Scandinavian Skies on Edge: Russia Pushes NATO to the Limit

On the night of September 23, 2025, Copenhagen Airport was closed for nearly four hours due to the appearance of large, unidentified drones on its territory. Oslo Airport, the Norwegian capital, was also closed for the same reason.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has not ruled out Russia’s involvement in the drone incident near Copenhagen Airport. She also stated that the incident constituted a “serious attack on Denmark’s critical infrastructure.”

Notably, on the same day, September 23, the North Atlantic Council met at Estonia’s request under Article 4 of the Washington Treaty to discuss and strongly condemn Russia’s dangerous violation of Estonian airspace.

As a reminder, on September 19, Russian fighter jets violated Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland and remained there for a total of 12 minutes. NATO reported intercepting the aircraft.

This indicates that the Russian Federation is exerting complex pressure on NATO countries, aiming to achieve multiple objectives simultaneously.

The country’s political leadership has made it clear that it is essentially offering not to deploy Russian troops into NATO territory (Poland and the Baltic states) in exchange for pressure on Ukraine’s leadership to make territorial concessions.

It is worth noting that Russia initially proposed exchanging Ukraine’s Kharkiv and Sumy regions for Donetsk. Ukraine rejected the offer. Russia has now escalated tensions directly against NATO countries.

Other Russian provocations are also aimed at stirring military hysteria along NATO borders, particularly in newer member states.

This includes the construction of military bases near the Finnish border, specifically in Kandalaksha and Petrozavodsk, as well as territorial claims against Sweden over the island of Gotland. Gotland is a key part of the Baltic Sea, and control over it ensures free navigation. Any attempt by Russia to resolve this issue militarily would indicate a bid to control the Baltic Sea.

It should be emphasized that Russian provocations need to be considered in a broader context, not just as cases of navigation jamming, although these are also demonstrative.

Incidentally, the choice of aircraft is no accident. They make it clear that the presence of officials is not a warning to the Russian side. In other words, they seem prepared to take extreme measures in the face of military pressure on Western countries.

I note: the West’s reaction to such incidents is not fragile. This is an absolutely false assertion, promoted by the Russians to create an atmosphere of instability in Western countries.

The occupiers are promoting two theses. The first is the population’s unwillingness to defend their own states. The second is the unwillingness of Western countries to implement Article 5 of the NATO Charter on collective security. This primarily concerns the Baltic States.

At the same time, they are promoting the thesis of possible territorial concessions by NATO countries during the occupation of the Baltic countries.

Russia, attempting to destabilize the situation in NATO countries through direct acts of sabotage and destabilization funded by pro-Russian political parties, will receive a harsh and adequate response from the West.

Let’s mention the actions of the United States. For the first time since 2008, the US returned its nuclear arsenal to UK territory. Furthermore, NATO countries have completely changed their concept of countering potential Russian aggression. Previously, they talked about so-called deterrence, requiring a certain period of time to deploy NATO troops and allowing for the possibility of occupying certain territories. Now, the emphasis is on directly repelling potential military aggression. In other words, they are not giving up a single meter to the Russian occupiers.

On September 22, the new US Permanent Representative to the UN, Mike Waltz, assured that Washington would persistently defend the security of NATO member countries and protect “every centimeter” of their territories in the face of recent provocations.

In addition, NATO has deployed additional military contingents to Estonia and Lithuania and is conducting joint exercises involving both naval and land forces.

Specifically, the Polish Ministry of Defense announced plans to increase troop numbers along the border with Belarus by several thousand to deter potential aggression. Approximately 10,000 soldiers will be stationed there: 4,000 to directly support the Border Guard and 6,000 in reserve.

Poland has also been actively redeploying heavy armored vehicles, including Abrams tanks received from South Korea. These have been assigned to the 15th Zawisza Czerny Mechanized Brigade of the 16th King Kazimierz Jagiellończyk Pomeranian Mechanized Division, based in Giżycko near the border with the Kaliningrad Oblast, as well as to the 9th Braniewo unit.

Earlier, Polish Minister of National Defense Mariusz Błaszczak announced the creation of a new engineer battalion in the region this year, as part of the 15th Mechanized Brigade of the 16th Mechanized Division.

Additionally, units from the US 66th Tank Regiment, the French 7th Tank Brigade and 152nd Infantry Regiment, the Swedish Jeta Engineer Regiment, and Polish forces are concentrated near Łomża, Poland, forming a combined force of approximately 6,000 troops.

It is also worth noting Poland’s significant defense commitment—it is currently the only NATO country spending more than 4% of its GDP on defense.

This reflects a major modernization of the Polish Army and enhanced engineering and fortification work along the border with Belarus. The same efforts are underway in the Baltic states. Notably, both the Baltic States and Poland have announced their withdrawal from the Ottawa Convention on the Prohibition of Anti-Personnel Mines, and measures are being implemented to mine potential entry points for Russian forces.

We should not focus solely on military exercises in the Baltic States or Poland. There is also the redeployment of air defense systems to potential conflict zones with Russia in Romania, Poland, and the Baltic States. A unified air defense network is being established to counter Russian threats.

During a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, US President Donald Trump told reporters that NATO should shoot down Russian aircraft that violate its airspace.

Earlier, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that the Alliance intends to make decisions on the use of force against aircraft or drones violating its airspace based on intelligence regarding the threat level they pose.

Another key element of the West’s response is the initiative by the United States and European partners to supply weapons to Ukraine, including systems capable of striking Russian territory.

These include 3,300 American ERAM missiles, as well as decisions by European countries to transfer Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles. Russia’s claims that the West has failed to respond adequately are therefore unfounded—the Western response is more than sufficient.

The latest decisions on military-technical cooperation with Ukraine, following the “Coalition of the Resolute” meeting in Paris, further underscore this commitment.

The modernization of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the deployment of weapons production, air defense systems, and armaments directly on Ukrainian territory represents a comprehensive effort. This is complemented by military-technical and macroeconomic support, underscoring the scale and significance of the initiative.

Denmark has announced the transfer of six Patriot air defense missile systems to Ukraine, valued at €8.5 billion. Germany has increased its military-technical assistance from €4 billion to €9 billion, while Norway and several other countries have made similar commitments.

These measures demonstrate a shared understanding of the challenges facing the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They also show that the West recognizes the potential consequences if hostilities were to intensify or spill over into European territory.

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