CIA and MI6 warned about Russian invasion: why Zelensky and Europe did not believe it

American and British intelligence received data on Russia’s preparations for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine back in 2021 and passed this information on to allies and Kyiv, but their warnings were rejected by most recipients. Despite detailed intelligence, neither Zelensky nor most European leaders took the necessary preparatory measures.

This is reported by The Guardian .

First signals: spring–autumn 2021

In the spring of 2021, Russian troops began building up forces along the borders of Ukraine and in occupied Crimea under the guise of exercises. US President Joe Biden called Putin to call for de-escalation and proposed a summit.

“He expressed concern about the troop buildup and called for de-escalation, and also suggested holding a summit in the coming months, which we knew Putin would be interested in,” said US Director of National Intelligence Avril Gaines.

After the two leaders met in Geneva in June 2021, the threat seemed to have been averted. However, just 4 weeks later, Putin published a lengthy essay in which he argued that “true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia.” In September 2021, the troop buildup along the borders resumed and reached a scale that was difficult to ignore.

November 2021: Allies’ warnings and skepticism in Brussels

In November 2021, US Director of National Intelligence Gaines spoke at the annual meeting of NATO intelligence chiefs in Brussels and expressed her belief that there was a real possibility of a massive invasion. The head of Britain’s MI6, Richard Moore, supported her.

However, the main reaction of those present was skepticism – some rejected the idea of an invasion altogether. In late October 2021, the CIA and MI6 sent memos to Kyiv with alarming intelligence assessments.

In mid-November, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace visited Kyiv and told Zelensky that London saw an invasion as a matter of “when,” not “if,” and urged preparations for war to begin. Zelensky, according to the publication, “listened passively.”

Zelensky’s position: fear of panic and distrust of the West

Zelensky did not believe in the possibility of a full-scale invasion. He feared that public statements about the threat would cause panic in the country, and he suspected that this was precisely Putin’s plan — to intimidate Ukraine and destabilize its economy.

“The British and Americans said it would happen. But the French and Germans told him, ‘Don’t listen to this, it’s all nonsense,’” said one senior Ukrainian official.

According to the publication, Zelensky was also convinced that the threat was exaggerated by the head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, through his contacts with Putin’s deputy chief of staff, Dmitry Kozak. At the same time, according to the CIA, Kozak himself did not know the details of Putin’s plan until the very end – only a handful of non-military officials were aware of them.

In November, Zelensky even sent one of his top officials through intelligence channels to the European capital with the message: “The fear of war is false and lies in the fact that the US is trying to put pressure on Russia.”

December 2021 — early 2022: details of the plan become known

By December 2021, the US and UK had received sufficient clarity about Russia’s war plan. According to data collected by Western services, Moscow believed that only 10% of Ukrainians would fight the invasion, while the rest would either support or accept the occupation.

In early January 2022, more specific details became known: an invasion from several directions, including Belarus, a landing of airborne forces at Gostomel airport near Kyiv, and an assassination attempt on Zelensky were planned. In addition, lists of “problematic” pro-Ukrainian figures for internment or execution and pro-Russian individuals for involvement in the governance of Ukraine were being prepared.

CIA Director William Burns flew to Kyiv to personally brief Zelensky, but the reaction was not what he had hoped for. Zelensky then recorded a video message to Ukrainians, urging them not to listen to those who predict conflict and assuring them that he “sincerely believes” that there will be no major war in 2022.

February 2022: The last days before the invasion

On February 12, 2022, after speaking with Putin, Biden told his aides that an invasion was imminent and could happen any day. That same month, Emmanuel Macron announced after 6 hours of talks in the Kremlin that he had “received guarantees” from Putin that there would be no escalation.

In the second half of February, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine intercepted a message from the commander of a Chechen unit in Belarus addressed to Ramzan Kadyrov, who reported that the unit was ready and would soon be in Kyiv. Zelensky was shown this recording, but, according to the publication, it did not convince him.

On February 22, 2022, Commander-in-Chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyy again tried to achieve the imposition of martial law to begin the redeployment of troops, but the National Security and Defense Council voted for a less significant measure — a state of emergency.

That same day, Security Council Chairman Oleksiy Danilov handed Zelensky a red folder with a top-secret report about a “direct physical threat” to the president — that groups of assassins were on their way. The next day, during a meeting with the presidents of Poland and Lithuania, Zelensky told them that this could be their last meeting where they would see him alive.

On February 21, 2022, at a meeting of the Russian Security Council, where Putin called on those present to support the “recognition” of the “LDPR”, the only one who dared to object was Kozak. He told the president that an invasion of Ukraine would be a disaster, after which he continued the discussion with Putin face to face.

Morning of February 24: The invasion began

At 4:50 a.m. on February 24, 2022, Putin announced the start of a “special military operation.” The French ambassador learned of the invasion when he was awakened by the sound of Russian missiles.

That same morning, Putin was hosting Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan at the Kremlin, whose visit had been planned in advance. When Khan asked about the war, Putin replied:

“Don’t worry about it. It’ll be over in a few weeks,” he said.

Consequences and lessons

Four years later, the war continues. An estimated 400,000 Russian soldiers have died. The CIA and MI6 were right about the invasion, but they failed to foresee that Russia would not be able to quickly take over Ukraine.

“We thought the Russians would be more effective at first — they would take Kyiv in a couple of weeks, and then the Ukrainians would regroup,” said Director of National Intelligence Gaines.

For European intelligence services, which failed to predict the invasion, it was a time of rethinking. One German official summed it up:

“The main conclusion we’ve drawn from all of this is that we need to work with worst-case scenarios much more than before,” he said.

Let us recall that the vast majority of Ukrainians believe that Ukraine has not done enough to prepare for the invasion , while the number of those who accuse the authorities of insufficient efforts is growing – these are the results of a survey published by KIIS.

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