“Daggers”, “Geraniums” and FABs: Russia is preparing strikes on 60 Ukrainian energy facilities

“Scheme” journalists received a copy of the document from sources in the Ukrainian Defense Forces and compared it with real Russian attacks.

This is an analytical report ” Analysis of Energy Generation and Housing and Utilities of Ukraine” , dated August 2026. It contains calculations regarding the number of missiles, drones, and aerial bombs needed for large-scale destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure.

The main targets are named Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odessa . In total, the document mentions 60 key facilities — hydroelectric power plants, nuclear power plants, thermal power plants, CHP plants, substations, interconnectors, boiler houses, pumping and treatment facilities.

What does the Russian document contain?

The authors of the reference are not indicated in the copy, and the file metadata has been changed. At the same time, the sources of information mentioned include OpenStreetMap, Worldometers, the official websites of “Ukrenergo”, “Ukrhydroenergo”, “Kyivteploenergo”, the Ministry of Energy, and DTEK.

According to “Schemes”, the received document is probably incomplete, but its fragments allow us to understand the approach of the Russian side.

The document identifies four ” priority goals” : electricity generation and supply, water supply, sewage, and heat.

Among the first targets are energy “hubs” in western Ukraine, through which electricity is imported from Europe, ten large hydroelectric power plants, as well as the South Ukrainian, Rivne, and Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plants.

How many weapons is the Russian Federation laying?

The document mentions 770 Molniya and Geran drones and Dan-T/Banderol drone missiles, 170 FABs , and 75 Kinzhal and Iskander-M ballistic missiles.

A separate calculation is provided for each facility. For example, for an open switchgear of a nuclear power plant, two Iskanders are indicated, for a hydroelectric power plant – up to 25 drones or three Kinzhals, for a thermal power plant – up to 25 drones, three Kinzhals, as well as about 25 FAB-500s and five Iskander-Ms.

For substations and interconnectors, 15 drones or three “Daggers” are provided, for housing and communal services facilities – 25 FABs or five “Iskanders”, for boiler rooms – 20 “Geraniums” or “Dan-T/Banderoles”.

Separately, the authors of the document note that strikes on boiler rooms near residential areas could lead to civilian casualties .

Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa

The report pays special attention to Kyiv. The authors point to five substations of the “Kyiv Ring” as weak points of the capital’s power system.

According to calculations, the destruction of 12 key substations in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odessa would allegedly allow up to 90% of the power supply to these cities to be cut off. For this purpose, the document provides for 40–50 Molniya and 130–140 Geraniya-4 or Dan-T/Banderola.

Experts: This is not a ready-made attack plan

Director of the Center for Energy Research Oleksandr Kharchenko noted that similar Russian documents have been appearing since at least 2023. In his opinion, the current certificate is not a combat order, but rather demonstrates the concept of damaging Ukrainian critical infrastructure.

Another source from the military-industrial complex also believes that the document is a calculation for determining the need for weapons and planning their production. The final strike plan, he said, should contain a specific distribution of weapons and dates for operations.

Russia is systematically attacking Ukrainian energy

According to the Prosecutor General’s Office, 3,374 Russian strikes on 1,177 Ukrainian energy facilities have been investigated since the start of the full-scale invasion.

One of the largest attacks occurred on the night of September 30, 2026. Russian forces used hundreds of strike drones and ballistic missiles. Five civilians were killed, including a child, and emergency shutdowns were imposed in a number of regions.

Journalists established that at least three facilities attacked that night — two Kyiv CHPs and one CHP in the Kyiv region — were listed in the Russian certificate.

According to “Schemes”, it was this document that Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal demonstrated to European partners in Paris on September 17. He stated that it detailed the number and types of weapons to destroy specific objects.

At the same time, “Scheme”‘s interlocutors among high-ranking EU officials consider the document to be generally realistic, although they call for caution in its interpretation.

The GUR confirmed that they generally share the assessments of the Ukrainian military-political leadership regarding the Russian Federation’s intentions to continue strikes on critical infrastructure. Ukrhydroenergo stated that detailed information about the protection of facilities is confidential.

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