Gas exports from Russia to Europe have fallen to their lowest level in a decade

Russia has lowered its forecast for natural gas production and liquefied gas exports for 2026. Moscow revised its expectations against the backdrop of reduced energy ties with the West and the European Union’s plans to abandon Russian gas.

Reuters reports this.

The Russian Ministry of Economy expects the country to produce 683.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2026. This is 5.3 billion cubic meters less than the May forecast.

At the same time, Russia still expects to increase production compared to 2025, when it amounted to 662.7 billion cubic meters. Moscow plans to take the updated forecast into account when adjusting the federal budget until 2029.

The Russian authorities have also downgraded their forecast for liquefied natural gas exports. In 2026, Moscow expects to export 35 million tons of LNG, compared to 30.3 million tons in 2025.

The new forecast is 5.3 million tons lower than the previous estimate. Russia expects further growth in LNG exports in the coming years, but at a slower pace than previously forecast.

The revision of expectations comes against the backdrop of a sharp reduction in Russian gas supplies to Europe. The European Union plans to completely abandon Russian gas from 2027.

According to Reuters estimates, Russia will cut gas supplies to Europe by 44% in 2025, to about 18 billion cubic meters. This is the lowest level since the mid-1970s. One of the reasons was the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine.

For comparison, in 2018-2019, Russia supplied about 180 billion cubic meters of pipeline gas to Europe each year.

Moscow says it is ready to resume gas supplies to European countries, in particular through the surviving branch of Nord Stream.

As a reminder, the German Alternative for Germany party confirmed negotiations with Russia’s Gazprom regarding the possible resumption of gas supplies from Russia to Germany . The AfD’s representative for foreign policy, Markus Frohnmeier, personally discussed this issue with Gazprom’s head, Alexei Miller, in Moscow.