{"id":1459287,"date":"2026-10-29T19:51:10","date_gmt":"2026-10-29T17:51:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/a-window-of-opportunity-for-the-kremlin-do-the-negotiations-have-a-chance-of-success\/"},"modified":"2026-10-29T19:51:10","modified_gmt":"2026-10-29T17:51:10","slug":"a-window-of-opportunity-for-the-kremlin-do-the-negotiations-have-a-chance-of-success","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/prm.ua\/en\/a-window-of-opportunity-for-the-kremlin-do-the-negotiations-have-a-chance-of-success\/","title":{"rendered":"A window of opportunity for the Kremlin: do the negotiations have a chance of success?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Putin’s phone calls with the leaders of Norway and Finland will not, in themselves, end the war in Ukraine. However, they may signal a shift in Europe’s approach to relations with Russia and the United States. And this is precisely what could affect the further course of peace negotiations.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The negotiation process to end the war is going through several stages. The peculiarity of the current one is that Donald Trump has set a specific goal – to sign a peace agreement on December 20 in Miami. At least, such plans were previously reported by Western media.<\/p>\n

Events in recent weeks indicate that Washington is trying to speed up negotiations and is increasing pressure on the parties.<\/p>\n

Hence the threats to completely lift sanctions against Russia, stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine, and disable Starlink.<\/p>\n

Ukraine is also responding to this pressure. In particular, it has stopped strikes on Russian oil refineries. At the same time, there is increasing public talk about the need for peace, even at the cost of difficult compromises.<\/p>\n

Zelensky’s speeches also hint that Ukraine may be left without the support of its allies. Therefore, Kyiv will place some responsibility for possible difficult decisions on its partners.<\/p>\n

Despite this, Ukraine’s official position has not changed yet. Kyiv considers the cessation of hostilities along the current front line to be the maximum compromise.<\/p>\n

The problem is that Putin has repeatedly rejected this option. And there is no reason to believe that this time he will agree without additional conditions.<\/p>\n

What changed in the negotiations?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Against this background, Ukraine prepared new proposals, which Steve Witkoff conveyed to Putin.<\/p>\n

We do not know their full content. However, the Kremlin has already stated that it saw “new aspects in the approaches” in the Ukrainian proposals and agreed to return to trilateral negotiations.<\/p>\n

According to Zelensky, Putin was offered to discuss security guarantees for Russia again.<\/p>\n

In fact, this is a return to negotiations that began back in 2021 after the Russian ultimatum to the West.<\/p>\n

At that time, Moscow demanded a revision of the European security system. Negotiations continued until February 24, 2022, when Putin decided to achieve his goals by military means, counting on the quick capture of Kyiv.<\/p>\n

Now the issue of security for all of Europe may once again become part of the negotiations to end the war.<\/p>\n

For Russia, this is an opportunity to return to discussing the demands that the Kremlin put forward even before the full-scale invasion.<\/p>\n

For Europe, it is a chance to agree on the future security system on the continent. After all, regardless of how the war ends, European countries will have to continue to live next to Russia.<\/p>\n

For Ukraine, this is another opportunity to try to end the war diplomatically.<\/p>\n

Is Putin ready for real negotiations?<\/strong><\/p>\n

It remains to be seen how seriously the Kremlin takes the current negotiation process. However, the upcoming meeting in Abu Dhabi should provide more answers.<\/p>\n

At the same time, it is hardly worth expecting the signing of a peace agreement on December 20.<\/p>\n

Even if Zelensky, Putin, and Trump meet in person, this will not mean that the parties will be able to reach an agreement. It is possible that instead of concrete decisions, we will again hear a long lecture from Putin about the history of Slavic peoples.<\/p>\n

But diplomacy rarely produces quick results.<\/p>\n

One successful round of negotiations may be preceded by dozens of unsuccessful ones. And even these are important because they allow the parties to take into account previous mistakes and understand the cost of failed agreements.<\/p>\n

Why time may work against the Kremlin<\/strong><\/p>\n

As before, the key decision on ending the war remains with Putin.<\/p>\n

If he hopes to use Trump to achieve Russian military and political goals, the current negotiating phase may be his last such chance.<\/p>\n

The political situation in the United States will change next year. After the elections, the composition of Congress will be renewed, and American politics will gradually enter a new electoral cycle.<\/p>\n

Under such conditions, Washington may have much less desire to waste time negotiating with Putin.<\/p>\n

And perhaps that is what those who still believe in the outcome of the current negotiations are counting on.<\/p>\n

The only question is whether the Kremlin is ready to take advantage of this opportunity, or whether it will again decide to wait for more favorable circumstances.<\/p>\n

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