ISW: Russia may capture Myrnograd in a “cauldron” after capturing Pokrovsk

Russia will probably be able to completely capture Pokrovsk and bring Myrnograd into the “cauldron” by the end of the year.

This assessment was given in an interview with RBC-Ukraine by analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Jessica Sobieski and Jenny Olmstead.

Experts emphasize that the loss of Pokrovsk will not lead to an immediate breakthrough of the Ukrainian defense in the Donetsk region. The situation is due to the nature of the war, the presence of powerful field fortifications and the difficult terrain. At the same time, the fall of the city will allow the Russian Federation to free up significant combat resources, which it will be able to transfer to other areas of the front, including units of at least two combined arms armies.

Analysts also emphasize that by the end of the year, Russia may use the time to prepare positional battles in the direction of Kostyantynivka and Hulyaipol for 2026. The penetration into Kostyantynivka began at the end of September 2025, with Russian troops trying to bypass the strongholds of the Ukrainian Defense Forces and gradually accumulate personnel behind the defense lines.

“The Russians have managed to achieve only minor progress and limited penetration into the eastern areas of Kostyantynivka. An attempt to capture one of the most fortified cities in the “belt” will require significant resources. The complete capture of the Donetsk region and the fortification belt is possible no earlier than 2027-2028, provided that international support for Ukraine continues,” the analysts note.

In addition, the Russian Federation may try to achieve tactical successes in Hulyaipol, Zaporizhia region. The capture of the city by the end of the year is unlikely, but Russia may create conditions for surrounding the settlement and preparing for battles there in 2026.

As a reminder, on December 11 , the military of the Ukrainian Defense Forces raised the blue-and-yellow flag in the center of Pokrovsk, Donetsk region , a city for which fierce fighting is currently taking place.

As reported, Russian occupation forces are trying to advance into unoccupied areas of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, taking advantage of weather conditions.

By the way, on November 15, users of the gaming platform Polymarket placed bets on whether Myrnograd, Donetsk Oblast, would be occupied before nightfall. Bets on the “impossible” brought individual investors profits of up to 33,000%, even though the city was controlled by Ukrainian forces.

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