From “Shaheds” to Ballistics: How Moscow and Tehran’s Military Partnership Threatens Ukraine and the World

On February 28, the United States and Israel launched a large-scale military campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran. In response, Tehran launched massive ballistic missile and suicide drone strikes against American bases and territories of US-allied countries in the Middle East, including Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE.

White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt dubbed entire operations “Epic Fury.” These included destroying Iran’s missile arsenal and naval forces, disrupting the regime’s terrorist networks, and ensuring Iran never acquires nuclear weapons.

It should be noted that the US operation against Iran has more than just a regional dimension. It has a direct impact on the configuration of the war in Ukraine, Russian military capabilities, and the global balance of air defense systems.

The reason is simple: Iran has become one of Russia’s key military-technological donors since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Iranian case has become highly relevant for our country. The issue is that Russian occupiers are massively using kamikaze drones in strikes against Ukraine, which experts identify as Iranian “Shahed-136” and “Mohajer-6.”

In early July 2022, the Russian dictator held talks with the Iranian leadership in Tehran.  New York Times  then reported, citing American officials, that Iran was planning to supply Russia with 300 drones, and was already planning to train Russian military personnel to use them.  in July. 

On October 21, 2022, the Security Service of Ukraine opened a criminal investigation into the supply of Iranian Shahed-136 and Mohajer-6 drones, as well as Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar short-range ballistic missiles, to Russia.

According to Western intelligence agencies, arms and technology supplies to Russia from Iran, prior to the overthrow of the Assad regime, were carried out from the Syrian port of Tartus. Considering that  Turkey has banned military ships from transiting the Bosphorus and Dardanelles. Supplies are being carried out by civilian vessels of Oboronlogistics LLC, a company subordinate to the Russian Ministry of Defense. A US official stated that the US government believes Russia used merchant vessels to transport military supplies through the Black Sea, echoing European intelligence reports.

Please note that in May 2022, the Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Armed Forces, General Mohammad Bagheri, attended the opening of the Ababil-2 drone production plant in Tajikistan.

Until recently, the production of Iranian drones for the occupying country’s needs was located in Syria and Tajikistan. They were effectively handled by IRGC specialists, and transportation to Russia took place from Syrian ports. This allowed Iran’s secular authorities to deny any involvement in the delivery of their UAVs to Russia.

However, on November 5, 2022, Iran was forced to acknowledge the transfer of drones to Russia. Specifically, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian stated that Iran had indeed supplied drones to Russia, but did so before the start of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine. 

In May 2023, then-White House National Security Council Coordinator John Kirby announced that the United States had discovered new indications that Iran was continuing to sell armed drones and other weapons to Russia, despite the ban imposed by a UN Security Council resolution. He reported that Tehran had already provided Russia with artillery and tank shells for use against targets in Ukraine, and continued to supply suicide drones to Russian forces. He emphasized that Iran was thus directly contributing to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

“Interaction between Iran and Russia on the sale of advanced weapons, particularly advanced UAVs, continues,” a US administration official noted.

The White House, citing US intelligence, reported that Iran is providing Russia with materials for the construction of a drone production plant. The Russian plant could be operational as early as early 2024.

Currently, Russia’s total capacity for producing attack drones amounts to approximately 50,000 units per year.  For example, the Yelabuga plant was built with the direct participation of Iranian specialists. Its design capacity was 6,000 drones per year. After reconstruction, this capacity increased to 10,000. There is also a similar enterprise, Kupol (Izhevsk), producing up to 15,000 drones per year, and Kronshtadt (Dubny, Moscow Region).

It should be noted that since the beginning of the large-scale invasion, the Russians have used more than 57,000 Shahed-type attack drones against Ukraine.

According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, although Ukrainians never threatened Iran, the Iranian regime chose to be Putin’s accomplice and supplied him with Shahed drones, not only the drones themselves but also the technology. “Iran also provided Russia with other weapons,” he said.

Regarding Iran’s transfer of Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar short-range ballistic missiles to Russia, I note that the first reports date back to 2022. On October 16, 2022, the American newspaper Washington Post, citing two intelligence officials from a US ally, reported that Moscow wanted to acquire Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles from Tehran.  with a range of 300 and 700 km, respectively.

 A Pentagon spokesman said at a briefing on October 31, 2022, that they do not yet have information regarding Iran supplying Russia with these missiles, but at the same time did not deny this possibility.

