EBRD lowers Ukraine’s economic growth forecast for 2025

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has adjusted its forecast for the growth rate of Ukraine’s economy in 2025 — the expected GDP growth has been reduced to 2.5%, while the previous forecast was 3.3%.

This is stated in a new economic report by the EBRD.

The reason for the revision is the high level of uncertainty related to Russia’s ongoing aggression, the situation in the energy sector, and dependence on external support.

The EBRD notes that despite moderate GDP growth of 0.9% in the first quarter of 2025, economic development is limited by several critical factors:

labor shortage due to mobilization and emigration;

damage to energy infrastructure — consequences of Russian attacks;

Weak exports of agricultural products — a decrease in external supplies.

The forecast for 2026 remains unchanged: +5% to GDP — provided that a ceasefire is established and post-war reconstruction begins actively. This factor, according to analysts, could become the engine of an economic leap.

The current account deficit increased by almost 50% in January–July due to high spending on defense and energy.

The budget deficit in 2025 is projected at 22% of GDP.

It is expected that more than $40 billion will come from abroad — in particular, from the EU, the G7 countries (including through proceeds from frozen Russian assets), as well as the IMF.

Inflation is gradually decreasing: from 15.9% in May to 13.2% in August.

The discount rate has been at 15.5% since March — the NBU is trying to contain prices.

International reserves reached $46 billion in August, which allows covering 5.5 months of imports and maintaining a stable hryvnia exchange rate.

The Ukrainian economy is showing resilience, but its development still depends on external factors: the course of the war, support from partners, and the pace of recovery. The EBRD emphasizes that the future remains uncertain, but the potential for growth remains.

As a reminder, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has approved the draft state budget for 2026 and is submitting it for consideration to the Verkhovna Rada.

As reported, the total amount of expenditures included in the draft state budget for 2026 will amount to 4.8 trillion hryvnias, which is more than 3 times higher than the expenditures of the Ukrainian budget before the full-scale invasion.

By the way, the European Union is preparing to provide Ukraine with a “repatriation loan,” the amount of which could reach 130 billion euros.

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