From the “March of Justice” to a New Time of Troubles: Are There Preconditions for the Emergence of a New Military Opposition?

Discontent is mounting in the Russian army over “meat assaults,” the torture of soldiers by command, and suicidal orders. This was exemplified by the public demarche of former military commander Alexander Lunin, who openly threatened Putin with a new military revolt.

The appearance of these video messages  evoked associations in the Ukrainian media with the events of 2023, when the founder of the Wagner PPK, Yevgeny Prigozhin, organized  the so-called “march of justice”.

However, the events of June 2023 should not be viewed as a genuine attempt at rebellion against Putin. The point is that  the so-called “march of justice”  a clearly planned multi-vector operation by Russian special services (primarily the FSB), aimed at solving the internal and external tasks of the Kremlin.

This  It wasn’t Prigozhin’s own initiative. Prigozhin has never been an independent player in Russian politics. Prigozhin is a product of the Russian secret services. He was part of Putin’s inner circle. Kiriyenko and other officials stood behind him. Therefore, it was and is not possible to speak of Prigozhin’s independence. 

I would like to point out that the protracted public standoff between Prigozhin and the leadership of the Russian Ministry of Defense (Shoigu and Gerasimov) was coordinated by Russian intelligence agencies from the very beginning. It was precisely because of his public statements that Russian society gradually prepared for personnel changes in the military leadership.

After the failure of the initial stage of a full-scale war, the Kremlin needed to find those responsible for the failures at the front and, at the same time, prevent the emergence of real military opposition.

Notably, a March 12, 2023, report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted that Putin was allegedly looking for “scapegoats” to blame for Russia’s failures in the war against Ukraine. According to ISW representatives, Prigozhin should be one of these “scapegoats.”

However, no conflict existed. And the Institute for the Study of War’s statements were not the first to demonstrate a complete misunderstanding of the situation by its so-called analysts. The so-called “March of Justice” was provoked precisely to prevent the emergence of military opposition. 

The Kremlin used Prigozhin’s march as a litmus test to uncover hidden enemies and unreliable elements within the Russian Defense Ministry, the security services, and the civilian elite. The events allowed for a large-scale purge of the Russian armed forces, removing or isolating generals who had shown disloyalty or supported criticism of Shoigu (in particular, General Surovikin).

This operation by Russian intelligence services was aimed at misinforming the Ukrainian side and Western intelligence about a “schism” within Russia’s military-political leadership, attempting to provoke premature or erroneous steps at the front. Furthermore,  The staged rebellion allowed the Kremlin to painlessly liquidate the Wagner Group’s autonomy, subordinate its fighters to the Ministry of Defense, and transfer its African assets under the direct control of the GRU and FSB.

I note that the likelihood of a successful military or oligarchic rebellion against Vladimir Putin is assessed as low, although hidden lines of tension are growing within the Russian system.  In response, the Kremlin has increased security to an unprecedented level, and is rigorously purging potential internal threats. Putin regularly rotates and arrests senior military leaders (for example, isolating Sergei Shoigu’s cordon) to prevent anyone from forming a coalition for a coup.

Businessmen and top officials are dissatisfied with isolation and sanctions, but are paralyzed by fear. Most members of the so-called “elite” prefer to simply wait for the dictator’s natural death, as any action against him carries mortal risk. The security apparatus instantly reacts to the slightest sign of disloyalty, making a secret conspiracy impossible.

The general consensus among analysts, as documented in BBC reports, is that while nervousness among the Russian elite is high, it is premature to talk about a real existential threat to the regime right now. The security apparatus controls the situation within the country.

Also follow “Pryamy” on Facebook , X , Telegram and Instagram.

Materials published in the “THOUGHTS” section reflect the opinion of the author of the publication, who bears full responsibility for the accuracy of the information.
• The editorial board of prm.ua may not share the opinions expressed in the author’s material.
• The owner of the web page in the “THOUGHTS” section is the author of the publication.