On September 19, 2023, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu, during a visit to Tehran, discussed the expiration of the UN Security Council resolution’s missile restrictions with Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani.

Declared by Tehran  The tactical and technical characteristics of these missiles are as follows:

Fateh-110: range – 300 km, warhead weight (explosives) – up to 650 kg

Zolfaghar: range – 700 km, warhead weight (explosives) – up to 580 kg

The Fateh-110 is an Iranian surface-to-surface ballistic missile produced by the Iranian Aerospace Industries Organization. It is in service with the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps).

US intelligence believes that Iran may have more than 3,000 ballistic missiles of various types, while the number of cruise missiles is much greater.

The main problem with these missiles is that the Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar are ballistic missiles, which are extremely difficult to intercept. The only way to disable a ballistic missile is through a kinetic interception, where another missile collides with it. Only the Patriot PAC 3 and the Franco-Italian  SAMP/T. 

According to US intelligence estimates, cruise missiles may have been part of the Russian-Iranian arms deal. Iran has a large number of them. For example, these may include the Meshkat missiles, which are very similar in performance to the Russian Kh-55, which has been used in strikes against Ukraine since the beginning of the war (range 600 kilometers, warhead weight 960 kilograms, accuracy of 600 meters).

According to the BBC, Russia’s production of shorter-range missiles was limited by the INF Treaty, which was in effect from 1988 to 2019. The occupying power, like the United States, was prohibited from testing and deploying ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with shorter and intermediate ranges (1,000 to 5,500 km). The treaty did not prohibit the design of such missiles, but Russia was by no means able to build a large arsenal before the war.

It should be noted that at one time, the director of Israeli intelligence, Mossad, David Barnea, stated that Iran intends to transfer short- and long-range missiles to Russia in addition to the Shahed kamikaze drones.

On January 17, 2025, the presidents of Russia and Iran signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement in Moscow. According to Russian state propaganda agencies, it “covers all areas, including defense, counterterrorism, energy, finance, transportation, industry, agriculture, culture, science, and technology.”

According to the Financial Times, Iran and Russia signed an agreement in December 2025.  a contract for the supply of Iva anti-aircraft missile systems worth almost 500 million euros. 

Let me remind you,  Following US and Israeli strikes on Iranian infrastructure, the region entered a phase of proxy warfare. Iran’s allies have stepped up attacks on US bases and the facilities of US partners in the Middle East. 

This includes missile and drone strikes against US military installations, attacks on maritime infrastructure, and attempts to overload the air defense systems of Washington’s allies in the region. In effect, a symmetrical response is being carried out through a network of proxy structures.

This automatically increases the need for air defense systems in the region.

According to Western analysts, some of Washington’s allies are already facing a shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles due to the intensity of attacks. Global production capacity for these missiles is limited: Patriot interceptor production takes months, and the intensity of their use in two theaters of war—Ukraine and the Middle East—is placing unprecedented strain on the US and partner defense industries.

At the same time, there is also a counterproductive effect. If Iran’s military-industrial or logistics infrastructure is significantly weakened, Russia could lose stable supply lines for drones, missile components, and ammunition. This would impact the intensity of strikes on Ukrainian territory and limit Moscow’s ability to compensate for its own production shortfalls.

This means that for Ukraine, the American operation has a dual dimension: a strategic opportunity to weaken one of the Kremlin’s main military partners and the tactical risk of a temporary air defense shortage due to a global overload of the systems.

That’s why Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced in London that Ukraine had requested consultations with air defense specialists. Britain is seeking to learn from Ukraine’s experience in repelling massive drone and missile attacks. Ukraine agreed to provide expert assistance, as it effectively has the world’s most extensive practical experience in countering “shahid” and ballistic terrorism.

So, the US operation against Iran is not an isolated Middle Eastern affair. It is part of a broader geopolitical restructuring, in which Iran, Russia, Ukraine, and the global air defense system find themselves in the same strategic equation.

According to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, Ukraine is ready to help every nation to increase security and justice and reduce terrorist regimes.

“It’s important that the United States is determined. And whenever America is determined, global criminals are weakened. The Russians should also come to a similar understanding. We hope that ultimately the Middle East will become more secure and stable. Much has already been done to achieve this,” the President emphasized.