China is facing a demographic catastrophe: how it threatens the global economy and Beijing’s position on the international stage

The biggest threat to China today is not U.S. policy, but a rapidly shrinking and aging population. China’s population has been declining since its peak of 1.4 billion in 2022.

This is reported by The Washington Post .

UN forecasts indicate that by 2050 the country’s population will decline to 1.26 billion, and by the end of the century it could drop to 633 million people, with more than half of the population being over 60 years old.

Analysts stress that an aging population and labor shortages could slow economic growth by about 0.5% each year over the next decade, posing a threat to Beijing’s ambitions to become a global superpower and undermining its position as a world manufacturing hub.

The demographic crisis is the result of decades of birth control policies. Since 1979, a “one-child” rule has been in place, enforced even through forced sterilizations and fines. After the restrictions were lifted in 2015, the government allowed couples to have two children, and from 2021, three, but the birth rate has continued to fall.

The journalists noted that in 1990, the median age of the population was 23.7 years, and the average woman gave birth to 2.5 children. By 2023, the median age had risen to 39 years, and the fertility rate had fallen to one child per woman.

Despite financial incentives, including subsidies of $500 per child per year, government programs to support parents have failed to deliver. The cost of raising a child in big cities like Shanghai is as high as $140,000, which is unaffordable for most families.

China, which for decades was the “factory of the world,” is now facing a labor shortage and a younger generation’s reluctance to work in manufacturing. Analysts say automation will help alleviate some of the problem, but it won’t make up for the shortage of people in the service sector.

It is worth adding that Ukraine has also faced a demographic catastrophe , with three deaths for every child born, which indicates a worsening demographic situation.

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