IMF predicts end of war in Ukraine

The International Monetary Fund expects that fighting in Ukraine could end by the end of 2025.

This is stated in the organization’s press release .

The IMF notes that negotiations to end the war have not yet yielded results, so the risks of its duration and intensity remain high. The fund also warned that the cooperation program with Ukraine has limited capabilities and may not withstand new challenges if the war drags on or escalates, but there is still time to carry out reforms in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 remains at 2-3%, with budget changes expected to have little impact due to high imports, while a higher harvest will support the economy. Inflation is expected to fall to 9% year-on-year by the end of the year, thanks to a slowdown in food price growth in the second half of the year and tight monetary policy.

At the same time, the IMF predicts an increase in the current account deficit without grants by 1.7% of GDP due to an increase in imports, including gas, and a reduction in agricultural exports.

The fund also emphasized that Ukraine’s needs for additional defense funding have grown, so the state budget provides for an increase in spending by 5.8% of GDP, which will require the adoption of a new financial package.

Let us recall that earlier Ukraine reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund on the eighth revision of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF), opening the way to receiving the next tranche in the amount of about 500 million dollars.

As reported, the IMF recommended that Ukraine raise taxes in order to increase budget revenues from 2026 .

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