Corruption, Cash, and the Frontlines: Ukraine’s Three Deadly Black Swans

Source: Author’s Facebook page

Today, it was reported that the European Commission is preparing Ukraine’s financing plan based on the assumption that the active phase of the war will end in 2026. I share this assessment and also believe that the active phase of the conflict will likely conclude in the second half of 2026.

It’s clear — the Russian economy is faltering. By December, the country is expected to face a budget deficit of 7–8 trillion rubles. This gap cannot be closed, even if the war were to stop today and all sanctions were lifted tomorrow.

This isn’t just my assessment. Official Russian data and independent economists alike confirm the economic stagnation and the looming budget shortfall.

A country cannot sustain a war while its economy is collapsing. Not even Putin can defy this basic reality.

In this sense, the Russian Federation is following a path similar to that of Kaiser Germany, which lost the First World War without a single enemy soldier on its territory but was exhausted economically, and also the USSR, which collapsed due to falling global oil prices, the arms race, and the war in Afghanistan, all of which crippled its economy.

Today, Russia is weaker than both the USSR and Kaiser Germany.

However, we face our own challenges. Three “black swans” are circling over Ukraine.

The first is corruption scandals. They demoralize society and the army, erode trust in the authorities, and give our enemies powerful tools to destabilize the country from within. And we have brought this “black swan” upon ourselves — our own elite has plundered the nation.

The second black swan is closely linked to the first. Our economy is struggling and remains entirely dependent on foreign aid. What compromising information might emerge tomorrow? And what if it is so damaging that calls to disconnect us from the “ventilator” grow even louder — and are actually heeded?

The third black swan is the front and the shelling of the rear. Russia is now exhausting every last resource it has, attempting to achieve military success, much like Germany did in the first half of 1918. Demoralization, weakened morale caused by corruption, and internal strife all work to the enemy’s advantage.

I am not making specific frontline predictions, but the war is likely to reach a critical point this winter.

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