A war of attrition: why strikes on Russian refineries are critical to Putin’s future
Ілюстративне фото: росЗМІ
Ukrainian drone strikes on key Russian oil refining infrastructure are dealing a significant blow to the Kremlin’s strategic sector of the economy. In recent weeks, drones have disabled a significant portion of oil refining capacity, causing a domestic fuel shortage and forcing Moscow to restrict exports.
This is stated in the Politico article.
The situation has escalated amid statements by Ukraine’s Western partners that economic pressure, along with targeted strikes, is considered the most effective way to force Russia to stop the war. As Politico reports, three senior European officials said that the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the rear are accompanied by a common strategic vision of the allies: sanctions + strikes = the path to negotiations.
While it remains difficult to accurately assess the extent of the damage, experts estimate that 15% to 20% of fuel production capacity is currently out of service. This has already been felt by residents of Russian regions, with queues forming at gas stations and the government temporarily halting gasoline exports.
Despite the fact that the attacks on the oil industry have been going on for over a year, their effect has become most noticeable now. Due to sanctions and a lack of imported equipment, the Russian Federation is facing difficulties in restoring facilities. Repairs are being delayed, and losses are accumulating.
According to British analyst and former British Army intelligence officer Philip Ingram, attacks on fuel infrastructure are not just tactics, but part of a clearly planned operation implemented by the head of the GUR, Kirill Budanov.
“Budanov has essentially reinterpreted the Allied experience of World War II, adapting it to modern warfare. The goal is to disrupt Russian logistics at the operational level: to make it more difficult to deliver people, equipment, and resources to the front,” Ingram explained.
He added that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy directly admitted that Ukraine cannot win only through tactical successes on the front line. “The one who controls the operational level wins. And this is exactly what Ukrainian intelligence is doing now,” the expert emphasized.
Despite the serious pressure, Ingram believes that the Russian economy is not yet in a state of collapse. However, he estimates that if the Ukrainian military’s attacks on Russian energy facilities continue and escalate, the Kremlin could face a critical crisis within 12 to 18 months – or even sooner.
As a reminder, Ukrainian drones continue to carry out targeted strikes on Russia’s strategic energy infrastructure. According to The Wall Street Journal, such attacks have knocked out about 13% of Russian oil refinery capacity.
As reported, despite the ongoing fuel crisis in Russia, Belarus is limiting gasoline supplies to a friendly regime.
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