Seized Russian Vessels and Graham’s Law: The Myth of a Fast Peace

Source: Author’s Facebook page

Unfortunately, the U.S. game is not aimed at ending the war quickly — it is focused on the American elections in November. Trump lacks the leverage to force Putin into peace anytime soon, even if shifts in his strategy can still benefit Ukraine.

• Trump very publicly ordered the seizure of two ships directly linked to Russia. In other words, he raised the stakes, fully aware that Putin would not respond. And indeed, Putin remained silent.

• Apparently, someone in the White House managed to clarify a few key points for Trump. First, that Putin has been manipulating him. Second, continuing his previous approach would only hurt his ratings. And finally, Trump concluded that he needed to start applying real pressure on Putin. This creates a peculiar situation: if Putin is intimidated, Trump is hailed as the architect of peace in Europe; if Putin refuses to yield, Trump can claim he is doing everything possible against the Russian autocrat.

• Much of what is happening with Trump now is, in fact, the result of Venezuela’s bold stance.

• Trump has now switched from carrot to stick in dealing with Russia

• But this also means that a quick peace is unlikely. Putin will now retreat and wait — as he always does in such situations — even if some elites would like to accelerate the peace process.

5. Does Trump have any leverage to force Putin’s hand in the short term? Practically none. The most likely scenario is that, after applying some pressure, Trump will propose in a few months (or weeks?) that Putin return to the peace plan. How Putin responds will depend on the level of pressure from one side and the scope of proposals from the other. But no one is cancelling territorial claims or lifting sanctions.

Finally, Trump is deliberately leaving Chinese ships untouched. He will now focus his pressure on Russia, India, and possibly Brazil. With China, the situation is far more complicated. The White House logic is to begin negotiations with Beijing when, against Xi’s rare-earth card, Trump holds the oil and logistics cards. By April — the expected meeting between the U.S. and Chinese leaders — we may see a few more surprises.

It was previously reported that the United States conducted an operation to seize the Russian-flagged oil tanker Marinera, bound for Venezuela. It was later revealed that it belonged to a company linked to a businessman from occupied Crimea.

In addition, off the coast of the Turkish province of Kastamonu, a drone attacked the oil tanker Elbus, which was heading towards the Russian port of Novorossiysk. The strike damaged the upper part of the vessel, but according to preliminary data, the crew members were not injured.

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