“Budapest” Again: Why U.S. Security Guarantees Are Worth Less Than Paper

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We are told that if Donald Trump accepts Russian demands — even in a version edited by Washington — Ukraine will be offered security guarantees “similar to Article Five of the Washington Treaty.”

It must be stated with full responsibility that Article Five of the Washington Treaty — more precisely, the North Atlantic Treaty — like any other provision of this international agreement, applies exclusively within the framework of the treaty as a whole. In practical terms, it operates only in the context of full NATO membership.

For the same reason, Ukraine cannot rely on Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union, which obliges EU Member States to provide aid and assistance by all means in their power in the event of an armed attack on a Member State, in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter — at least until Ukraine becomes a member of the European Union.

Any analogous clause in bilateral agreements could be effective only if the U.S. Congress were to sign and ratify a Treaty of Alliance between Ukraine and the United States — one that explicitly provides for U.S. involvement in a war against an aggressor in the event of a threat to Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. Ukraine, in turn, would have to be prepared to assume reciprocal obligations.

Only such an arrangement would be meaningful. Everything else amounts to BUDAPEST 2.0 — an imitation of security guarantees. Ukraine cannot afford to step on the same rake again.

By way of reminder, in an interview on Pryamyi TV, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine, diplomat, and Chair of the Board of the Ukrainian Crisis Media Centre Valeriy Chaly explained why the current Western policy risks becoming destructive not only for Ukraine but for Europe as a whole — and why an “imitation of peace” is more dangerous than open war.

Ukraine stands at a crossroads: is the country moving toward long-awaited peace, or drifting into a worst-case scenario? While world leaders speak of progress in negotiations, the reality on the ground is far more complex — and fraught with far greater risks.

Why do official statements not correspond to reality, and what hidden traps await Ukraine in the negotiation process? Is Ukraine ready for new challenges when Putin is not going to stop, and his next steps may be directed at NATO territory? See this in an exclusive interview with Valery Chaly on the “Pryamiy” TV channel.

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