From Diplomacy to Deterrence: Europe’s New Course After the Hague

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For months, the future felt suspended in a thick, unyielding fog — directionless, unstable, uncertain. All eyes turned to the Hague Summit in search of clarity. And now, whether we’re ready for it or not, that clarity has come.

What does 5% of the GDP of European NATO countries spent on defense mean?

It means $1.2 trillion annually — twice the average U.S. defense spending during the Cold War, adjusted for inflation.

The conclusion first: is that Europe is preparing for a large-scale war.
And the prospect of NATO membership for Ukraine has not disappeared.

Conclusion second: Ukraine will become a member of NATO the day after a united Europe is directly attacked.

European armed forces are fully integrated within NATO’s military structure.
There is no separatism — even as Article 5 is being publicly questioned by the U.S. President.

This means NATO can now operate under different leadership in different theaters.
Most likely, the United States will relinquish its lead in NATO’s European command, just as the EU will avoid deep involvement in events in the South China Sea.
NATO is no longer the United States’ global military tool.

And this shift is irreversible.

President Macron is also right: you can’t build collective security while fighting trade wars.
Tariff conflicts must be resolved shortly.
The instinct to “grab a bigger piece” from Europe, simply because you can — has failed.
Instead, we need to calmly negotiate a new international trade order.

What struck me most at the summit was the clear-eyed realism of Finnish President Alexander Stubb:
NATO is being reborn to respond to the very threat it was created to contain — Russia.

On the one hand, this is good news for Ukraine:
It opens the door to building a stronger, more secure state and defending its territory.
On the other hand, it delivers a final verdict on all illusions about a quick return to pre-war life.

As a reminder, one of the most anticipated NATO summits ended in The Hague, Netherlands, on June 25. This meeting was the first since Donald Trump returned to the White House and, despite concerns about the US position, ended with a powerful political signal in support of Ukraine and a significant revision of the Alliance’s defense policy.

In the final document adopted by the leaders of NATO member states, Russia is directly called a “long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security,” and the defense of Ukraine is part of the security of the Alliance itself.

In addition, on June 25, on the sidelines of the NATO summit in The Hague, a lengthy meeting took place between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and US President Donald Trump. Although the parties voiced different views on the content of the talks, both presidents called the meeting productive and important.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump changed his rhetoric towards Volodymyr Zelenskyy after their meeting at the NATO summit in The Hague. He also took a tougher stance towards Vladimir Putin, expressing disappointment at his unwillingness to end the war.

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