Every step makes the situation worse: how Putin found himself in a strategic “zugzwang” in the war against Ukraine

Russia, in its fifth year of a full-scale war against Ukraine, has found itself in a state of strategic “zugzwang,” where any further decision worsens its situation. Analysts believe the war has taken on the characteristics of a positional confrontation with heavy losses and minimal territorial gains.

This is reported by The Washington Post .

As the publication notes, the war launched by Vladimir Putin against Ukraine, which the Kremlin initially positioned as a quick “special military operation”, did not achieve its goals and entered a phase of prolonged, exhausting confrontation.

According to journalists, in 2026, Russian troops were able to capture only about 0.04% of Ukraine’s territory . At the same time, in some months, the Russian army lost previously occupied positions.

The publication also cites estimates by The Economist, according to which, over more than 4 years of hostilities, Russia’s losses among military personnel, including those killed and wounded, reached about 3% of the country’s pre-war mobilization resource.

Separately, journalists cite estimates from The Wall Street Journal, according to which a significant part of the Russian army personnel consists of poorly trained mobilized soldiers who are quickly sent to the front.

The article notes that modern warfare increasingly resembles the positional confrontation of the First World War , when minor advances are accompanied by significant losses of manpower.

According to journalists, Ukraine’s active use of drones has created so-called “no-go zones” up to 30 km deep, which significantly limits the movement of Russian units, complicates logistics, and increases the risk of losses.

The publication also notes that due to the threat of strikes by Ukrainian drones, attacks are being recorded even near Moscow, and Vladimir Putin is increasingly forced to stay in shelters .

In addition, journalists emphasize that the war has already led to the strengthening of NATO and changed the security architecture of Europe.

Analysts characterize the current state of Russia as a “negative equilibrium” – a situation in which the state formally maintains stability, but gradually exhausts its own resources and potential.

Former Russian officials and military analysts cited by the publication believe that the war has entered a phase of strategic “zugzwang,” when no decision by the Kremlin brings any advantage but only increases Russia’s long-term losses.

By the way, Ukraine was able to change the situation in the war thanks to the increase in the production of drones and their constant use. Now Kyiv is not only restraining the enemy at the front, but also transferring the war to the territory of the Russian Federation , delivering long-range strikes.

At the same time, the threats of the Russian leadership to strike Kyiv and demands for diplomats to leave the capital indicate a deep systemic crisis within the leadership of the aggressor country, the Russian Federation , which arose due to the inability to achieve the goals set on the battlefield.

Recall that in Russian government circles, statements began to be heard about the need to stop hostilities against Ukraine . The main incentive for such talks was the rapid deterioration of the aggressor country’s economy. Thus, the Russian budget deficit has approached the mark of 6 trillion rubles, which forces the government to look for ways to radically reduce spending.

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