IMF downgrades global economic growth forecast: what is the reason?

The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday again lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.0%.

Reuters reports this.

The IMF noted that the deterioration in the forecast is related to the war in the Middle East, fragmentation of world trade, and possible changes in market expectations regarding the development of artificial intelligence (AI).

At the same time, the Fund predicts that in 2027, the growth rate of the global economy will recover to 3.4%, but this will still be below the average of 3.5% recorded in 2024–2025.

According to the IMF, the growth rate of world trade in 2026 will slow to 3.5% compared to 5% in 2025. The Fund noted that last year, international trade showed some acceleration on the eve of the introduction of new tariffs by the United States. At the same time, growth is expected to resume in 2027 to 4.3%.

The IMF also noted that the global economy has generally weathered the shock of the war better than expected and avoided a major recession. Strong demand for technology has partially offset the negative impact of reduced energy supplies.

At the same time, the Fund raised its global inflation forecast for 2026 to 4.7% (0.3 percentage points higher than in the April forecast), expecting it to slow to 3.9% in 2027. The IMF also noted that energy prices remain about 25% higher than before the war and are unlikely to return to their previous levels in the near future.

It was previously reported thatUkraine is awaiting a decision from the International Monetary Fund’s Board of Directors on a new tranche of $690 million. The meeting to approve the payment is planned to be held by mid-July.

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