Mass defaults and fraud: Russia is confidently moving towards a debt crisis

Russia’s largest banks, including Sberbank and VTB, have begun preparing for a debt crisis.

This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine.

“Given the high discount rate and the deterioration of the financial condition of borrowers, leading Russian banks, including Sberbank and VTB, are preparing for a wave of defaults in late 2025 – early 2026. The volume of overdue debt on consumer loans has reached 1.5 trillion rubles – the highest level in the last six years,” the intelligence agency noted.

VTB stated that problem loans account for 5% of the total, and their share may increase to 7% next year.

During the annual shareholders’ meeting, Sberbank CEO Gref admitted that the situation in 2026 will be “difficult” given the increasing pressure of restructuring.

The Russian banking system is showing signs of strain. It is experiencing massive outflows: for the first time this year, bond mutual funds have overtaken cash funds in terms of inflows. Since the beginning of the year, these funds have received over $2.5 billion.

“Another signal is the growth of financial fraud. VTB has recorded a surge in schemes targeting borrowers who are unable to service their debts. Non-payments cover both the retail and corporate segments, increasing the risks of a banking crisis,” the SZR noted.

It is noted that Russian banks are increasing the volume of restructuring to reduce the damage from the crisis. However, if the dynamics continue, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will begin non-transparent support for Russian financial institutions.

It was previously reported that Russia’s coal industry is in crisis due to the loss of the European market and falling world prices. A third of enterprises are on the verge of closure .

As reported, the war against Ukraine, sanctions, and increased spending on the military-industrial complex have led to an increase in prices for basic food products in Russia.

In addition, ordinary Russians are massively defaulting on their credit card debts . Payments on 8.3 million credit cards are overdue for more than three months.

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