Gas station conspiracy or global trends: what determines the price of fuel?

The Ukrainian fuel market is fully integrated into the global system and cannot exist separately. Any price changes at gas stations in Kyiv or Lviv are an echo of events on global exchanges, so currently the main factor of uncertainty remains US foreign policy and the unpredictable steps of the American president.

This opinion was expressed on the air of “Pryamoy” by investment banker Serhiy Fursa.

“What happens to our fuel prices depends entirely on what happens to the price of oil on the world market. And that, in turn, depends on what’s in Donald Trump’s head,” he explained.

Fursa rejected accusations that gasoline prices are rising faster in Ukraine than in Europe. On the contrary, over the past week in Germany, France and Finland, prices have jumped much more significantly – this was a reaction to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, in particular to the US actions against Iran. The Ukrainian increase of 6 hryvnias is only part of this global trend, the investment banker emphasizes.

At the same time, he warned the Ukrainian authorities against using methods of administrative control over the cost of fuel. According to the banker, forcing state-owned companies to sell the resource at undervalued prices will result in multi-billion losses, which will later be covered by all taxpayers. He recalled that similar experiences in the past have already led to deficits.

“If we force Ukrnafta to buy expensively and sell cheaply… it will be a loss for the state-owned company. Naftogaz has been operating like this for quite some time… All this falls on you and me, on the taxpayers,” Fursa noted.

The banker believes that subsidizing fuel for all categories of drivers is unfair. In this case, the poorer segments of the population will actually pay for refueling expensive SUVs. Instead of interfering in pricing, the state should focus on ensuring that there is a sufficient amount of gasoline and diesel on the market for the economy and farmers to operate, – Serhiy Fursa is convinced.

We will remind, against the background of the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East, the cost of diesel fuel in Ukraine has increased and in the future the price may reach almost 90 hryvnias per liter . Fuel market expert Serhiy Kuyun reported that recently diesel fuel has become more expensive by 18% or almost 30 hryvnias per liter. Kuyun explained that long-term contracts are concluded not at fixed prices, but at those that take into account data from the exchange and quotation agencies.

It was previously reported that the government plans to stabilize the situation on the fuel market and curb price increases. To do this, they will strengthen control over operators and involve state-owned companies. After a meeting with the management of Naftogaz of Ukraine and representatives of relevant ministries, Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said that one of the key stabilization tools will be the state-owned company Ukrnafta.

Meanwhile, global oil prices have topped $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022 as tensions in the Middle East escalate, with investors weighing the risks of prolonged energy supply disruptions.

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