From checkpoints to NATO airspace: how Russia is testing Europe
Фото:
Russia is increasingly posing threats near the borders of Ukraine and neighboring countries. ISW believes that a series of such incidents may be part of a broader Kremlin campaign aimed at testing the reaction of European states and gradually getting used to violations of their airspace.
This is stated in a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
On the night of September 24, Russian drones attacked western Ukraine. According to ISW, four drones flew over Bukovina towards checkpoints on the border with Moldova and Romania. Three of them were shot down by Ukrainian forces, while another continued towards the Romanian county of Suceava.
At the same time, Russian drones were in the airspace of neighboring states. In Moldova, a Gerbera drone crashed near the settlement of Chernitsa. In Romania, an unknown aircraft was in the airspace for about four minutes, after which it crashed near Solca. Geolocation of the wreckage indicated that it was a Russian Gerbera.
In Poland, amid the Russian attack, people were temporarily evacuated from two border checkpoints — Zosin and Dorohusk. The security measures lasted about 30 minutes and were preventive.
ISW notes that even in cases where drones cross borders unintentionally, such incidents can be beneficial to the Kremlin. According to analysts, regular violations of the airspace of Moldova and NATO countries gradually normalize such incidents, forcing neighboring states to spend resources on response and testing the readiness of their air defenses.
Analysts also point to other recent incidents in Europe that they believe fit into a broader pattern of Russian provocations. At the same time, European authorities have not yet established Russian involvement in some of these cases.
Recall, on the night of Tuesday, September 15, NATO fighters destroyed a drone that violated Lithuanian airspace . The drone entered the country’s territory from the side of Belarus.
As previously reported, Russia may use its drone flights over Moldova and NATO countries to test their air defenses and respond to border violations. A particular threat is posed by jet drones, which leave Ukraine’s neighboring countries with significantly less time to react.
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