In Germany, the pro-Russian AfD party may head the federal state government for the first time: why is this important for Ukraine
Saxony-Anhalt will hold state elections on September 6, in which the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) could have its first chance to lead the state government. According to the latest polls, the AfD is supported by around 40-43% of voters, while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is more than 15 percentage points behind.
This is reported by Politico .
The elections to the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament will be held on September 6, 2026. The residents of the state will elect a parliament for a term of 5 years.
Each voter has 2 votes: the first – for the candidate in their district, the second – for the party. The country is divided into 41 districts, and to pass on party lists, a 5 percent threshold must be overcome. In the 2021 elections, the CDU received 37.1% of the vote, and the AfD – 20.8%.
The AfD is well ahead of the CDU ahead of the election. According to a Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll, the party has 41% support compared to 23% for the CDU. The INSA poll gave the AfD 43% and the CDU 22%.
The AfD could thus become the largest party in the state parliament. However, even over 40% of the vote does not guarantee it an absolute majority and the automatic appointment of its candidate Ulrich Sigmund as state prime minister.
All major parties are refusing to form a coalition with the AfD. At the same time, the CDU is not ready to officially cooperate with the Left, which could complicate government formation and create a situation in which a minority government would have to be formed.
Why is the AfD called pro-Russian?
The AfD opposes further German arms sales to Ukraine, sanctions against Russia, and supports the resumption of economic relations with Moscow. The party also advocates the resumption of Nord Stream and opposes Ukraine’s accession to NATO and the EU.
The AfD program in Saxony-Anhalt calls for ending the recognition of Ukrainians as war refugees and strengthening migration policies. The party also proposes changes to the state’s education and cultural policies.
What can the AFN change?
The AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt will not allow the party to independently change Germany’s foreign policy, stop military aid to Ukraine, lift EU sanctions, or withdraw the country from NATO.
At the same time, the state government has powers in the areas of education, culture, migration policy and a large part of internal administration. The AfD will also be able to influence the work of state authorities and the police.
The state’s representation in the Bundesrat is also important. Saxony-Anhalt has 4 votes, which the state government uses when considering federal laws. If the AfD comes to power, this will become an additional tool for the party to exert political influence at the federal level.
What does this mean for Ukraine?
The elections will not directly determine military aid to Ukraine, as defense and foreign policy issues remain the responsibility of the federal government.
However, a AfD victory would have political significance. For the first time, the party could gain real executive power at the federal state level and demonstrate its ability to govern.
This could strengthen its position at the national level and increase pressure on traditional parties. This is important for Ukraine because of the ADN’s clearly pro-Russian position on war, sanctions, and military aid.
Why is this important for Merz and Germany?
If the AfD gets over 40% and significantly ahead of the CDU, it would be a serious political blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who leads the CDU.
The election will also show how strong the AfD has become in Germany’s eastern states. If the party becomes the largest but fails to form a government, traditional political forces will have to look for difficult options for a coalition or minority government.
The Saxony-Anhalt election is part of a wider September election cycle. On September 20, voting will take place in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, where the AfD also shows strong support.
Recall that NATO fears that after the presidential elections in France in 2027, the new head of state may withdraw the country from the Alliance’s integrated military command . Such a scenario could weaken NATO’s military coordination and call into question French participation in joint forces and operations.
Earlier, the Paris prosecutor’s office opened an investigation into possible Russian interference in the upcoming presidential campaign in France . Law enforcement officers are investigating the spread of fake news about potential candidates Gabriel Attal, Edouard Philippe, and Raphael Glucksmann.
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