IMF revises global economic growth forecast: what to expect in 2026

The investment boom in artificial intelligence is helping the global economy weather the effects of rising energy prices. Thanks to the resilience of advanced economies, the International Monetary Fund has slightly improved its global growth forecast for 2026. At the same time, high energy prices and war in the Middle East continue to pose risks for many countries.

This is stated in the IMF World Economic Outlook, released on Tuesday, October 13.

The Fund expects global GDP to grow by 3.1% this year. The July forecast was for 3%. However, the growth rate will remain lower than in 2025, when the global economy grew by 3.5%. For 2027, the IMF maintained its forecast at 3.4%.

The fund’s chief economist, Silvana Tenreiro, said the global economy is showing resilience, but its ability to withstand new shocks is gradually weakening. She said countries need to rebuild financial reserves and strengthen the resilience of supply chains.

Investment in AI infrastructure remains a key driver of economic growth, driving growth in developed countries as well as in countries that supply equipment to the industry, including South Korea and Taiwan.

However, the technological boom distributes economic benefits unevenly. Countries that are not involved in the production of equipment and the development of AI receive fewer benefits and at the same time suffer more from rising energy prices.

The conflict between the US and Iran has led to a sustained rise in oil prices, while Russia’s war against Ukraine and instability in the Middle East continue to threaten global energy markets. Countries that are dependent on fuel imports and have limited financial resources are most at risk.

The IMF estimates that economic growth in the eurozone will be 1.1% in 2026, accelerating to 1.2% in 2027. The region’s outlook is affected by high energy costs and lack of consumer confidence.

An additional risk remains the situation in the gas market. In some parts of Europe, gas reserves are below seasonal norms, which increases the vulnerability of the region to possible cold snaps ahead of the heating season.

Eurozone inflation is forecast to be 3.1% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027. Both rates are above the European Central Bank’s 2% target. To contain price increases, the central bank may need to keep interest rates at levels that constrain consumer spending and investment activity.

Among the largest economies in Europe, Spain maintains the best dynamics: the IMF expects its GDP to grow by 2.5% in 2026. For Germany, the forecast is 1.3%.

In contrast, the French economy, according to the fund, will grow by only 0.4% compared to 0.9% in 2025. At the same time, the unemployment rate in the country may increase from 7.7% last year to 8.4% this year.

The IMF has raised its UK economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points to 1.3%. The fund cites increased investment in artificial intelligence as one of the factors supporting the British economy.

Overall, the developed economies of the world are expected to grow by an average of 2.1% in 2026. At the same time, countries involved in the production chains of the technology sector may show better results.

For China, the world’s second-largest economy, the IMF forecasts GDP growth of 4.5%. This is 0.5 percentage points less than last year. The main reason for the slowdown remains weak domestic demand, which is further pressured by high oil prices.

The forecast for the US remained at 2.3% in 2026. The fund also raised its estimate of US economic growth for 2027 to 2.3%.

At the same time, the IMF expects global inflation to reach 4.7% in 2026. Its acceleration is being driven by rising energy prices due to the war with Iran and increased spending related to the technological boom. These factors affect both developed countries and emerging economies.

It was previously reported that inflation in Ukraine accelerated to 10% year-on-year in September. The prices of eggs, clothing and footwear, and educational services rose the most over the month.

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