Democrats ahead of Republicans ahead of US midterm elections: current ratings

The United States will hold midterm elections to determine the composition of the House of Representatives and parts of the Senate on November 3, 2026. As of October 31, national polls show Democrats leading Republicans, but the parties’ chances of gaining control of each chamber vary.

This is evidenced by RealClearPolling data.

The U.S. midterm elections are coming up on Tuesday, November 3. Americans will vote for all members of the House of Representatives and a portion of the Senate. The results will determine which party will have the majority in the country’s legislature for the next 2 years.

As of October 31, national polls show a Democratic lead. However, the figures vary depending on the research organization, the date of the poll, and the methodology.

Party ratings as of October 31

RealClearPolling . According to a national average of polls reported by Al Jazeera on October 31, Democrats have 51.4% support, while Republicans have 43.2%. The difference is 8.2 percentage points. This is an aggregate measure that combines the results of multiple surveys, not the result of a single poll.

Emerson College Polling . The results of the poll, conducted Oct. 24-26 among 1,000 likely voters, were released Oct. 30. The Democratic candidates received 52% support, the Republicans – 42%. The survey’s margin of error is approximately 3 percentage points. According to the poll, President Donald Trump’s job approval rating among likely voters was 37%, while disapproval was 57%.

The Economist/YouGov . According to a poll released on October 29 and reported by Al Jazeera on October 31, 44% of registered voters expected Democrats to control the House of Representatives after the election. At the same time, 31% believed that Republicans would retain control. For the Senate, the predictions were closer: 39% expected a Democratic majority, and 36% – Republicans. These figures reflect respondents’ expectations of the outcome, not their intention to vote for a specific party.

New York Magazine / Intelligencer. In an October 30 article , the publication cited several analytical models’ predictions for the future composition of Congress. According to Silver Bulletin, the probability that Democrats will gain control of the House of Representatives was 95.1%. Race to the White House estimated it at 93.9%, and Decision Desk HQ estimated it at 82%. These figures are probability forecasts, not voter support ratings.

Parties’ chances in Congress

The Democrats’ advantage in national polls suggests they have a more favorable situation in the race for the House of Representatives. At the same time, the outcome of the Senate elections remains less certain, as the results in individual states are crucial.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said the Democrats’ significant lead in national polls in the House of Representatives suggests the party has a good chance of winning a majority. However, he noted that this does not automatically mean a change in control of the Senate.

The Senate projections remain less clear. The Silver Bulletin model had Democrats taking control of the chamber at 77.7%, Race to the White House at 77.4%, and Decision Desk HQ at 62%. These are projections as of press time and are subject to change based on new data.

Could the results change?

National polls do not accurately predict the distribution of seats in Congress. In the House of Representatives, the outcome depends on the votes in individual districts, and in the Senate – on the results of elections in states where parties are fighting for specific seats.

In addition, early voting was already underway in the United States as of October 31. According to an Associated Press analysis, more than 43 million Americans had already voted in person or mailed in ballots. However, the number of votes cast does not indicate who voters actually voted for and does not determine the final outcome.

Thus, as of October 31, Democrats are ahead of Republicans in national polls , and several analytical models predict a strong chance for the Democratic Party to win a majority in the House of Representatives. At the same time, the fight for the Senate remains less predictable, and the final distribution of seats will become known after the vote is counted.

Recall that a week before the midterm elections for the US Congress , 54% of Americans believe that President Donald Trump has committed offenses that could be grounds for impeachment.

As reported, the level of negative attitude of Americans towards US President Donald Trump continues to grow . The difference between positive and negative assessments of his activities has reached minus 19.8 percentage points. At the same time, the Polymarket platform estimates the Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate elections at 67%.

In addition, American voters are increasingly concerned about possible ethical violations in the administration of President Donald Trump . Discontent is growing against the backdrop of the rising cost of living and an unpopular war with Iran.

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