Dollar exchange rate to UAH 51.5 and increase in minimum wage: what the new Budget Declaration foresees

The government presented the Budget Declaration for 2027–2029, which envisages two scenarios for the development of events depending on the course of the war.

Thisis reported by RBC-Ukraine with reference to the Telegram of the People’s Deputy from the Servant of the People party, Olga Vasilevska-Smaglyuk.

The budget declaration envisages two scenarios: the end of the war and its continuation.

In the scenario assuming the end of the war, inflation in 2027 will be 8.9%, and the dollar exchange rate at the end of the year is expected to be at 48.3 UAH.

In addition, the Ministry of Finance has identified key areas of the Budget Declaration for 2027–2029.

The greatest attention is planned to be paid to maintaining social support for citizens, raising social standards, and preparing for new challenges in the process of restoring the country.

It is also planned to preserve social programs, including funding for screening programs, student nutrition, teacher salaries, and demographic development measures.

An increase in the minimum wage is also planned:

• • in 2027 — by 10.4%;

• • in 2028 — by 8.7%;

• • in 2029 – by 7.1%.

The subsistence minimum is forecast to increase:

• • in 2027 – by 10.9%;

• • in 2028 — by 8.9%;

• • in 2029 – by 7.1%.

According to Prime Minister Yulia Svirydenko, the government is also discussing wage reform.

The government predicts that even under the most optimistic scenario, the dollar exchange rate will gradually increase — from UAH 44.4 in 2026 to UAH 50.7 in 2029.

By the end of 2029, the dollar, according to the government’s forecast, will cost 51.5 UAH.

Ukraine also plans to increase borrowing volumes next year.

Public debt at the end of 2026 is projected at 106.1% of GDP, and in 2027 — 113% of GDP.

In 2027, Ukraine’s need for international assistance will amount to UAH 2 trillion 134.5 billion.

Provided that hostilities end, the government predicts a gradual reduction in the budget deficit:

• • 18.5% of GDP in 2026;

• • 17.7% of GDP in 2027;

• • 11.1% of GDP in 2028;

• • 5.5% of GDP in 2029.

In particular, Svyrydenko also stated that the additional payment of 10,000 hryvnias for logistics specialists in the army is planned to be maintained next year.

If the fighting ends, the government predicts gradual economic growth.

Real GDP is forecast to grow:

• • in 2026 – by 2.6%;

• • in 2027 – by 4.5%;

• • in 2028 — by 5.3%;

• • in 2029 – by 6.7%.

Nominal GDP over this period should grow from UAH 10.1 trillion in 2026 to almost UAH 15 trillion in 2029.