How long will Russia be able to continue the war: the GUR made a forecast
фото: ЦПД
The Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Lieutenant General Oleg Ivashchenko, stated that Russia has the military and economic resources to continue the war, but they may run out by 2028. This is influenced by significant losses of personnel, a decline in morale, and the depletion of the Russian economy.
He said this in an interview with The Times .
According to Western intelligence agencies, Russia is losing 6,000 more soldiers each month than it can mobilize. According to Ukrainian estimates, Russia’s total losses since the start of the full-scale invasion have exceeded 1.5 million people, about 450,000 of whom have died.
“Russia has military and economic resources for next year, but, according to our estimates, they will be exhausted by 2028. The Russian Federation is attracting about 1,000-1,200 people every day, but look at the loss figures: the other day it was 1,410 people, the day before – 1,511. Of these, about 60% are those killed in battle,” Ivashchenko noted.
According to analytical calculations, another 1.5 years of fighting could cost Russia at least 765,800 casualties, of which over 459,000 are dead. According to the head of intelligence, significant losses have already led to a decline in morale among the Russian military and the civilian population.
Ivashchenko also noted the significant weakening of the Russian economy compared to the beginning of the full-scale invasion. One of the factors, he said, was the regular strikes by Ukrainian drones on Russia’s oil refining infrastructure, which resulted in the shutdown of about 40% of the refinery’s capacity.
Earlier, the deputy head of the GUR, Vadim Skibitsky, stated that Russia is currently not showing signs of readiness to cease fire and move on to full-fledged peace negotiations . The GUR believes that Moscow continues to count on achieving its goals on the battlefield.
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