Kozak’s resignation and Russian drones in Poland – a multi-vector information operation by the Kremlin

Russian dictator Putin has officially dismissed Dmitry Kozak from his position as deputy head of Russia’s “presidential administration.”

It is noteworthy that Kozak’s resignation is presented in the media as the dismissal of the “dove of peace” because of his position against the war in Ukraine. For example, the “Institute for the Study of War” links Kozak’s dismissal to differences of opinion with Vladimir Putin. According to “analysts”, Kozak insisted on negotiations with Ukraine, and the decision to resign indicates the desire of the Russian ruler to continue to fight with Ukraine.

“Putin’s likely decision to oust a prominent senior Kremlin official from his inner circle after expressing a desire to end the war in Ukraine further demonstrates that Putin and his advisers are coalescing around their commitment to continuing the war in Ukraine and around Putin’s maximalist military demands,” the report said .

Citing numerous publications in Russian media, the Institute for the Study of War stated that Kozak had lost his influence in the Kremlin after advising Putin over the past few months to immediately cease hostilities in Ukraine, begin peace talks, and reduce the influence of Russian security services.

Instead, in my opinion, this can be seen as an informational “throw” by the Kremlin about the radicalization of the Russian position on the war.

The information from the Russian side regarding Kozak’s resignation as a representative of the “peace party” is completely untrue. I will explain why.

Kozak was responsible for the post-Soviet space, not only Ukraine, but all the post-Soviet republics, including Moldova, Georgia, Belarus. And it was Kozak who proposed the idea of the Moldovan scenario, that is, the so-called Transnistrian-Moldavian Republic, but on the territory of Ukraine.

During the so-called “Minsk meetings”, the Russian side spread information about Kozak as a more liberal person, unlike Surkov. Information was then thrown into the Ukrainian media that the scenario for resolving the war in Eastern Ukraine proposed by Kozak would be more favorable for Ukraine. But this did not correspond to reality.

Kozak was once associated with the so-called “Moldovan settlement process.” It was he who in 2003 proposed the “Kozak formula” for Moldova – an analogue of the “Steinmeier formula.” It envisaged the federalization of Moldova, the actual demilitarization of the Moldovan army, and the curtailment of integration processes into the EU and NATO. Plus, they put forward the idea of granting a special status not only to Transnistria, but also to Gagauzia. Therefore, those who then said that the arrival of Kozak instead of Surkov was a positive thing for Ukraine are useful idiots.

In 2003, the Moldovan leadership, represented by then-President Voronin, had enough political will to reject these proposals by Kozak. Although he had previously agreed to them. Another thing is that there was US intervention at that time.

Even then, there was a proposal to create a pro-Russian enclave, which de jure would be part of Ukraine, but de facto would be subordinate to the Russian Federation. It was Kozak who then promoted the idea of the so-called “DPR” and “LPR” entering the political circle of Ukraine. And this would be even worse for Ukraine than a frozen conflict. Because we would get a time bomb under the foundation of Ukrainian statehood.

So what “dove of peace” are we being told about now? In fact, the preconditions for a frozen conflict were created, following the example of Karabakh or Transnistria.

By announcing the departure of alleged opponents of the war from Putin’s entourage, the Kremlin is trying to advance the thesis that Russia is being radicalized and that the “hawks” party is winning, conditionally. This is happening against the backdrop of other interrelated events.

I include the appearance of the Russian dictator in military uniform at the Zapad-2025 exercises among such events.

The media emphasizes that during the entire large-scale invasion, he only wore a military uniform twice. The first time was during a visit to the Kursk region.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Putin’s appearance on September 16 in military uniform may be an attempt to “demonstrate Russian-Belarusian military power against the backdrop of escalation against NATO countries.”

The report specifically emphasizes that this is a “signal” for Poland, Norway, the Baltic countries, and Finland, which the Kremlin has been regularly threatening recently.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov and his deputies attended the exercise along with Putin.

But what is really happening? Why are the accents wrong?

And it is said that on the eve of this public appearance of Putin in military uniform, very revealing moments are taking place on the territory of Belarus. Namely, the presence of American military personnel at these same exercises. Moreover, the American military personnel are personally met by the Minister of Defense of Belarus Khrenin. And this indicates the warming of relations between the Republic of Belarus and the United States.

Russia cannot help but understand this. By the way, it is the visit of the American military and their meeting at the highest representative level that actually puts an end to the Russian Federation’s scenario regarding the possibility of a repeat of the events of February 2022: either an invasion of Ukraine or an invasion of the territory of NATO countries.

Accordingly, Putin, in order to keep a good face despite a bad game, comes out the next day in uniform – all military. But these two events cannot be separated. That is, the first event is Putin in military uniform, the second is the resignation, respectively, of Kozak, as a supposed representative of the “peace party.”

The conspicuous absence of the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, from the Zapad-2025 exercises is also part of the Kremlin’s information operations.

On the eve of Kozak’s resignation, the Russians actively promoted the version that Gerasimov could be removed because of his moderate positions. And instead, appoint a more radical person in his place, who would, accordingly, escalate the tension on the front line. That is, they are trying to convince us that the Russian Federation has escalated the situation.

And these are information operations. And all this is happening against the backdrop of a possible meeting between Zelensky and Trump, which has been postponed, and Trump’s statements about the possibility of a trilateral meeting between Putin and Zelensky. And accordingly, most importantly, on the eve of the adoption by the European Commission of the 19th package of sanctions, which has been postponed.

All these informational influences occur simultaneously with the appearance of Russian drones in Polish airspace, when the Russian Federation went to “raise the stakes.”

It is noteworthy that on the eve of the Zapad-2025 military exercises, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Kirill Budanov, reported that from the first days of the Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 exercises, there will be a strong information pressure. Most of the information will come from the Russian side.

“These exercises, after the events of 2022 in Ukraine, have received clearly defined boundaries of perception. They are beginning to be perceived no longer as exercises, but as something, perhaps more than just military maneuvers. And therein lies the problem,” he said.

According to the head of the GUR, from the first days of the active phase of the exercises, there will be a furious wave of information escalation.

“The attacks will come from absolutely all sides. 90 percent will be Russian, 10 percent, unfortunately, will be others. Hysteria will be ramped up,” he said.

That is, this is a multi-vector information operation by the Russian side. First, provocations, joint exercises, Putin in military uniform, Kozak’s resignation, possibly Gerasimov’s resignation.

It is worth noting that the Russian propaganda machine is constantly increasing the intensity of anti-Ukrainian actions in the information space, expanding the topics of information aggression and increasing pressure on our society with the aim, as they say, of “scaring” the enemy.

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