Budanov’s forecast: is it realistic to end the war by the end of the year?

The forecast of the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kirill Budanov, about a possible ceasefire in 2025 will come true if the Kremlin sits down at the negotiating table, which is possible only in the event of a stalemate on the front or a crisis scenario within the Russian Federation.

This opinion was expressed on the air of “Pryamoy” by Ivan Stupak, a military analyst and employee of the SBU (2004-2015).

“There were indeed many predictions that we would be in Crimea in the summer, and the Russians had missiles left for 2-3 massive attacks in 2022. All of this was… But Budanov says that it is possible. He names several conditions for everyone to sit down at the negotiating table. It’s like the “Office of Simple Solutions”. Yes, it looks great, everyone should sit down and agree. But he didn’t say what to do if one side simply doesn’t want to sit down at the negotiating table,” Stupak noted.

At the same time, he recalled that currently Russian troops are gradually advancing deep into Ukraine, so they are not interested in ending the war there.

“In the Russian Federation, no matter how you look at it, even if they are minimal, even if they are microscopic, there are successes on the fronts. Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, Konstantinovka, Sumy, Lyman, Kupyansk – everywhere in the Russian Federation there are successes, albeit micro ones. Does this motivate the Russian side to stop? Of course not,” the military analyst added.

At the same time, he assumes that Russia will sit down at the negotiating table only if the situation on the front becomes a stalemate.

“Until the situation on the front becomes a stalemate, until the two sides are stuck together, and there is no going back or forward for at least two months, only then will the Russian Federation sit down at the negotiating table. Of course, there are external factors. The price of oil fell by $10 per barrel, the entire Russian government died at one point, everyone stood up and died – but these “black swans” are very fantastic,” explained former SBU employee Ivan Stupak.

Recall, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kirill Budanov, stated that a ceasefire on the Ukrainian-Russian front should be achieved in 2025. As he explained, a ceasefire requires the involvement of three parties – Ukraine, the United States, and Russia.

Meanwhile, Russian forces continue daily attacks on border areas of Sumy Oblast , using a wide arsenal of weapons, including drones, artillery, guided aerial bombs, and infantry assaults.

Meanwhile, the UN monitoring mission in June recorded the highest civilian casualties in three years . The Russians killed 232 people and wounded 1,343. It noted that virtually no region in Ukraine was safe, regardless of its distance from the front line.

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