind of bonus in exchange for a territorial compromise.<\/p>\n

The package of proposals will consist of four main components, an American official told Ignatius. The message to Putin, he said, will be this: it is not enough to simply end the war with Ukraine \u2014 make an economic and security agreement with Europe that will restore stability to the region. It seems that the main goal of this plan is not just to end the war, but to offer the Kremlin a commercial deal that could help to separate Russia from China. I could be wrong, but it seems to me that this is a false hope, although the United States still hopes to break this Russian-Chinese symbiosis.<\/p>\n

The first component of the initiative will be the reconstruction of Ukraine, the column says. The World Bank and investment company BlackRock want to create a mechanism that will allow for the reconstruction of destroyed areas of Ukraine, provide payments to the families of dead and wounded soldiers, and revive the country’s shattered economy. Negotiators have asked their Ukrainian counterparts for detailed cost estimates.<\/p>\n

The second component would be security guarantees. The United States and European countries would be required to provide military assistance to Ukraine in the event of another Russian attack. The American official described the commitment as equivalent to Article 5 of the NATO treaty. Russia would also negotiate with Europe on agreements that would take into account its security concerns, he said.<\/p>\n

The third component would be economic integration between Russia, Ukraine, and Europe through an energy deal. One possible option would be a pipeline to supply Russian oil and gas to Europe, with the profits shared between Ukraine and Russia. In addition to granting Russia \u201clong-term access to the European energy market,\u201d the peace deal would determine which sanctions would be lifted and when.<\/p>\n

The final component of the deal will be the most thorny for the sides. They will agree to a ceasefire along the front line. One obstacle is that it remains vaguely defined.<\/p>\n

It is noted that although the EU has publicly expressed outrage over Trump’s agreement with Vladimir Putin on diesel fuel, it seems that they are determined to continue the diplomatic process led by Kushner and Witkoff.<\/p>\n

“It is now important to reduce tensions and get back to work,” the European diplomat explained.<\/p>\n

I can say three things in conclusion.<\/p>\n

1. If it were a rational solution, Russia would agree. But we are talking about Putin and his imperial ambitions. Therefore, as long as he has the opportunity to fight, he will not stop. Therefore, increasing attacks on refineries, ports, hubs and data centers, and later on the energy system, will give much more motivation to end the war than all the arguments of this plan. By the way, attacks on the shadow fleet can accelerate the end of the war. Because what to do is clear.<\/p>\n

2. Putin needs to somehow explain to the Russians why he started this senseless war. At the same time, he does not even have access to the administrative border of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, so that he could try to sell the ochlos as a victory. Now, on the contrary, the Russian army is losing territory in these temporarily occupied regions. It is almost impossible to sell this as a victory, even to people like the Russians. Putin will agree to end the war only when he loses the ability to conduct combat operations or when he loses power. We are satisfied with both options.<\/p>\n

3. Now Putin hopes that he will be able to destroy the EU’s support for Ukraine by influencing the elections. The Kremlin also expects that the Ukrainian authorities’ bad actions, diplomatic mistakes, and focus on corrupt enrichment, which have become a strong demoralizing factor for Ukrainians and partners, will affect the general state of affairs. And here it is important to remove the factors that Putin is counting on. Time will do something, NABU and SAPO will do something, and the actions and demands of our European allies will do something. And only when Putin is convinced that the puzzle is not being put together, will a window of opportunity for real negotiations be opened. And for now, I have no hope for the implementation of this plan. Unfortunately…<\/p>\n

As a reminder, the US and Europe have previously begun discussing a new peace proposal<\/a> that includes the reconstruction of Ukraine, security guarantees, economic agreements with Russia, and a ceasefire along the front line. However, there are no final agreements on these conditions.<\/p>\n

In addition, Europe criticized Donald Trump’s diesel deal with Vladimir Putin<\/a> . Representatives of Great Britain, Finland and the European Union spoke out against easing sanctions pressure on Moscow. In particular, EU High Representative Kaia Kallas emphasized that allowing the supply of Russian diesel fuel would provide the Kremlin with additional income to continue the war.<\/p>\n

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