Democrats may gain majority in both houses of Congress: how the US elections will affect Ukraine

MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak has released predictions for the upcoming US Congressional elections, in which the Democratic Party may gain a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate. In his opinion, this will strengthen Congressional control over the Donald Trump administration and may accelerate decisions on supporting Ukraine.

He wrote about this in Telegram .

According to Zheleznyak, the upcoming US congressional elections have effectively turned into a referendum on the performance of President Donald Trump. He cited data from aggregator Nate Silver, according to which 37.5% of Americans approve of the president’s performance, while 59.9% disapprove. The difference between the indicators is minus 22.5 points.

Zheleznyak cited inflation, economic policy, trade tariffs, and the war with Iran as the main factors of American discontent. According to the data he provided, in a national poll on party preference in the elections, Democrats are ahead of Republicans by 9.6 points: 51.3% versus 41.6%.

According to Silver’s model, Democrats have a 93% chance of winning the House of Representatives and a 74% chance of winning the Senate. Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket estimate Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate at 63-65% and 90%, respectively, for the House of Representatives.

House of Representatives Predictions

There are currently 218 Republicans and 214 Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives. According to Silver’s model, Democrats could gain an average of 239 seats, while Decision Desk HQ’s projection predicts 235 seats for them.

Zhelezniak predicts that Democrats will win between 232 and 238 seats. In that case, Democrat Hakeem Jeffries could become Speaker of the House of Representatives.

At the same time, the election results could be affected by the redistricting of several states in favor of Republicans. According to the deputy’s estimate, to gain a majority in the House of Representatives, Democrats need to outstrip Republicans by about 3-4 points in total votes.

The fight for the Senate

Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate to Democrats’ 47. To gain control of the chamber, Democrats need to gain at least 4 additional seats, as in a tie, the deciding vote goes to US Vice President J.D. Vance.

Among the states where Democrats have a chance of winning, Zheleznyak named:

According to Zheleznyak’s forecast, Cooper, Brown and Jackson could win, while the outcome of the Texas race remains uncertain. Kansas, he believes, is most likely to remain with the Republicans. Overall, the Democrats are predicted to hold 51-52 seats in the Senate.

How could the election results affect Ukraine?

Zheleznyak noted that a Democratic victory in both houses of Congress could strengthen political support for Ukraine. He cited a statement by Jim Hymes, the senior Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, who said on October 13 in Warsaw that if the Democrats win, aid packages to Ukraine could be passed much faster – “in 9 days or a maximum of 9 weeks, not 9 months.”

At the same time, the deputy noted that a change in the majority in Congress does not guarantee an automatic increase in aid to Ukraine. Many laws require 60 votes to pass in the Senate, so Democrats will have to enlist the support of some Republicans.

In addition, decisions on the supply of American weapons under the PURL mechanism, under which European countries finance purchases for Ukraine, depend on the presidential administration. Trump himself will remain in office until January 2029, and foreign policy is within the powers of his administration.

According to Zheleznyak, if Congress takes control of the Democrats in January, oversight of the Trump administration will increase. This could mean more active parliamentary hearings, inquiries, budget restrictions, and the advancement of bills on sanctions against Russia.

At the same time, according to the deputy, the change in the mood of American voters is primarily related to domestic economic problems and the situation in the Middle East, and not to the war in Ukraine. Therefore, Kyiv, in his opinion, should take the opportunity to strengthen cooperation with Congress in the event of a Democratic victory.