Donald Trump’s Illogical Logic

Source: Author’s Facebook page.

All that we see now may be strategic chaos. And yet, in this chaos, we can distinguish a number of relatively logical chains that were hardly a strategy at first, but now can turn into a kind of not quite logical, but strategy.

The war in Iran (and it all starts with it) implied, in the US understanding, that the assassination of Khamenei and the Iranian leadership would lead to a repeat of the Venezuelan scenario. The regime would fall, and the US would begin to control Iranian oil and gas, putting China in an extremely difficult situation of dependence on US control not only over world oil (let me remind you, sanctions were imposed against Rosneft and Lukoil at the same time), but it would also mean that the US would have almost sole control over Orumuz, the Panama and Suez Canals, with all the corresponding consequences for Chinese trade.

De facto, the defeat of the US at this stage of the war with Iran puts an end to this logic of US actions and simultaneously blocks large volumes of Persian Gulf oil, pushing oil prices up.

There are three major hydrocarbon producers in the world – the USA, Russia and the Persian Gulf countries. When all three are operating at full capacity, energy prices fall (there is a surplus). Excluding (limiting) two players makes prices skyrocket and leads to a decrease in oil consumption. Excluding (limiting) one of the players allows you to keep prices at a high, but not critical, level.

Now the situation is such that the US cannot release Middle Eastern oil (read paragraph 1). Therefore, it seems that the idea arose to return to the first draft of Dmitriev’s plan a year ago. The essence of this plan then was as follows: Russia grants the US the right to become a kind of intermediary in the trade of sanctioned goods in the EU and beyond. Plus, it launches the US into some projects in the North.

In exchange, the US is seeking the lifting of sanctions against Russia by the EU (the controlling package of sanctions, after all, belongs to Europe). In return, Trump must provide Europe with security guarantees.

From the US perspective, the essence of this combination, as far as we can judge, comes down to a few things:

• The US is helping Russia and Russia is jumping out of Chinese technological and financial dependence;
• Europeans will be forced to remain in the path of the United States as the main guarantor of security;
• Even in theory, the EU will not be able to balance between the US and China.

This whole plan looks good on paper, but of course it will face a number of difficulties in implementation. The modern world is governed not only by economic and geopolitical logic, it contains a very large proportion of everything that Trump and Putin do not understand (democracy, human rights, horizontal connections, subjectivity of the masses, technology, morality…). Therefore, this plan will definitely have problems with implementation. Especially in the USA.

I have to repeat what I wrote earlier: Europe will wait for the results of the Senate elections. The Russians believe that they have a he-he situation. If it works out, fine. If it doesn’t work out, there is a long window of opportunity for almost unpunished strikes on the Ukrainian economy. Ukraine has also decided to wait for November 3. But we must remember that November 3, 2026 is a conditional date. Because almost two months will pass before the first meeting of the Senate. And Trump is clearly not ready to stop his activity.

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